Member Info for TigerByTheTail

I'd say this: never underestimate the effect that a financial institution selling down can have on the share price of an AIM company - even the best ones.In my experience, these are often the best buying opportunities. Think Shanta Gold at less than 5p a few months back because London Capital and Finance had gone bust.
Volume is already very high today - and that's without the inevitable wave of late reported buys and sells at the close.

Hi Razor's Edge!
Siko said the results of the tender process had been delayed to 15/9.
Always frustrating to wait for what we hope will be very good news!

Hi I Want That one!
As regards the extra $100 on AISC, it's not just the extra costs of the dreaded lergy.
The last RNS also said that they would be speeding up mining (i.e. incurring extra costs) in order to stockpile ore and to process higher grade ore whilst the gold price was high. This should fed through into higher production and higher revenue in Q3.
Since I've criticised management a fair amount in my time, it's only fair to add that (IMO) is well thought out.

Hi Craig!
30p would mean a P/E of less than 2, given that EPS this year should come in at 16p-17p.
And this for a company with no debts and a cash pile that would be equal to half its market cap at that price!
I mean, never say never. But it seems a trifle unlikely, short of another market crash and "dash for cash".

Hi The Iceberg!
One key consideration is that if Solgold develop Alpala alone then this is a "one-shot" play. They will have to grant security over Alpala to obtain any loan finance (which won't be 100% of the bill, anyway), so no more loan money would be forthcoming if they go over schedule or budget. Thus, if there are overages or delays, it would be down to emergency equity raises - at an inevitably massive discount. I.e. A near wipeout to older shareholders.
A major runs so much less risk when they develop a huge mine like this. They can raise all the money they need as a loan at a far lower interest rate. If they go over time or over budget, they have easy ways out - they can use their cash flow from their other mines or raise another loan. And the political risk they run is less as well. They have more "weight" with governments, and they can credibly threaten to walk away. Finally, they don't run the biggest risk of all; that of being first timers.
Somebody wrote below that building a big underground mine isn't rocket science. Actually, it's just as hard. And it requires just as many highly skilled specialists.

Hi All!
I'm about 60% of intended position built. I take the point about missing the boat.

Hi Quady!
In which case, it would be best to sell the whole company, and then to create and float a new Ecuador exploration company, into which (presumably happy and enriched) former Solgold shareholders could invest if they chose. Some deal could be made about transferring exploration licenses to the new entity, I'm sure.

Hi The Iceberg!
Everybody does a DFS. And yet still a lot of mines hit trouble in the construction phase. Some fail completely.
Do a Google search on this subject if you don't believe me.
And, IMO, the current Solgold board demonstrably do NOT have the financial, engineering and logistical expertise to pull this off.
I'm not trying to stir things up, but somebody needs to say this. The current board strategy is not in shareholders' best interests.

I think everybody is just trying to pick the bottom to buy.
40p represents excellent (even incredible) value in the medium / long term, but 39p would be even better!

Yes, maybe the "groupthink" line was oversaid. My apologies.

Hi Quady!
No, actual first mine production of concentrate will come in 2025, according to the plan.
It's worth also noting that many mine builds (about a third, I believe) go over time and over schedule.
All told, building a world-class mine like this is an extremely difficult and capital intensive business. It requires an incredible amount of expertise that only the majors really have. That's why almost all projects of Alpala's calibre are taken over by majors at this stage of development. (The only exception I can think of is Centamin's Sukhari mine, which was a special case, due to Egyptian politics and legalities).
IMO, it's in all shareholder's interests for a takeover by a major (at a reasonable price) to succeed in the near future. If not:
1. Solgold's board lack the expertise to build and operate such a complex mine. Certainly, I'd doubt their ability to get it built on time and on budget;
2. Solgold do not have easy access to cheap loan finance, as a major does. In all likelihood, at least some of the money will need to be raised via equity, which will occur at a low price (it always does) and will be hugely dilutive to existing shareholders.
In short, if Solgold "go it alone" then shareholder money will be tied up for years with no guarantee of value at the end of it. It's a dumb play - sell Alpala and continue exploring the other targets in Ecuador would be a far superior strategy.

