The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Tattyhead61.
I also thought about your suggested nefarious scenario, when considering how my investment might evolve post Feb 21. It is a possibility, yes. A dirty deal, yes, but would a large Pharma be breaking any laws if they proceeded with it? I have no idea, although it has transpired that large companies have a chequered history when acquiring smaller companies for their IP. The current legal tangle between Samsung and Nanoco regarding the latter's quantum dots is a good example.
In our case, we are still in the middle of a serious pandemic despite Governments apparently being in denial about it, because of their wish to get their economies back on track. Consequently, the sooner that a pharmaceutical company can get a viable therapy to market, the sooner the accompanying revenues will start flowing into their coiffeurs. I still live in hope that Synairgen will be taken over for a price that is deemed fair by most investors. The current incumbents have had their opportunity to bring their product to market. They have fallen due to their poorly conducted trials. They should have learned a lesson from the P2 Home Trial, but were careless once again with the very important Sprinter trial. If it is left to Synairgen to bring the "game changing" SNG001 to market, it could well take years. Let us hope for a takeover at the earliest possible opportunity. A win-win for all concerned, including the Synairgen team.
Regards, and good fortune to you, and to all Synairgen investors.
Hi red381.
With 180K shares, they might even give you a key to the company washroom? I currently hold about a third of that amount, which qualifies me for a friendly wave should I walk by their office.
It is good to see some interest starting to ebb again. We need a positive piece of news to set the trades flowing. The future is very bright for this company, in my view. I have little idea as to the timescale involved, but intend to hold all my shares for the long term, or at least until I establish good profit margin in my shareholding.
Good fortune to you, and to all IQ-AI investors.
Agreed Doc83.
Considering the huge depreciation that most long term holders' Synairgen investment is currently suffering, there is little point in adopting a worst cast scenario pessimistic outlook. The alternative to holding an optimistic viewpoint is selling up at the current share price, and sustaining a huge loss. That would be of some benefit to traders and possibly short-term sellers, who are currently circling like carrion crows. (FTC7 - from your recent posts you are presenting a passable impersonation of being in one of the latter categories?). I intend to continue as a bag holder. As previously stated, I hope that the company will step up from its University spinoff mentality, and improve its performance in all categories.
Good fortune to you, and all Synairgen Long Term Holders.
A lot of sense has been contributed to this board today. The bottom line is that investors' best hope for a swift upturn from the current trading range lies with the imminent Sprinter deep dive data. Subsequently, the ACTIV-2 P2 should provide further support. Until then, we are dancing in the dark. Background research supports the fact that SNG001 is a potentially valuable treatment, but the poorly presented results of a trial that suffered from inadequate planning suggests otherwise? The latter is what the market has taken on board, hence the current baseline MCap.
The share price is receiving little help from online free sites for investors in the USA. ( I cannot judge their quality, but they are probably not highly respected sources?). The language used In these articles is damning. I provided a link to one of these earlier today. I believe that this is a deliberate ploy, possibly by large pharmaceutical companies, who may be planning to make a bid at a bargain price. In this. I believe that an offer may be made in the range 150 - 200p? I cannot see that Polygon would contemplate a bid at a lower share price than their mean buy price? Presumably, they will bide their time, as will most LTHs? I can see future value in this product, and the same applies to all investors who have done any serious research.
Should the deep dive analysis prove to be fruitful, then the company will need to suit up, and present a case for progression to EUA. Their cowardly retreat following "that RNS" has resulted in the condemnatory articles that I mentioned earlier. Had a senior company executive with appropriate presentation skills defended SNG001 using the vast amount of available evidence, then these negatively biased articles might not have emerged, and the share price might be higher than the current two year low?
Good fortune to all Synairgen long term holders.
Agreed Tommy, although Prof Wilkinson hardly distinguished himself as the Study Official of the Sprinter trial.
Study Officials: Professor Tom Wilkinson
Principal Investigator
University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT04732949?A=8&B=9&C=merged#StudyPageTop
On the subject of trials, the failure of the Sprinter trial has been heavily documented online in the USA. All these articles seem to originate from a single source. One wonders whether large pharmaceutical companies are attempting to slow down the applications of competing therapies in the ACTIV trials using the usual dark arts? This makes the quality of the forthcoming deep-dive data very important towards enabling SNG001 to progress towards ACTIV trials and/or EUAs.
