Member Info for TimberTrader

GGP 7th highest riser on ASX 200 today...

https://www.fool.com.au/2026/03/25/here-are-the-top-10-asx-200-shares-today-25-march-2026/

Greatland Resources (GGP)

Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $15.30 (£ 7.97)

TBH, when I saw the increase first thing, I thought, immediately, that the Telfer MRE (and Telfer WDU Maiden MRE) had dropped, but that's not the case, yet!

Close on ASX UP 10.86% at A$ 10.41 (£5.42), which is 8.4% UP on the AIM close yesterday (£5.00).

Bring on the updated MRE's!

Just for further clarification, after digging a bit deeper, the last Newcrest Mining figures on O'Callaghan's was in 2023 and can be seen in the 2023 Annual Report on Page 30 (see link below).

*Just note that the Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources as at 30 June 2023 included the following changes as compared to 30 June 2022:

- Reduction in O’Callaghans polymetallic tonnes due to an increase in Net Smelter Return (NSR) cut‑off as an outcome of an internal Scoping Study

See Page 30 for the revised figures:

https://s24.q4cdn.com/382246808/files/doc_downloads/Newcrest/annual/230921_Annual-Report-2023_0.pdf

In 2016 Newcrest stated the O’Callaghan's resource contains 0.26 Mt tungsten trioxide, 0.22 Mt copper, 0.38 Mt zinc, and 0.19 Mt lead. These comprise an Inferred Resource of 9 Mt at 0.25% WO3, 0.24% Cu, 0.19% Zn and 0.11% Pb and an Indicated Resource of 69 Mt at 0.34% WO3 0.29% Cu, 0.53% Zn and 0.26% Pb. Included in the Mineral Resource is a Probable Ore Reserve of 44 Mt at 0.36% WO3, 0.29% Cu, 0.65% Zn and 0.32% Pb, for a contained 0.16 Mt of tungsten trioxide, 0.13 Mt of copper, 0.29 Mt of zinc and 0.14 Mt of lead.37.

O’Callaghans is Australia’s largest reported tungsten resource, with almost half of Australia’s Economic Demonstrated Resources contained within the deposit.

It's likely this year, as Shaun Day indicated back in December...

"So it's a real focus for us. Actually this was fully drilled out by Newcrest, I think there was a 2012/2014 prefeasibility study done, but virtually done to feasibility study standards. Newcrest once upon a time had O’Callaghan's in their reserve. So not just resource but all the way into reserve. So we are going to be looking at potentially reintroducing that. I can't say whether it will fit into this March quarter because, to be honest, we are focused mainly on the gold. but we would like to do it, and it's certainly on the radar, and we are thinking, you know, in terms of the question of value and how we would monetize it. We're very much thinking about the best way to do that. That may not necessarily be Greatland owning a tungsten division, but we'd certainly like to create value for shareholders and that will be a bit of a focus for us, as to how to solve that puzzle and, you know, create value around this event, which I think there's an array of corporate solutions for, and I think people should be confident that we'll unpack them during the course of the next calendar year (2026)."

Just to confirm, as I expected, Greatland Resources have left the Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF as of 23rd March....

https://sprottetfs.com/sgdj-sprott-junior-gold-miners-etf

Interestingly, from our normal percentage share holding in the ETF, between 4.78% - 4.93%, around 7th position (out of 25), with a holding of 2,245,585 shares, we dropped down to 25th position on 19th March, so I'm assuming they've been selling down over the past week, or so.

We haven't (yet) joined the Sprott Gold Miners ETF as we may have missed that rebalance, but that's just an assumption (which I hate!)

https://sprottetfs.com/sgdm-sprott-gold-miners-etf/

I'll keep an eye, but if anyone has anything more definitive, I'd welcome the input.

"Like most gold miners, ASX 200 gold stock Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) got clobbered on Monday.

By the time the smoke cleared, Greatland Resources shares were down 9.79% for the day, trading for $9.12 each. That leaves the Aussie miner commanding a market cap just north of $6 billion.

