The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Thank you Veteran10.
That was a decent response from Brooke Clarke, and adds clarity to last Monday's RNS. Although I totally get and support Doc83's point of view, I only want to receive positive updates from the companyFrom now on.
A stumbling performance from a company representative of the quality of the post P2 Home trial webinar would only make matters worse. The company urgently needs very positive updates to recover from the post P3 results pummelling. A reduction in MCap of £320m (93.6%) in a matter of minutes is disastrous by anyone's standards. Synairgen needs to utilise its best people when future presentations and statements are issued. I believe that the company will eventually recover, but it needs to ensure a massive improvement in the future dissemination of information.
My best wishes to all Synairgen investors.
Thank you for your replies Size82 , and Mutting.
Size82. I have found your recent comments, over the last day or so, helpful as they have added to my own perceptions of the current situation, which are slowly evolving. This is why I value this bulletin board. This morning, I have read more useful information of a similar calibre to yours, although I notice that there are more green rectangles than usual?
Mutting. Your 18 year old s is wise beyond his years. Great advice at this difficult time! This bulletin board provides high quality information, although an investor needs to be selective as to whose comments to read? Some contributors are here for questionable reasons, and are best avoided.
Regards, and my very best wishes to you both.
Thanks gunto2020.
The fact that so many smart investors (far more able and experienced than I am), had formed these conclusions is one factor that gives me hope. All their extensive research, conducted over years, concluded that an investment in Synairgen would ultimately result in success. We all await further news to see whether the outcome of a flawed trial can be ameliorated by ACTIV-2 P2 data, and more detailed analysis of the current company data sets. I remain optimistic about a recovery in the long term. Meanwhile, I will continue to hold my investment. It would be imprudent to do anything else as things stand.
Regards, and good wishes.
Dumbpunter.
The shareholder information on Synairgen's website's shareholder information contradicts one of your statements:
"In so far as the Company is aware, the percentage of the Company’s issued share capital that is not in public hands is 25.8%, which comprises the holding of Polygon Global Partners LLP and the directors’ beneficial holdings of 2.5%."
Do you have any evidence to support your hypothesis that Polar Capital Holdings are continuing to reduce their Synairgen shareholding? If so, could you share your research please?
Finally, a straight question. What motivates you to contribute occasional negative comments to this board? Perhaps you are insensitive to the fact that we have endured enough negativity for the time being without you adding to it?
Regards.
Unfortunately, SNG has become a trader's vehicle for the time being. I had failed to understand its potential in that respect over the last 18 months. I have always treated my holding as an investment, always on the alert for a new development. I still believe that it will turn out to be a reasonably good one in the long term (although nowhere near the levels that the most optimistic contributors to this board had anticipated).
I am not sitting around waiting to hear anything from the company. This will only lead to frustration. The original board of directors are not the "big hitters" that most of us thought they were. Their mistakes over two major trials, and the way that the resulting information was communicated to the market underlines that fact. There is little point in reiterating about their fallibility, or waiting around indefinitely for their next move. This will eventually arrive, but may take a long time if they continue to conduct their business at their usual pace.
I have revisited the outcomes all the excellent research conducted by contributors to this board many times over the last week or so. Since then many of you have continued to add information of a similar calibre. Thank you so much for your camaraderie in sharing your research. As a result my mind is made up. I intend to maintain my current holding, which I increased by 33% last week, for an indefinite period. Additionally, I will monitor Polygon's activity, the Synairgen share price, as well as contributions to this bulletin board. This may well or may not lead to further investment decisions.
Finally, does anyone have any feedback from the Reddit Synairgen investors? From Oakleaf72's information sharing, they seemed as convinced, if not more than investors on this board, that the Sprinter trial outcome would be the start of a major upward hike in the share price. It would appear that they were as misdirected by the signals as most of us on this board?
My best wishes to all Synairgen investors. Please do not expect to hear anything from the company at present. This will, I fear, only lead to disappointment.
In the absence of any company updates in the near future, I have read, with interest, the contributions from valued fellow investors on this board. The usual nonsense from the uninvested time wasters remains buried with them in their green "coffins" on my home screen.
It seems that Synairgen's Phase III trial data is very complex in terms of the circumstances relating to the geographical distribution, together with a range of other factors that are applicable to each particular trial, but not necessarily common to all. It will take time to extract anything of value, if it exists, from this complex data set. I won't use the oft-quoted "c" word to describe the data, but retain some optimism that something worthwhile may emerge from it. Once the Phase III data is properly categorised, it may be possible to combine it with other data to produce some valuable outcomes? Our greatest hope, at present, is that the forthcoming data from the ACTIV-2, Phase II trial will offer some consolation to last week's disappointment? I presume that SNG001 would not have been given clearance to progress to the next level unless the data set had demonstrated an acceptable overall efficacy? The most important question currently on the table is whether the company will have combined data of sufficient quality to enable EUAs to be applied for? Should this prove to be otherwise, then the recruitment of recent high level personnel may have been premature?