This article is a statement of obvious facts from "that RNS" but many negative messages on other sites have their origin from this source.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/synairgens-pivotal-covid-19-sprinter-trial-falls-final-hurdle-sending-stock-downward-spiral
Good fortune to all synairgen investors.
The epidemiologist and clinical trialist, Martin Landray, [RECOVERY trial co-director] is proactive on the subject of improving clinical trialling. He stated the following this week.
* There is still much more to be done.
* This pandemic is not over & still causes suffering around the world.
* We need even better treatments.
* We MUST apply this approach to other common diseases.
* When uncertain, don’t guess, randomise and learn.
* We must make trials easy & routine.
* https://www.goodtrials.org
They seem obvious, but I hope that someone in the Synairgen team is following Sir Martin on twitter, and that these key points will be quickly taken on board, and acted upon.
Good fortune to all Synairgen investors.
A warm thanks to Tommy and other contributors for pointing out that an EUA application may well be justified, once the imminent deep dive data from the Sprinter trial is published. If the company is as proactive in its actions as contributors on this board are in their research, we should be hearing something soon? It still feels like a long way from home, but every long journey commences with a few steps, and the next RNS might provide that starting point?
Good fortune to all Synairgen investors
Hi SNG2022.
I totally agree with you regarding DDD. In Synairgen's case they totally accentuated the negative, when there were positive arrows in their quiver to ameliorate the trial failure to meet its designated endpoints. A more positive statement could well have resulted in a less damaging outcome? Currently the company needs a x7 share price improvement merely to regain lost ground to the lower end of the pre-RNS trading range. They have a lot of hard work ahead of them. They need to shed their University spinoff mentality, and perform at a substantially higher level, reflecting the trust that investors placed in them in Nov 2020.
Good fortune to you and all long term Synairgen holders.
A range of perspectives as to the short to mid term future of Synairgen emerged following on from the good discussion that resulted from Tommy's excellent research yesterday. I refuse to be distracted by any abuse or negativity on this board. Consequently, my screen mostly shows references to useful articles, accompanied by sensible discussion. There is only one sure way to obliviate the distractors. Filtering and not replying to their unhelpful comments will achieve this. I believe that all contributors on my screen have no ulterior motive other than their strong desire to see Synairgen regain the ground that was lost following the Sprinter results announcement? I have remained invested and added substantially in anticipation of an upward re-rate once the company has more evidence at its disposal?
The polarisation in opinion ranges from a further fall in share price caused by a potential lack of substance in the P3 deep dive analysis, to the award of an EUA (presumably in the USA initially?) from the same data, further enhanced by the declaration of the ACTIV-2 P2 data later this year. Other scenarios are also possible, including the emergence of a takeover bid. Polygon will be influential whatever develops.
My motive was questioned on this board a few days ago. I found this surprising as I have always backed SNG001, and believe that it still has an active role to play in treating future Covid variant outbreaks when they emerge. Not only that, but also in the treatment of the symptoms of other viruses attacking the respiratory system. The time scale of future progression depends very much on Synairgen's response to the results of the ongoing remedial action. They will need to significantly improve their overall performance to move forward from their current position.
Good fortune to all genuine Synairgen investors. Let us remember that we are all on the same side although opinions on the current scenario differ for the present.
I filter all these miscreants at source. My main interest lies with the quality information supplied by the numerous contributors to this board, whose research skills are vastly superior to my own.
Many fine contributors have gone elsewhere post Feb 21. In their place some genuine investors have stepped up from reading to contributing. This is a good development.
Unfortunately we are also currently visited by inferior specimens of humanity ranging from the attention seeking and sadly to the intellectually challenged. Surely they don't honestly think that they are going to influence investors to change whatever strategies they are choosing to adopt? What then is their purpose in life, if indeed they have any at all? They are just like my breakfast coffee, best when filtered.
Good fortune to all Synairgen long term shareholders.
Tommy,
I look forward to the publication of the results of that study. I am anticipating an RNS when that analysis is complete, and prior to the peer review, which presumably will follow later? All long term investors, currently suffering from a depreciation of their assets, will hope that a compelling case for approval will emerge from the amalgamated data at some point this year. It is difficult to make predictions at this point in time, as there are unknowns that need to be resolved.
Regards, and thank you for sharing that information.
Thank you Kevin.
