Member Info for TimberTrader

Don loves Greatland. Just his latest views, like anyone else, but interesting and adds to any other research. DYOR

https://dondurrett.substack.com/p/mid-week-macro-3112026

Typo Correction: The current average copper price to date in Q3 FY26 is around A$ 18,200/ton*

As we head towards the end of Q3 FY26, in around 2 weeks, it'll be very interesting to see how the higher copper prices this quarter have affected the AISC. The market average copper price last quarter (Q2 FY26 1st October - 31st December 2025) was around A$ 15,500/ton. We had sales in that quarter of A$ 48,366,252, which was 9.54% of total revenue.

The current average copper price to date in Q3 FY26 is around A$ 18,500/ton. Go figure!

GROWING DEMAND FOR RESOURCES

Global demand for resources remains robust. Demand for copper, for example, is projected to reach 35.1 million tonnes by 2030, growing at around 3.8% annually3 Geopolitical tensions and the expansion of the money supply have also increased interest in gold as a safe haven. The FTSE 100 has benefited from its heavy weighting to mining and energy, but resource exposure is now becoming more prominent among small and medium-sized firms.

One notable example is Atalaya Mining, a well-capitalized European copper producer with strong growth prospects. Meanwhile, Greatland Gold, listed in the UK and based in Australia, made a significant move in Autumn 2024 by acquiring assets from Newmont. This acquisition has propelled Greatland into the ranks of leading gold and copper producers, positioning it well for future growth.

https://www.bnpparibas-am.com/en-gb/forward-thinking/resourceful-and-resilient-uk-small-and-mid-caps-are-ready-to-shine/

A nice slow but steady rise today, up to £6.588 as a high so far. That's 3.4% up on the ASX close today @ A$12.00 (£6.37).

The latest of his many, if you haven't viewed before:

https://www.youtube.com/@jitmistry2025

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6t1CKQhA6s

Just for info, this is what Shaun Day had to say on the 11th December on the Town Hall webinar, and I suppose we can all read whatever we like into it....

"So, I think there is a camaraderie and we apply the same when working with junior companies in in the Paterson. So, you know, we're there to support and help.

We have infrastructure. Um, you know, we want them to be successful because ultimately, we have our own interest in them being successful because we think that ore will come into our mill at some stage."

"Their success becomes your success."

"Exactly. In terms of another major, look, it is elephant country. You've got Rio Tinto up there in the north with the Winu asset, Telfer and Havieron, a collective, you know, plus 30 million ounce endowment, that is a big gold deposit by global standards. - You know, this is a huge endowment. So, it is elephant country. Having said that, to replicate the infrastructure we have in the Paterson, probably that mill alone would be north of $2 billion today. So, our incumbent advantage I think is significant."

Thanks Bamps, and, as you say, "you can never say never". It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out. TT

This is the stuff I particularly like about the WDU...

- Maiden WDU Mineral Resource Estimate still targeted for this month

- December quarter drilling at West Dome Underground (WDU) delivered highest grade results yet

- Highest grade intercept (WUC4550104) is the southern most assay returned to date, and the mineral system is increasing in size towards the south which remains open

- Two underground diamond drill rigs operated throughout the quarter, with a third rig now allocated to accelerate drilling in H2 FY26

We’ve written in this column several times about the “regional opportunities” for Greatland. And while we believe their organic exploration is ripe, this column is about deal speculation after all…

Of the opportunities, Antipa gets the most airtime. We think Cyprium is more desirable to GGP than most want to entertain. But last week we heard another contender that we had to stop and scratch our heads to… Winu

We bawked because we remembered the price tag Sumitomo paid for their 30% (headline US$400m but only US$195m upfront). But just a week ago Greatland had a $10B market cap, so it really isn’t inconceivable any more.

Winu is poised as a standalone 10-15Mtpa future mine thanks to its 741 Mt at 0.45% CuEq resource.