On that subject, I am still puzzled by the recent positive manoeuvring - for example in addition to the high level recruitment to the top team, there were tweets signalling the company's progress; an excellent new website emerged, which included an upgrade to the company's status; preliminary arrangements were made for manufacture and distribution arrangements following the anticipated EUAs. All this came to nothing, when Synairgen fell at the first hurdle - the Phase III trial - the most important initiative to date in their history. It is not useful to comment any further until we have news from the company, whenever they have something of value to communicate to investors. For the time being, we can only reflect on the fact that they reached for the Moon, fell to Earth, and for the time being have gone to ground.
My view is that we have a long wait ahead of us before any significant information emerges from the company, unless they are presented with a detailed analysis of the ACTIV-2 P2 outcomes.
My major concern is the disparity between the company’s optimism and their positive developments in recent months, followed by the stark reality of a failed trial and underwhelming RNS statement last Monday morning.
When I first read the RNS, I told my wife that the company was finished. From other respected contributors’ reactions on this board, many of you thought the same thing, and our mass reaction was subsequently confirmed by the share price collapse.
Polygon’s response has improved our prospects considerably, and I can visualise a number of potential positive outcomes from now on. I am not into blaming anyone, but I hope that the company will replace the teams that were responsible for conducting the last two trials if they haven’t already done so; additionally the individuals who wrote the RNS statements that followed the trials. Investors backed the company to conduct these trials during the last placement at a share price of 175p. It is not unreasonable to have expected more carefully planned trials to avoid the uncertainties in both outcomes? Perhaps Polygon may be influential in bringing about the necessary changes in company personnel if further trialling is on its agenda?
As always, my best wishes to all genuine investors. The same is not extended to the individuals within the green rectangles on my board today.
Many thanks to all investors for your positivity and useful comments today, and throughout this difficult week. I shall contribute when I have something useful to add to the ongoing dialogue.
antofelli
What we don’t want at present is deliberate cynicism, for whatever reason, thinly disguised as constructive dialogue. A lot of positivity has returned to my his board recently. The last thing we now need is pointless pessimism.
There is little point to your recent contributions, unless you have some perverse reason of your own for introducing them. Most investors on this board are currently “down” by a great deal. I gather that we are unlikely to sell our stake in the foreseeable future, so that your unhelpful comments are of zero consequence. Continue if you wish, but I have consigned you to my green rectangle domain.
My best wishes to all Synairgen investors.
On the contrary Trek. That was an honest contribution. It always reassures me when other retail investors voice opinions, which are similar to my own.
Sometimes, investors have to follow their instincts - as long as these are reinforced by unbiased research. I am currently “down” on all my investments, but am unconcerned as I believe that each one will bring a good return in the longer term.
Like many other investors, I was hard hit by the SNG collapse at the start of the week. I gave the matter a lot of thought before finally deciding to adopt a similar approach to Polygon’s strategic response. I believe that my chances of an eventual ROC, and even a profit are better than even, but that it will take a lot of time to recover to anywhere approaching previous levels. Previously, I was hoping to move on from Synairgen in Q1, 2022 but have decided to remain with it, at least until I have further information.
IQAI is a different investment. I am convinced through my research that IB’s innovative medical technology has good future prospects. I have no idea of the timescale to my target endpoint, but will review my position if the share price rises above 10p.
Investors should have some instructive feedback shortly.
Regards and good wishes.
HelloSanDiego.
There are too many unknowns for anyone to make a reasoned estimate of the future share price. In their holding, Polygon are approaching the minimum of 30% of Synairgen's shares needed to discuss a buyout with the company. Perhaps they are accumulating with the intention of selling their holding to a major Pharma, who in turn are contemplating a buyout proposal?
Polygon would reasonably expect a good profit on their mean purchase price ( many multiples of 30p; someone here suggested 140p) in order to release their shares. Additionally, there are rules governing the minimum share price that needs to be offered to shareholders when a large entity is taking over a company. That also needs to be taken into consideration.
Many of us here believe that Synairgen controls a valuable drug, and that the company's value has been shredded as a consequence of flawed trial results. The evidence that will follow, summarised earlier by SeaBoy, will give us a better indication of the company's potential value once it is rigorously analysed.
Regards and good wishes.
30p is the distressed price as a consequence of the outcome of a flawed trial. That could well change once further analysis of the P3 results is completed, and the ACTIV-2 P2 data is released.
Hi Doc,
I share your opinion. It will indeed depend on the quality of the conclusions when the advisors to the large pharmaceutical companies run their rulers over the combined data.
In my view, the skewed P3 trial data has masked the beneficial effects of SNG001 significantly. The extensive information discussed on this board since the original P2 trial strongly suggests that. We will know the outcome once the analysis is complete.