For some context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) ended Monday down 0.74%. And in a better comparison of golden apples to golden apples, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) tumbled 7.33%.

That selling pressure followed another 2.4% decline in the gold price on Monday, with the yellow metal slumping to US$4,396 per ounce.

Still, the gold price remains up more than 31% since 13 August.

I highlight that date, as 13 August also saw the Greatland Resources share price plummet to its lowest closing price since the stock listed on the ASX last June, ending the day at $4.98.

So, although shares have now fallen some 37% since the start of the Iran war, the ASX 200 gold stock remains up 83.13% since those August lows.

Atop the rising gold price and its own mining successes, Greatland Resources shares have also enjoyed tailwinds from the company's exposure to copper.

While slipping 1.5% on Monday to US$11,930 per tonne, the copper price has gained just under 22% since 13 August....."

https://www.fool.com.au/2026/03/24/up-84-since-august-should-you-buy-this-6-billion-asx-200-gold-stock-today/

Well, in all the years I've been invested in GGP I've only ever seen a +/- 24% (£4.26 - £5.30) move was when we had the August 2025 post-listing gold output downgrade and guidance cut on the ASX. It's certainly a crazy market!

Indeed panama! In A$ terms the gold price is only 4% down on the record gold price we had for our gold sales in Q2 FY26, let alone when we bought Telfer & Havieron from Newmont. Of course nobody knows 100% where it's going from here, but where we are now, in terms of the gold price, is still good, IMHO.

TYPO: Q3 FY26 - 3,528t of COPPER produced, with sales of 3,301t @ A$ 14,652/t = A$ 48,366,252 (9.54% of revenue) SHOULD READ "Q2 FY26"

A quick update on where we are now, with only 7 days of Q3 FY26 remaining:

Even at today's 'crashed' gold price of around A$6,400/oz, it's still A$100/oz above the average gold price of A$6,301/oz we achieved for our gold sales in the last quarter, Q2 FY26, which was already a record. In Q2 FY26 we generated net revenue of A$507 million (including Copper) and an operating cash flow of A$406 million, delivering a closing cash balance of A$948 million, debt free.

The current AVERAGE gold price in A$ so far this quarter (1st January - 20th March) is around US$ 4,900/oz = A$ 6,950/oz (based on current exchange rate), so, with 7 trading days to go, we're still over A$600/oz ABOVE the record A$ 6,301/oz for our gold sales last quarter

The energy prices are up of course, which will factor, late, into the Q3 figures, but that should be offset, to a degree, by the rise in the COPPER prices:

Q3 FY26 - 3,528t of COPPER produced, with sales of 3,301t @ A$ 14,652/t = A$ 48,366,252 (9.54% of revenue)

Q3 FY 26 ? - The current AVERAGE COPPER price for Q3 FY26, TO DATE, is approx. A$ 18,300/t, so over A$ 4,000/t ABOVE Q2 FY26. Based on the average COPPER production over the past year (3,533 tons/quarter), that should give us an additional revenue in Q3 FY26, above average, of around A$ 17-18 million, which should help offset the energy increases.

T'was ever was badger! Same old, same old, got multiple t-shirts! They'll probably be down at the pub, boring everyone to tears tonight. The problem is that someone is bound to engage with them, which they just love, because it makes them feel important, which of course they're not.

Another piece in The Telegraph today...

Chinese squeeze on ‘war metal’ to send cost of missiles soaring

The Telegraph

Supply constraints and defence demand are tightening global tungsten markets and straining stockpiles

The price of tungsten is surging as the crisis in the Middle East fuels demand for missiles, shells and other munitions.

Analysts said the critical mineral had seen a “stunning” 500pc rally in the past year after China imposed export restrictions and the US-Iran war squeezed global supplies.

The “war metal” is widely used in defence because of its tough, dense nature and 3,422C melting point, which makes it ideal for high-temperature applications.