I agree that further trialling under the control of the company could well take it to late 2023. I am convinced about the viability of SNG001. Any future trial will need better planning and execution to guarantee a successful outcome, if that is too be he way forward. You mentioned Long Covid data. If that aspect of disease progression has been rigorously followed, the endpoints might well turn up trumps, and help the company towards verifying the effectiveness of SNG001.
Some of my recent contributions suggest disloyalty to Synairgen. The truth is that I want the company to succeed, but doubts about their capability have remained with me over the last month. The most important outcome is to bring the drug to market so that it can help help Covid sufferers with extreme breathing difficulties, and halt the progression of the disease towards long Covid symptoms. The quicker the route to market, the better it will be for all concerned.
My best wishes to you and your family. I hope that the Covid symptoms are dispelling, that you are all feeling much better, and will swiftly return to good health.
Aether, Kevin.
This is a legitimate hypothetical question. Certainly one to keep long term shareholders interested as we await an update.
The Feb 21 RNS has resulted in a decline of the share price trading range to approximately 14-15% or 1/7)of its pre RNS value. Presumably this is because in a single statement it went from being a potentially highly viable treatment with considerable value to a drug which had failed to reach its primary and secondary endpoints - literally overnight. The case for amelioration, which has been discussed here since then was not considered, as no value can be ascribed to it. Currently the company is valued at approximately 2X its cash reserves.
Investors are hoping that the company is working hard to restore commercial viability to SNG001. Its strategy is to amalgamate all available date (in stages as not all the data is currently available) and from it demonstrate a statistically significant case for commercialisation.
As a guesstimate, in the first instance, I would suggest that the market, being an unforgiving entity, is unlikely to reverse the process and restore Synairgen's pre RNS share price if the results of their current analysis is successful. I would suggest X3
increase in the first instance (approx 70p). Further positive input would propel it further upwards. As an investor, my preference would be for a successful takeover bid to emerge in order that the process of commercialisation can proceed at an appropriate pace. Synairgen have failed to demonstrate their proposed endpoints in two successive company trials. There is nothing to suggest that they have the capability to take their product further. This is not company bashing. I would be happy to be proven wrong. Until then, my doubts remain.
Regards and good wishes.
"What evidence is there that Polygon have thrown the towel in ?"
cmwww2014. On the contrary. They have recently increased their holding. It is currently in excess of 25% of the company's shares. They may indeed decide to accumulate further? I still hold some hope that a favourable outcome from the analysis of the combined data sets could well awaken the interest of major pharmaceutical companies? This being the case, Polygon may play an important role in extracting value for shareholders?
More hope than certainty, but worth hanging on to it for the time being.
Regards and good wishes. I also hope that the chicken continues to thrive following the positive attention it received from your stepdad.
Fair point Tommy,
I have held an optimistic outlook for a short-term resolution to the bad news that we all suffered four weeks ago. I have recently realised that there is a way forward, but that it is going to take longer than I had previously anticipated. In a previous career as an University research associate, I have worked with massive data sets to verify my hypotheses. It was literally 16 hour days in a relentless pursuit towards an endpoint. It dawned on me last weekend, that if Synairgen were doing the same (which I hope they would be), and if anything of merit were to emerge, surely there would be an initial announcement to the market by now? This may well be the case in the future, of course. We live in hope. The company's time taken to get a job done hardly flatter them. I am thinking of their P2 Home trial analysis. It took a disproportionately long time to publish those findings. When I read them, I was disappointed that they showed relatively little.
I appreciate your optimism, and the justifiable nuggets of hope that you are regularly sharing with this forum. They are big plus to the ongoing debate.
What I am trying to do is to temper my optimism. A month has elapsed since the massive disappointment of those Sprinter results, and there has been very little by way of a forward strategy from the company. I am merely tempering my optimism for the time being. Synairgen have presented us with a recent I would argue self-inflicted) major disappointment. I remain optimistic regarding SNG001's future, but would be more confident if the baton were passed into more competent hands.
Regards and good wishes.
I have come to terms with the fact that Synairgen is currently a stock residing in the foothills of the AIM mountain range.
There is potential for the future. All the published research concerning nebulised interferon beta, and the positive information gleaned from the company trials, to date suggests that it will eventually be brought to market, as a drug to assist in the treatment of the symptoms induced by viruses in the respiratory system.