I think there is a fair amount of groupthink on this board.
Firstly, you're taking Solgold's case for Cornerstone shareholders to accept the offer as being a neutral and fair minded statement of fact. I'd regard it with a more skeptical eye - as the opening statement for the plaintiff in a civil court case. We haven't yet heard the lawyer for the defence speak. It may well be that Cornerstone have more options than we realise.
Secondly, yes, Cornerstone's board have not yet recommended officially against the bid. They can't - yet. They must first make a show of analysing it, so that they are being seen to perform their fiduciary duty to shareholders. However, to me it as clear as day, from what they have already said, backed up with an interview with a 20% shareholder in the FT, that Solgold's offer will be turned down.
Thirdly, it's also evident that relations between Nick Mather and both Newcrest and Cornerstone are dreadful. (BHP's feelings are unknown). I think a takeover bid for Solgold will be coming shortly. But, if not, I wonder if Newcrest and Cornerstone won't call an EGM with a "sack the board" agenda.

Hi Gold Gnome!Just as regards US job numbers, there is a huge conflict between the computer based claims data and the survey based headline jobs number, which is explicable only by massive claims fraud or by extreme number massaging by the Trump administration.I've no idea of the actual true US unemployment number. I doubt anybody really knows, including the Moron-In-Chief. But I know casually from friends in LA that things are very bad and not getting much better. And the special $600 per week extra unemployment money runs out at the end of July - that will be crunch time.All in all, not much of a 4th July celebration this year! Maybe the rebel colonists should consider renouncing their treason and re-pledging their allegiance to Her Majesty?

Did you mean this from the FT? Not Greg Charmandy, though...
“There is no cure for stupid. I have never seen a more pathetic hostile [takeover[ attempt in over 20 years. It’s obvious that the SolGold management team and board will be replaced soon and it will be long overdue,” said Bob Sangha, a mining investment banker who owns almost 20 per cent of Cornerstone and is its biggest shareholder.

Hi Quady!
Sorry, our last posts crossed...

Hi Quady!
Yes, I know that. That was why I said both statements were right and wrong.
We're not exactly missing a special ape chromosome either - two ape chromosomes joined together to make one human one some time in our past. You can actually see the join if you look closely - two relic telomeres are embedded in the middle of that particular human chromosome (I forget its number offhand).
I don't have any hippy-age illusions about the great apes (which includes us). Certainly, a male chimp could clear the roughest, toughest, most crowded Glasgow pub in a few seconds. But to kill a great ape is, in a very real and human sense, murder.
Anyway, back to the money business going on at Solgold...

There is this as well:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB991681622136214659
Apparently blindfolded monkeys also intuit market movements better than we humans do.
We humans think we are descended from chimpanzees. But I suppose chimpanzees think they are descended from humans. Both are right. And wrong.

Back in the day Swedish TV ran a money show in which leading financial experts AND AN ORANG-U-TAN competed to pick stocks. (The orang-u-tan chose his stocks by throwing paint at symbols on a wall).
Naturally, the orang-u-tan won the competition by a mile. He became something of a celebrity in Sweden.
I've had the luck to meet a few orang-u-tans. They're people, really, with full developed personalities. The Indonesians have a proverb, "Orangs are so clever they know that if they learnt to talk they would have to work."
I'm sure an orang could also master TA, if only they could be bothered with it.

Hi Olddrongo!
P/Es in that list are historic, drawn from the last full set of company accounts.
HUM's P/E is high as 2019 started so badly (and the price of gold was much lower then). If you take the time and trouble to work out a current "likely" P/E for Hummingbird then you'll get a MUCH lower number.
A similar argument holds true for others on that list. Centamin is listed as a P/E in the 20s, but it's currently trading at a P/E of about 12, assuming it hits its guidance etc.
In general, gold miners in general are still surprisingly cheap, given the bull run in gold. IMO, of course!

Hi Novicehunter!
Yes, I do still think that Cornerstone have already firmly rejected Solgold's offer.
(The statement about doing due diligence and making a formal recommendation later is merely legal cover to show that they are taking their fiduciary duties as directors seriously.)
But others obviously have different opinions, and many opinions go to make a world (and a market).