That volume goes a long way towards filling both trains at Telfer for a long time. But it is ~130km+ by the crow’s eye.

https://www.moneyofmine.com/p/markets-roar-oil-plummets-as-trump-plays-investors

Https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HC8TBPybYAAZQQY?format=jpg&name=large

Where we are on COPPER:

MARCH QTR 2025 3,511t PRODUCED WITH SALES OF 3,705t @ A$ 13,140/t = A$ 48,683,700 (10.6% OF REVENUE)

JUNE QTR 2025 3,729t PRODUCED WITH SALES OF 3,740t @ A$ 12,718/t = A$ 47,565,320 (9.77% OF REVENUE)

SEPT QTR 2025 3,366t PRODUCED WITH SALES OF 3,277t @ A$ 12,552/t = A$ 41,132,904 (8.64% OF REVENUE)

DEC QTR 2025 3,528t PRODUCED WITH SALES OF 3,301t @ A$ 14,652/t = A$ 48,366,252 (9.54% OF REVENUE)

MARCH QTR 2026 ?? CURRENT COPPER PRICE APPROX. A$ 18,200/t!!

KEY TAKEAWAYS

- Copper Near Record Levels: Copper prices and mining equities remain near all-time highs, with major miners up 26.72%% and juniors 24.79%.

- Demand Shifting Toward Strategic Uses: Growth is increasingly driven by long-term, priority projects such as electrical grid modernization, AI infrastructure, and defense.

- Price Inelasticity and Market Resilience: Strategic, mission-critical demand reduces price sensitivity, supporting sustained copper pricing even amid macroeconomic softness.

- Decoupling From Traditional Cyclical Indicators: Copper’s performance is diverging from oil, iron ore and China-linked equities, reflecting its repositioning as a strategic material.

- Supply Constraints and Policy Risk: Supply chain stress, inventory location, and U.S. Section 232 trade policy heighten sensitivity to disruptions and near-term deliverability.

https://sprott.com/insights/beyond-dr-copper-copper-s-strategic-shift/

Yup, and with only 3 weeks to go before the end of Q3 FY26, we have a gold price around A$7,300/oz, which is still A$850/oz above the price level we started the quarter at, on the 2nd January.

It's also A$1,000/oz above the average gold price we achieved last quarter, in Q2 FY26, which was already yet another record!

They're big *******! Here's one at Telfer from 2005...

https://media.gettyimages.com/id/124861628/photo/the-telfer-gold-and-copper-mine-located-in-the-pilbra-north-west-austra.jpg?s=2048x2048&w=gi&k=20&c=XE0xVZuSEekhq6VbHJovGNmZIW2saHAGQsIibRde6vk=

Https://www.lectura-specs.com/models/renamed/orig/rigid-dump-trucks-793c-caterpillar.jpg

Thanks to Stuart Hinds on 'X'

"Two more refurbished trucks have landed on site - numbers three and four of twelve - and they're already proving popular with our operators.

While we were on site filming for a new marketing campaign, we caught up with some of the crew who bring the place to life. What stood out? A genuinely welcoming, down-to-earth and supportive culture with a strong team spirit.

It's hot as you'd expect but there's a lap pool to cool off after shift. The camp has been around for a while, with lots of green spaces and a new batch of rooms is about to be ready for the crew. With flights landing and departing directly from camp, there's less travel at the start and end of swing..."

According to one of MacMahon's previous posts,

"Following Greatland Gold's acquisition of the Telfer mine, a fleet of 12 Caterpillar 793C trucks is getting a second life through a full rebuild program at Macmahon’s Perth workshop.

Each truck is stripped, inspected, and rebuilt to OEM spec with major components replaced if they have below 20% life remaining. Each truck also receives abrasive blasting, a new coat of paint and safety and functional upgrades, as necessary."

https://scontent-lhr6-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/647461178_1490092609793617_2837181782964801315_n.jpg?stp=cp6_dst-jpg_tt6&_nc_cat=110&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=13d280&_nc_ohc=ggkl8epFSk0Q7kNvwHaU0Hu&_nc_oc=AdlORRaEO1EgiywKQETNeY4lTcoyFfYtj7hQm-fmXmGSa_K_COg05KIVnbwHLdMCBnmqL-ozd28qd_6GRC4RfV1m&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-lhr6-1.xx&_nc_gid=f3LV2IY4Om52ANmqfkeFFg&_nc_ss=8&oh=00_AfwX1fmPmq5niMpWlTRFbNDQV7UlbuD1cqRE8aO94usSrQ&oe=69B06E46

This has been, over the past few days, and will be, a classic manipulation/games play on GGP, with just about everything possible happening this month. From past experience, over many years now, I doubt anyone knows 100% what will happen over the next few weeks, but especially day to day. I've been a LTH for many years now, so essentially sit back, relax, and often top up, when it's clear that the sp is ludicrously low, often through same manipulation. DYOR.

Why? 10 business days prior to the 23rd is the 9th.