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Thank you Beforegolf.
That was an encouraging read. Perhaps it could be e-mailed to the company to give them a wake up call? It would need the author's kind permission before this could be achieved. I did not fully understand the value (share price) that was being attributed at the end of the post?
Regards and thanks again for the useful detailed information that you have provided recently.
That is probably what a number of investors are hoping for Aether?
Many have expressed similar viewpoints to my own. I believe that SNG001 is a very significant life -enhancing drug. Synairgen’s actions have demonstrated that they lack the experience and expertise to conduct an effective trial. I cannot comment on their ability to take it to market, as they haven’t yet reached that point.
At the present time, following nearly a month of apparent inactivity, the share price is at a far lower position than it ought to be. Surely the best strategy would now be to focus entirely on the existing data in the hope that there is a sufficiently robust outcome to its analysis to sell the company at a fair price to a big pharmaceutical company? It would have the ability to quickly take the drug forward where it could be put to effective use. My opinion only. I cannot see a better outcome to the current situation? The market has clearly lost confidence in Synairgen, as have too many investors here and elsewhere.
Regards and good fortune to you and all long term holders.
I totally agree Size82. There was nothing new in that RNS. Long term investors had accepted that the reference to a paused trial actually meant that it had ended. Everything else mentioned was a re-iteration of previously issued information. It was surprising that it led to a trading frenzy, and that Synairgen suffered the biggest share price drop in a trading day for the second time unless than a month. In my view, this has nothing to do with SNG001. I attribute the current low share price to the lack of expertise of key personnel, who were responsible for organising and monitoring the Sprinter trial. Does anyone know whether there was an interim readout? That being the case why wasn't the trial halted and changed to an improved format to establish the designated endpoints? This is fundamental knowledge for any investor, particularly if further trials are conducted by the company. I had previously thought that given the embarrassment shown in the webinar following the underwhelming P2 Home trial, the company would take the necessary measures to ensure that the Sprinter trial was thoroughly planned and well-executed.
We are now relying on further analysis of amalgamated data from company trials, and the NIH sponsored ACTIV-2 P2 trial. We live in hope that all will eventually come good? I look forward to an RNS, which tells investors something new. A rehash of old information, as was the case today, can only lead to further share price erosion.
Good fortune to all Synairgen investors
Aether.
Wait for the analysis and conclusions from the data of the recent trials first of all. Further interpretation may well emerge from that study. If the result suggests another trial is necessary, investors might reasonably expect an offer in the pre Feb 21 price range? My view, DYOR etc.
Regards and good wishes.
Additionally, the sold shares are being rapidly hoovered up, perhaps primarily by a grateful buyer increasing their shareholding?
I agree with a previous contributors take on today, namely that it is always darkest before a dawn (metaphorically speaking that is).
Kevin.
I was amused to find your three posts on this thread interspersed between three of my "green coffins". Once they are consigned to that domain, they are usually unworthy of a serious investor's attention.
Far more importantly, I hope that your partner and son are showing a positive improvement today. I wish them both a swift and full recovery. Best wishes to you also.
The usual mentally-challenged individuals, who are attracted to the day's biggest fallers in the share market like moths to a candle flame have thankfully moved on to troll elsewhere. It is good to read that sensible well-founded commentary has returned to this forum.
My personal view is that nothing whatsoever has changed. SNG001 is no less efficacious and no less safe than it has been since I have been invested. Any serious investor knew the actual meaning of the "paused" trial comment in the recent RNS. It was useful to receive more definite clarification today.
As regards the immediate future, my wish would be for the company to move forward at speed with the detailed analysis and interpretation of the Sprinter data. There is no reason for delay until the ACTIV-2 data emerges, unless there is nothing conclusive in the Sprinter data? Perhaps more comprehensive outcomes as a consequence of the data from both trials is necessary prior to taking subsequent decisions? Any speculation about NIH progression, Platform Trials, Joint Ventures, or Takeovers is superfluous for the time being. When the data emerges in whatever form and whichever sequence, investors will have a clearer picture as to what lies ahead?
Good fortune to all genuine Synairgen investors. Best wishes especially to all of you, whose families are currently suffering from Covid symptoms. May you all make swift and uncomplicated recoveries to good health.
Here is the official response from the company to investors requesting an update. There is nothing new added, and the essence of the Dec 31 RNS is re-iterated. The company seems to be quietly confident about what lies ahead in 2022.
Please accept this email as acknowledgment that we have received your recent emails. The Board remains committed to bringing to fruition the transactions described in the trading update of 31 December 2021. We will update the market once contracts are signed and disclosable pursuant to confidentiality agreements. Further, we are on track to publish our Annual Results by the end of April 2022, which will include detail on the performance of Supply@ME Group's operating divisions
including TradeFlow Capital. We will also share our new strategic growth plan by the end of April 2022.