It goes into everything from hypersonic missile nose cones to armour-piercing bullets, bunker-busting bombs and “airburst” counter-drone shells.

Since the end of January alone, when American forces first began massing in the Middle East, the price of tungsten has jumped from $1,225 per tonne to $2,165 per tonne on the spot market.....

....The escalating conflict in the Middle East has only heightened this military procurement frenzy, further straining available tungsten resources.”

Mr Lawson said resolving this structural deficit would be “no easy task”, adding: “Restarting dormant Western mines and expanding production in alternative sources including Spain, Brazil and Australia will take years to come online....

.....Tom Price, a metals analyst at Panmure Liberum, said the most important driver of higher prices was US-China relations, with Beijing having imposed export restrictions on tungsten following Donald Trump’s announcement of trade tariffs last year.

At the same time, Washington has been forcing its defence companies to buy tungsten from elsewhere in a bid to break its dependence on Chinese supplies.

Mr Price added: “The market’s been starved of a flow of metal from China....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/20/chinese-war-metal-cost-of-missiles/

Another quick calculation...

Our COPPER sales this quarter could be around A$ 17-18 Million above the average for the past year, if our production is similar.

We've produced an AVERAGE of 3,533 tons of COPPER per quarter over the past year. Sales have been similar +/- 200 tons.

The AVERAGE COPPER price achieved for our sales has been A$ 13,265/t over the past year.

The CURRENT COPPER average price, to date, in Q3 FY26 is A$ 18,300/t, so around A$ 5,000/t above the average.

That should give us an additional revenue in Q3 FY26, above average, of around A$ 17-18 million, which should help offset the energy increases.

I'm not trying to be cleaver here, but regards the GDX, it's just more of the same we've seen for years now, when there's been rebalances, etc., and it happens with little obvious change in the sp. As I stated a week ago, "Personally I'm not getting overexcited about the GDX inclusion. Naturally I'm hoping for a push north on the GGP sp, but we've been disappointed before, when, in the likes of rebalances, buying has already happened in the background, or at a completely different time to what many people expected."

I'm more interested in the upcoming Telfer MRE & Telfer WDU maiden MRE, which, at least, we have control of.

Hi Doozer, Yes I'm sure it'll be a (late) factor in the Q3 results, but should be offset to a degree by the rise in copper prices.

Here's where we are on Copper:

Where we are on COPPER:

MARCH QTR 2025 3,511t PRODUCED WITH SALES OF 3,705t @ A$ 13,140/t = A$ 48,683,700 (10.6% OF REVENUE)

JUNE QTR 2025 3,729t PRODUCED WITH SALES OF 3,740t @ A$ 12,718/t = A$ 47,565,320 (9.77% OF REVENUE)

SEPT QTR 2025 3,366t PRODUCED WITH SALES OF 3,277t @ A$ 12,552/t = A$ 41,132,904 (8.64% OF REVENUE)

DEC QTR 2025 3,528t PRODUCED WITH SALES OF 3,301t @ A$ 14,652/t = A$ 48,366,252 (9.54% OF REVENUE)

MARCH QTR 2026 ? - CURRENT AVERAGE COPPER PRICE FOR Q3 FY26 TO DATE APPROX. A$ 18,300/t, so looking very good at the elevated prices.

PS. The current AVERAGE gold price in A$ so far this quarter (1st January - 19th March) is US$ 4,917/oz = A$ 6,935/oz (based on todays exchange rate), so, with 7 trading days to go, we're still over A$600/oz above the record A$ 6,301/oz for our gold sales last quarter

At today's price of around A$6,650/oz it's still well above the average gold price of A$6,301/oz we achieved for our gold sales in the last quarter, Q2 FY26, which was already a record. In Q2 FY26 we generated net revenue of A$507 million (including Copper) and an operating cash flow of A$406 million, delivering a closing cash balance of A$948 million, debt free.

Interesting! Thanks buffa, it'll be interesting to see where we go today on AIM too. TT