RE: My guess1 Jul 2020 08:42
Hi Addicknt!
That's how I see it as well.
Current offer by Solgold to takeover Cornerstone has almost zero chance of success. Even an improved offer will likely fail. BHP and Cornerstone most likely have some kind of understanding behind the scenes about a deal to be closed in October.
That means that BHP are likely to make a takeover offer for Solgold as soon as they can as well. IMO, this will either be in JV partnership with Newcrest, or they will simply buy out Newcrest's stake from them. However they do it, they should be able to amass around 25% of SOLG shares before they announce their bid - that's a very strong position to be in.
I don't know why the SOLG board are wasting their time on this unwanted bid for Cornerstone. Honestly, I don't rate NM, and I don't think he is CEO material. IMO, SOLG's only hope of a successful takeover defence are outstanding drill results from the new targets. That would mean all parties have to reassess.
I'm not sure what the takeout price for SOLG will be, but I'm confident it will be north of 40p, even without a rival bidder. Given October isn't that far away, that makes these shares an appealing prospect in my book.
As regards downside risk, even if the takeover doesn't work out, I still think these shares are worth every penny of the current price.