The Company has a wealth of expertise among its wider Board of Directors and the senior leadership team, which continues to prioritise core business activity, including the progression of transactions described in the Trading Update of 31 December 2021
We remain incredibly grateful for your support.
Regards,
The Investor Relations team at Supply@ME
There is a constant flow of verifiable supportive information in favour of an investment case since I have been invested. Over this period the share price has declined , and is currently at approximately 60% of my mean buy price. It is going to take a catalyst, probably an indication that the core products are generating significant revenues to promote a reversal.
It has been a longer wait than expected, but I am hopeful of significant growth this year. Investors of a similar inclination will need to continue to hold for the time being.
Axe.
Here is the information that Beforegolf kindly shared with the board.
Regards, and good wishes.
Someone in the guild has had contact with the company. It's their notes and not verbatim
Company feedback
Sprinter: On the positive side the 30% to 40% reduction in mortality is an excellent signal and on it's own, in the early stages of COVID would have been amongst the best results available. In the phase 2, I suspect there were no patients who were vaxed, on Remdisivir nor steroids. however in the phase 3, with 90% on steroid and probably 25%/30% vaxed (given when the trial ran) and a number on Remdisivir.
However, they have not yet done the data digging to see what effect excluding these groups would have made. Should be done in a few weeks.
Activ -2. They haven't as yet seen the data but are chasing it hard. NIH 'warp speed' (and Barda) are going through some changes, including confirming a new comparator, however they did see enough positive signal to put it into the phase 3. Hopes to know in a few weeks but not in their hands, so could be longer. This would end up being our key 'early' use trial.
Platform trials - Tom and Sir Stephen are well connected at the top of COVID research so they are leading, over the next few weeks, in talking with the platform trials (including Recovery, Activ-3 and Remapcap amongst others). They hope to zoom in on Mortality, but by nature these will need to be much bigger trials (1-2000) which in reality only the platform trials can deliver. Still 1000 a week dying and if they could save 30%/40% it would be significant. If they do get the go ahead, I suspect it will be somewhere between 4 - 8 weeks to get the drug etc into the right places for the trial to start.
Funding: Activ-2 and the other platform trials are all Govt funded, so they have no intention or need to raise funds. He also confirmed they have enough drug, placebo, nebulisers etc manufactured to easily cover any platform trial.
On a general note, again stressed the depth and quality of the safety data.It has taken a few hours of discussion with this souce to agree a release to the manic crowd of LSE. I do not care one iota what you do with it or think, but I hope it helps some possibly depressed people see the light at the end of the tunnel
" They will be looking to exit at the best possible level."
Perhaps? There are too many unknowns, for the time being, to assess what that level might be? It is reasonable to assume that Polygon's investment will prevail until some clarity emerges? Your pessimism suggests that there may well be darker days ahead? No one can argue otherwise, as the company has totally gone to ground for nearly three weeks. If my strong belief in the science underpinning SNG001 prevails, a good solution to the post trial quagmire of unresolved issues may eventually emerge.
Andybe4.
You have voiced your opinion on several occasions. I agree with some but not all of your points. The same holds regarding my view when compared with a number of other respected contributors.
It has been a rough three weeks for over-invested Synairgen investors, myself included. SNG001 has been a very well -researched product, and volumes of supportive scientific data has been found by diligent researchers, and kindly shared on this board. We are all reasonably intelligent investors, and took our respective decisions based on that evidence, and other positive indicators.
Sadly, the Sprinter trials proved to be fundamentally flawed both in the trial design and in their execution? Until we have further information from the company it is impossible to comment unequivocally regarding the latter.
I remain optimistic about the future of SNG001. My view is that the company needs to focus exclusively on rigorously analysing every digit of meaningful data at its disposal. Perhaps this could lead to a way out from the current misery, shared by Synairgen and its investors? I am still hopeful that the analysis will provide clarity as to SNG001's future. My preferred and probably over-optimistic outcome would be a takeover, at a price somewhere in the end of 2021 price range. Not many shareholders here share that opinion. Many believe that the company will continue on its quest to take the drug to market. Should they succeed in that objective, I would be among the first to congratulate them. However, I have some doubt, at present, as to their capability to achieve that? As stated, I would be happy to be proven wrong.
I am here primarily to realise a profit, nothing else. My original target of 300p by the end of 2022 is now unlikely to be achieved. Having averaged down since the share price collapse, I would consider 150p by the end of 2022 as a very lucky escape from the current situation. Perhaps Polygon may yet prove to be the Kingmakers in bringing this to a conclusion? I doubt whether they are prepared to settle for anything less than a healthy profit?
Good fortune to you Andybe4, and likewise to every genuine Synairgen investor contributing to this board.
MrCosts.
I listened to this recording of a live 1985 rockabilly concert, a short time after reading the Synairgen RNS three weeks ago. This may not be to everyone's taste, but it never fails to give me big lift. I actually got a very good day's work done after listening to it.