Polygon's backing offers much reassurance; they have significantly increased their holding - presumably with a profit in mind?
Regards and with my best wishes
I am bewildered by the current share price action. Whenever I check, I discover that the share price has fallen by an appreciable percentage of its previous value. This is despite all the positive comments that my research has unearthed about IB's products, together with their applications, and advantages? While the volume of traded shares is small, the pronounced downward trend in the absence of updates is puzzling?
Hi Woody,
You are right in that we have all suffered from a major disappointment this week. It is good to see that you have retained your
( sometimes misinterpreted - but not by me ) sense of humour, which I have always enjoyed. Your more serious comments from a few months about not being over invested, and maintaining a cash surplus are now "coming home to roost". Curiously, I am more optimistic today than I have been since 06:59 last Monday morning. Let us hope that we will all at least recover our original invested capital in Synairgen.
Regards and good wishes.
Hi Fruitsnveg.
There are so much positivity to choose from, approached from different angles. The general outlook from today's contributors added much needed clarity to my previous "ROC focused" thinking. In particular, I was impressed by what wpa5 had to say at 08:36, followed by Wigster77 at 09:16. I could add a reference to several other high quality contributions from today's selection. It wasn't what they had to say, but more the way that they said it that caught my attention.
Thankfully, I am now back on track. Down in my portfolio by a substantial amount, but far from out. I am looking forward to an update from the company when they have something significant to communicate to investors.
Regards and good wishes.
"RM and another senior director sold a huge chunk of shares last year - what did that tell you"
Nothing can be deduced from that. People at large dispose of there assets to raise cash for a variety of reasons for example for taxation purposes or to meet with a range of personal issues which we all have from time to time. Richard Marsden holds a significant stake in Synairgen (995,771 shares), and will be reeling both professionally and personally as a result of the Sprinter trial outcomes. Further, the share options granted to Synairgen directors are relatively small when compared with similarly sized AIM companies that I can think of.
I wish to apologise to fellow contributors for my badly judged comments earlier today. Until this week, the company was on course for success. It has suffered a major setback, but there may well be ways forward for them to ameliorate the situation. Having read several well thought out comments from fellow investors today, my usually positive mindset has been restored. I will now fully support the company in any any initiative they may take to get SNG001 back on track.
Regards and with my best wishes to all Synairgen investors.
I agree with Snowwoman. Any weasel words from the company at the present time would carry little weight. What investors need is a more detailed analysis of the recent P3 data. I am hopeful that some positives can be extracted from the latter to partly nullify the stark negativity we were handed first thing on Monday morning. Additionally any positives from the ACTIV-2 P2 data would be very welcome at the current time.
Sadly I have lost confidence in Richard Marsden and his team as regards turning this massive setback around. I wish them well as they gave it their best, but sadly were not up to getting the drug successfully trialled. I hold some hope for the future, mostly from the fact that Polygon have significantly increased their stake in the company this week. I believe that in the event of the overall data showing promise, then an offer from a major pharmaceutical company, aided by Polygon, may be forthcoming?
I may be clutching at straws, but these thoughts at least offer a glimmer of hope.
Sadly, in that event, the drug would need to be rebranded. Unless a miraculous turnaround occurs meanwhile, the Synairgen brand will always be associated with failure. This is not a good image going forward.
Thank you for clarifying that point Fruitsnveg. I now understand your earlier comment regarding a lowball offer. I lack the knowledge to make any informed judgement about M & A processes, and accept the point that some buyers might choose to subvert the rules by any "legal" means available to them.
Like you, I look forward to an update from the company clarifying the next steps that they intend to take. Sadly, following two flawed trials and their consequences, they are in a difficult position.
Thank you for your reply Fruitsnveg. Agreed that we all have to wait for further announcements from the board, which I hope will be imminent - in the true sense of the word.
Like you, I would never contemplate a paltry offer for my shares. My preferred scenario at the present time would be a buyout from a large pharmaceutical company. My question is whether Polygon could assist in facilitating this process by selling their holding to the aforementioned Pharma for a good profit? Once the Pharma had the necessary 30% of the company's shares , they would be in position to go ahead with discussing a buyout with the Synairgen board.
Under the rules governing the process, a buyout would result in a fair price offer to investors enabling the vast majority to recover their capital, or even exit with a profit. I was originally invested in Synairgen for the long term. Last Monday's unfortunate publication of results changed all that. Sadly, I have now lost confidence in the board. My position may well change if they can turn the current unexpected scenario around.
Regards and good wishes.
B2HS2L.
Your scenario may not have been mentioned previously on this board. However, it is perfectly reasonable to postulate that this sequence of events could well occur. I have little doubt that most retail investors would be in favour of any developments that would restore their loss of capital following last Monday's unfortunate results announcement.
Regards and good wishes.