Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Brel, I’m aware of the delay in June 2018 which they flagged as specifically due to the delay in the Crestgate completion. Their promise to provide the accounts by the end of the following month was met.
Your comment was that “This company has never been great at meeting deadlines or for getting things out on time.”
So, one occasion in more than 10 years means the Company has never been great meeting deadlines? Really? Unless I’ve missed loads which would make them serial offenders…
I just put it there so others can see that ONE delay in context.
Hi Florence141414, you're absolutely right on the discounted value of future cash received from Ascendant being in the accounts. The accounts for y/e 30/06/2020 state in Note 8:
"To date the payments due by Ascendant under the agreement have been paid on time and the Group’s
investment in Redcorp has been valued on a discounted cash flow basis of the remaining payments due under
the agreement plus an additional amount for the discounted value of the Group’s residual investment in the
project. "
So they've discounted both the cash expected and the value of the LS investment.
Sorry for muddying the waters! :-)
Florence141414, I would be surprised if that $1M was included in the March NAV as it wasn't a debt due at that time. It only became due in June and was paid then. The last set of accounts don't show future payments due as debtors either.
To be clear, I'm not interested in winning arguments (I'm often wrong after all!) just trying to anticipate what the next NAV might look like. They've been consistently higher over the last 5 years and I don't expect the next announcements to reverse that. ATB
Guvvi, not sure why your lower end of the range would only be 17.5p when it was 17.1p in March. The $1M from Ascendant in June adds 2p, the small amount I logged adds 1p - there was some slippage on Barrick over the 6 months but I can’t find out how many of those we had.
We’ll find out soon enough!
That $1M received from Ascendant in late June was equivalent to just over 2p NAV (based on 35M shares).
Just to whet your appetite for the NAV figures due shortly, I log the notified holdings we have in Ascendant, Cerrado and Endeavour. That's just a small part of the MAFL portfolios but the value of these had increased by about 18% from 31/03/2021 (last NAV) to 30/06/2021 and by just over 30% from 31/03/2021 to 30/09/2021. If the other quoted parts of the portfolio have done anywhere near as well the asset price should be well over 20p per share...
Silverknight, the shareholding for Ascendant in LS hasn't changed. The triggering event for that is:
"Ascendant then has the option to earn an additional 30%, totalling an 80% interest in Redcorp, the operating subsidiary, by completing a feasibility study within 54 months and making a further payment of US$2.50 million to TH Crestgate."
So, at the moment the cash has bumped up the NAV and should be reflected in both the year-end accounts (which includes the June 2021 NAV) and the Sept 2021 NAV shortly afterwards.
You're right, of course, liquidity is an issue. But we had a TR1 in September showing that somebody could acquire a 3.3% stake. Let's run with those figures for a moment..
Assume somebody could acquire another 3.3% stake at 12p per share - that would cost them about £139k.
If it was Ascendant there are some interesting benefits:
1) they would not just be buying into additional Lagoa Salgada, they are also taking a 3.3% share in the $3.5M they are paying into MAFl over the next year! That's equivalent to $115,500
2) they would have 3.3% of the remaining 20% of Redcorp held by MAFL (equivalent to 0.66% of Redcorp). Their payment of $2.5M next year to secure an additional 30% of Redcorp values each 1% of Redcorp at $83,333. That 0.66% resulting would be worth $55,000
3) they would have the benefit of the additional investments (Ideon is a great example of that!) and cash currently held by MAFL for free.
If my maths is correct, that would result in a benefit purely on their share on LS of $170,500 ($55,000 + $115,500) for an investment of £139k. If LS creates the massive value we expect then that's on top...
My point is that it wouldn't need much investment by Ascendant to still be worthwhile. Just my musings anyway!
Can’t disagree with that at all. We know that MAFL own a stake in Ascendant but I’m wondering if there are any rules stopping Ascendant taking a stake in MAFL. That would be a double down investment in Lagoa Salgada at a snip.
At the end of May 2020 there were 30,333,317 warrants outstanding. Since then I think 21,291,659 have been exercised leaving 9,041,658 that expire at the end of today. The exercise price is either 3p or 5p each.
I'm not sure they could forward sell 3.5% of the companies shares. I'm sure they'll get exercised but hopefully most will end up being kept for longer than just a flip.
But no mention of CLNs
>>scott240 - you said "Directors need to be held to account over this disaster" - RL holds more shares than anyone else so do you think he'd be reckless enough to sabotage his 21.1% holding? He's got more to lose than any of us. He's only on a £32k salary with PRIM apart from that.
Why incompetence? Why bordering on fraudulent? It was structured as a CLN to MUST @ 10%. Do you know anything that's not already in the public domain or just venting your spleen?
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CGO/directors-holdings/15154167