All the best to you. What is done is done. It is best to maintain an optimistic outlook , and enjoy each day as it comes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsTH1tgIh2E
It is disappointing that the share price continues to stagnate at these low levels, three weeks onward from one of the most disastrous pieces of "kitchen sinking" in AIM history. It appears that significant blocks of stock are being shifted this morning? Could Polar Capital Holdings still be dumping the residue of their holding? My best guess that it is a single seller at work?
Hopefully, the bad news is now out of the way, and that there will be some positive updates to look forward to? It seems a shame that the in vitro update was coupled together with the news about the pausing of the ACTIV-2 P3 trial? There was probably a good reason for that, but I saw it as a positive update in its own right. It was buried alongside the more significant news.
It is three weeks forward from that most miserable of mornings. My wife described it to me in that she heard a loud "whoop" from the kitchen at 07:00. When she went to investigate she saw my facial expression transform from happiness and joy to dejection and disappointment in less than a second. Let us hope that there are better times ahead for Synairgen, and in particular SNG001? My optimism is pinned on the latter.
My best wishes to all Synairgen investors. I hope that there will be fewer visits from, by now green-coffined, cretins of the calibre of yesterday evenings visitor to this board. The ongoing debate remains positive and optimistic. We may have different opinions about some aspects, but it would be helpful to maintain a sense of unity going forward.
Ghia.
"Trial is still on pause plans for phase 3 still in discussion. It’s just a routine update to all trials. Don’t jump to conclusions."
1. Update from Brooke Clarke on March 3:
"ACTIV-2 Phase 3 trial for COVID-19
Due to the need to modify the study design in light of the emergence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) ACTIV-2 trial team has asked Synairgen to temporarily pause activities to prepare clinical supplies for ACTIV-2 Phase 3 until the timeline for the activation of this agent in the trial is clarified."
2. Update from NIH funded ACTIV/ACTIV-Associated Clinical Trials:
"Synairgen : Continuing enrollment/passed interim analysis/Q1 2023."
The latter implies a progression from the former. However, it depends on when the NIH statement was issued? I have no reason to question your assertion, until there is a further update on the Mar 3 statement from Synairgen in a forthcoming RNS.
Regards and good wishes.
Thank you mcadder and mact4.
If this information was issued following Brooke Clarke's RNS on Mar 3, then it is very good news indeed. This being the case, should investors now expect another RNS from Synairgen to confirm the apparent update?
GLA
Shareholder2019. Are you Clint Eastwood in disguise?
Regards and good wishes.
Thank you for your reply Fruitsnveg. My major concern regarding the company itself is not so much their response time, but whether they have the necessary skills set to fix the current situation? They thrived as a drug development company. Perhaps if they had focussed on taking their potentially revolutionary product forward one step at a time, they might well have avoided the major pitfall that has crippled their progress? I hope for the sake of all investors, as well as the company's senior personnel, that I am proven wrong. However, as things stand, I would prefer if the baton were passed on to a safe pair of hands, who have the experience to take SNG001 forward in the minimum amount of time.
Regards and good wishes.
Seventeen days later, Synairgen is still trading well below the level that the share price settled at following the catastrophic collapse on Monday 21 Feb. It would appear that we could be waiting for several months for a structured response from the company regarding the next steps? The perfunctory comments regarding a deep dive analysis of a failed trial, the release of ACTIV-2 P2 analysis, which has since apparently been put back until mid-year, and a nebulous reference to platform trials, don't inspire confidence in the Board's abilities to fix their mistakes anytime soon.
The response of Polygon, the major shareholders, has been far more positive and decisive than that from the company. I am inclined to believe that their actions will eventually result in a resolution to the current quagmire, apparently caused by the serious errors made by the company. I remain hopeful of a buyout by a major Pharma this year. All the research uncovered by investors on this board and elsewhere confirms that SNG001 is a product that could form a significant part of a Pharma's pipeline for decades to come. Any Pharma with SNG001 in their sights will know this already. I sincerely hope that the mid - term future of SNG001 is taken out of Synairgen's hands. I have every confidence in SNG001, but my belief in the company's ability, and will, to take the current situation forward has eroded significantly over the last fortnight.
My best wishes to all Synairgen investors.
Spot on Tommy.
Last 7 days data from GOV.UK site:
People tested positive: 322,917 (+ 90,944 or +39.2%)
Deaths within 28 days of a positive test: 729 (-12 or -1.6%)
Patients admitted: 8,763 (+878 or +11.1%)
I am not convinced that that the extent of the recent relaxation of measures haven't resulted in people being less careful than before? People have had enough of strict protocols and want to return to their old lives. We shall soon see what effect it will have on infections, deaths, and hospitalisations? We went for a delicious hot chocolate in an empty chocolaterie in Geneva's Old Town this afternoon. It was wonderful to do something normal, although we continue to remain careful in maintaining basic protocols for the time being. Stay safe everyone!
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
Regards and good wishes.