Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Trek!
No, PureGold do not fit the definitions "world class" or "Tier 1" - seriously. They are also in a notoriously dangerous phase for investing in a miner; many mine builds go over schedule and over budget (about one third), often resulting in severe dilution of the equity / equity wipeout.
Centamin's Sukhari gold mine does, for instance. (500K Au ounces per year, LOM 10 years +, in top 20 gold mines worldwide, outstanding ore body). Alpala also does (easily).
I don't know all the shares you listed there. My pick of producing London goldies would be POLY and CEY amongst the larger, and HUM and SHG and HGM amongst the smaller. There's some broker research posted on the CEY board that you might find interesting.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8515109/Boohoo-workers-Sheffield-warehouse-breeding-ground-coronavirus.html

"World class" and "tier one" are mining terms with precise meanings, but which get much abused on sites like this.
I've got nothing for or against PureGold, but Solgold really do have a world-class copper-gold asset.
I believe that they are the only London-listed explorer which does.
(Cue: GGP holders claiming that Havieron is world-class. I disagree and believe that the first resource statement will show that I'm right.)

Hi Earthling!
Yes, Solgold have the right to match any offer for Cornerstone.
But the truth is, Solgold are in no position to match a decent cash offer from Newcrest. They can't match with shares, and they can't use any FN money for that purpose. So the only way they could match a cash offer is with an emergency equity fund raising. That seems a little far-fetched.
By the end of next week we should have a good idea of Newcrest's plans and intentions from Cornerstone's official reply to Solgold's offer.

Hi Earthling!
If Newcrest are still interested, then their logical move is to make an offer to Cornerstone that they can't refuse.
That would give them about a 30% stake in Alpala - directly and indirectly.
That would put them in a powerful position.

Stunningly naive analysis. I walked past a Pretty Little Thing poster at a bus -stop earlier today - someday had scrawled "Slave-Rags" on it. As I understand it from those who count, Boohoo is now "cancelled".
And that's without considering the legal questions that have been thrown up by the ongoing revelations. Certainly, no respectable institutional investor can go on holding Boohoo shares without trashing their ESG policies.
Given BOO was trading at such a high P/E, I'd think this could crash all the way down to 50p. It might well go to zero, if the revelations turn into prosecutions, as they may well do.
This was a house built on sand, not rock.

Hi Phattrader1!
Any source for that rumour?
Or is it just a hope and a guess?

Unless they can refute the Guardian story, Monday morning will see a desperation smoke and mirrors RNS from the company. Then every financial institution holding Boohoo will dump their shares en masse into the market.
I'm now thinking Aberdeen Standard Life made a brilliant move in offloading their own stake this week. As always, they who panic first panic best.

Also, makes the purchase of shares by the Employee Benefit Trust a couple of days ago looks like an extremely dodgy attempt to shore up the share price.
That will need a full investigation as well.

If the Guardian story checks out, I'd think it is the end of the company entirely.
Jaw-dropping hypocrisy...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/10/boohoo-co-founder-jalal-kamani-linked-to-leicester-garment-factory

Now trading at 25p equivalent in Canada.

I stared at the screen at 4.25pm and thought about adding to my stake here, given the funny price action. In the end, I didn't.
Things could be worse. But I have a funny feeling that come Monday morning I'm going to regret not pressing the "buy" button...
Oh well, til then...

Palladium price creeping back up - over $1,900 now.
Platinum also seems to be getting a weak "pull" from the rising gold price - around $840 now.

Hi HighAndDry!
There is no publicly quoted daily price for chrome - i.e. there is no spot or futures markets, it's all directly traded.
The prices quoted from time to time here are for UG42% chrome concentrate, which is the benchmark.
Metal Bulletin provides irregular updates on the chrome market with pricing information - just search on Google.
Samancor is a private company, so there is no information on where their chrome breakeven price is. My best guess is about $140/t. Certainly, $125/t was disastrous, and I believe $160/t means they should be profitable. Chrome prices are very volatile, and could easily go back over $200/t in a heartbeat.

IMO, Newcrest wouldn't want to be a minor shareholder in a producing Solgold. Least of all under Solgold's current management. For them, it's either sell, become a JV partner with another major, or takeover SOLG entirely.
If their decision is "sell", Newcrest have to be thinking that the minimum price for their shares is 50p. A buyer could never accumulate so many shares on the open market without causing the share price to boom far higher than that.

www.baystreet.ca/articles/research_reports/fundamental_research/AIW-July-6-2020.pdf
See page 9 for commentary on Cornerstone bid (from the Cornerstone side). Bay Street reckon the Solgold bid is far too low and that Cornerstone shareholders should hold out for a major to come in.

From Tharisa RNS - selected quotes:

"The period under review saw a solid price performance for our PGM basket, totalling US$1 593/oz and while down compared to the previous quarter's record pricing, the weaker ZAR did translate to an increased local basket price of ZAR29 266/oz as compared to the price of US$1 822/oz (ZAR27 690/oz) for the previous quarter. The combination of the dramatic slowdown of the global economy and the reduced output from the major South Africa PGM producers has translated into a continued positive outlook for PGM pricing."

For chrome prices - "Market prices are trading around US$160/t. Published port stocks in China have continued to trend lower at approximately 3.5 Mt down from a high of 4.3 Mt in the first quarter of 2020."

I reckon $160/t is almost enough for Samancor to consider restarting some of the shuttered operations.

Production - South Africa in Phase 3 lockdown. (Remember, Tharisa is also a surface operator, not a deep miner.)

"Our co-product model utilising mechanised and low labour intensive mining in an open pit environment, remains well suited to deal with the impact and volatility of COVID-19."

Hi Sotolo!
I see inflation/deflation and real interest rates as the best arguments for the price of gold to continue to rise.
Nominal interest rates are not going up. Certainly, not soon. And perhaps not ever. They can't; the interest on our mountain of debts, public, corporate, and private, would become unpayable, collapsing the economy. Interest rates might drop a bit more and/or go negative; but there is limit how far you can move in that direction.
As for inflation, it's what the Central Banks need. The "best" way out of the current debt crisis, is to gradually inflate away the massive debt pile at say 5% inflation per year. The other alternatives (default or debt jubilee are either worse or impractical). Right now, the Central Banks are battling deflation. But if they want and need inflation, they will find a way to create it in the medium term. And they won't be raising interest rates to combat it once it arrives, that's for sure! (At least, not until it's far too late, and they realise the kitty cat of mild inflation has grown into the tiger of hyper-inflation).
In short, I make this an ideal macroeconomic environment for gold prices to go on rising! But, still, it's good to remember the arguments contra, and to keep questioning yourself!

I'm taking the recent (and highly-publicised) Newcrest appointment of RBC to be a kind of billboard proclamation, advertising that they are not happy with Solgold's current management, and that they are willing to talk to anybody about anything in order to bring about change.
Is their stake on sale? Yes, for the right price. But could they be persuaded to add shares, and make a takeover bid? Also, possibly yes. And would they be interested in a JV takeover with another partner? Also, possibly yes.
All that Newcrest don't want, IMO, is for the current state of affairs to continue.