For the time being, it has ground to a halt. Investors are faced with a choice, either to sell up and seek to recover their losses elsewhere or to remain with this investment?
In the very short term, my expectations are minimal. I would be very surprised if anything significant emerges from the current extended analysis of the company's data? Is this analysis ongoing, or are they waiting for the ACTIV-2 P2 data, which amalgamated with the company's data should provide a more comprehensive outcome? This is unclear, to my mind, from recent communication from the company.
It seems that they are intent on further trialling, but are as yet unclear as to how this will be achieved?
The strategy that Polygon may utilise to turn the current loss in value of their Synairgen investment to profit also remains unclear at present. They are my main source of optimism for the time being, although it is best not to hope for too much, and perhaps be surprised ?
My Synairgen position will be presumably that of a long-term bag holder. I have no intention of disposing of stock at these low values. The company can exist in a downsized format, resembling its incarnation of 2-3 years ago for a long time. Meanwhile SNG001 remains a precious jewel in their tarnished crown. Perhaps there may be a way forward, with or without the company, to finally release its value to the World and to the depleted portfolios of long-term investors?
Good fortune to all Synairgen LTHs.
Agreed Kevin, although the little we have heard from the company in the last months suggests that they are now considering a platform trial, and another as yet unspecified collaboration with the NIH. Investors will need to continue to patiently await the extended analysis of previous trials, and see what emerges from that?
Traders will continue to benefit from the current share price volatility, and good luck to them. For over invested long term holders like myself, there is a very long wait ahead of us as the present incumbents at Synairgen follow through from the previous under planned and under powered trial. I can only hope that Polygon may decide to participate in a quicker solution?
Regards and good wishes.
Doc83.
It is doable in the mid term, if there is a takeover? A favourable outcome to the enhanced analysis of all the trial data could significantly re-rate the share price ( X3 perhaps?). A takeover proposal could well get shareholders back to profit? (My own thoughts). SNG001 is the key to a successful outcome. As I see it the current leadership team lack the expertise and wherewithal to get it over the line.
Good fortune to you and all long term Synairgen investors. (If I keep repeating this mantra, it may eventually come to pass).
Agreed. The RNS issued on Feb 21 added insult to injury. It resulted in a fall of 93% (from a then relatively lowish price of 171p in seconds). This should never have been the case. Yesterday's unnecessary RNS had a similar though less severe outcome. My faith in SNG001 and its potential remains undiminished. The same cannot be said for Synairgen's decision makers. Too many mistakes have cost the company and its investors dearly. I am hopeful that there will be an eventual positive outcome to all this, although there may be a long wait before the next company update.
Good fortune to all Synairgen long term investors.
"the problem is at the moment is that World Governments believe Coronavirus is a done deal whereas we know this is most probably the calm before the storm."
An indisputable fact DrAl. World Governments are hoping that it will all go away primarily for economic reasons. The published statistics, which are no longer emphasised, tell a different story.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
The major pharmaceutical companies are applying for further authorisation for a second vaccine booster due to their short lived effectiveness (Please refer to one of this morning's leading NYT summary articles quoted below).
Meanwhile, Synairgen has a highly effective anti viral drug at the ready, and is struggling to prove its effectiveness and bring it to market? It is nearly a month since the unfortunate P3 Sprinter outcome. Yesterday, we were treated to a similar RNS to that issued on Feb 21. The proposed strategies were exactly the same as before, and the RNS resulted in the biggest fall in share price in the UK Markets - the same as on Feb 21. Surely it does not take nearly a month to extract and publish meaningful information from a relatively small data set? The many years of hard work by the company's drug development team, is being badly let down others in the company.
"The pharmaceutical company Moderna has asked U.S. health officials for emergency authorization of a second booster of its coronavirus vaccine for all adults. It comes after Pfizer and BioNTech sought authorization for a second booster for those 65 and older on Tuesday.
The request is likely to intensify the ongoing scientific debate over how long protection from the two vaccines lasts in the face of new variants. While some scientists believe a second booster will help to bolster protection against infection or mild disease, others say it is unclear whether protection against severe disease is waning and whether such a booster in necessary.
Moderna said its request covered all adults so that officials and providers could determine the appropriate use of a second booster, for groups including those at higher risk of Covid-19 disease. Although there are indications that regulators could move swiftly on Pfizer’s request, it is unclear how favorably they will view Moderna’s more sweeping application."