Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Not sure yet, but it begins to look like it...

Hi Quady!
I can see why Solgold want to buy out Cornerstone now - it gives them 100% control of ENSA (thus making financing any mine build that much easier), and it removes a sizeable hostile shareholder from the register (good for takeover defence). Not buying out Cornerstone as soon as possible just leaves Solgold that much more vulnerable to a bid.
However, I do believe that Cornerstone will turn down Solgold's bid - and not because they want Solgold to up their price a bit. It's a bit of a risky strategy, but if Cornerstone hold out and then a bid comes in, they can name a far higher price for their support than the one Solgold is currently offering. They may have already had a nod and a wink from a potential bidder as well.
I agree with Addicknt's point about the "alignment of forces" here. Any potential bidder is in a very strong starting position. And other than the institutions / trade rivals, it should not be forgotten that many private investors would also be happy to sell out for a quick profit. Forgive me, but I'm one of them.

The contango observed yesterday probably indicates one of the market-makers is filling a very large buy order, soaking up all the sells. I just did a dummy sell - no problem with selling at volume right now!
IMO, this is still way underpriced, and it still has a long way to go just to be valued equally with its peers.

I'll wait and watch for a few days, at least until the quarterlies are out. Not least because I want to maintain very high levels of cash for a while. I'm not sure how long the markets can keep ignoring reality and levitating on nothing like this. And as we saw back in March, when the market crashes, gold and gold stocks crash too. At least, initially.

Pretty much everybody else, as far as I can see.
Don't be fooled by the sea of red on the board. The spread is very tight, but the 38.68p trades are buys and the 38.55p trades are sells ATM.

Hi SGD27!
I read the two RNSs that way as well - an internal transfer of a shareholding by Jupiter from one account to another.
Of no real importance, one way or the other.
Q2 report should indeed make good reading. The interims should be even better - think of all those comparisons between now and the H1 2019 interims! The figures should show big improvements in revenue, EBITDA, debt repayment, and profits!

I'm just calling it as I see it. I could easily be wrong.
And it's always best to take a loss if you believe the value of any share will drop further.

I'm still seeing the classic pattern of a large institutional sale hitting a small company's share price.
First, there was the drip feed at a fairly high price to sell off, say, 20% of the holding at a decent price, then the big dump as the buyer searched for volume to offload the bulk of their shares (that was Thursday and Friday last week), and now we have smaller sells into a rising price as the seller gets rid of the last 20% or so of their stake.
There may have been some front-running shorting as well, if news of the selling leaked out into the market too early. If so, the bounce back should be quicker and steeper.

Hi Sotolo!
I was amazed there was enough liquidity to allow me to get out early doors.
I agree there is no long term danger to the company, and I can easily imagine the shares trading at 300p in 2021.
But I can't help but think the current drop has some way to go. The current quarterlies won't be good (no ****, Sherlock!), and a few weeks of Immaculada on care and maintenance will surely unnerve some investors.
It's hard to call a certain bottom when this share dropped below 100p in the March "dash for cash", but assuming no major market turmoil, I think we will see sub 160p at some point. And that's my buy back point.

Hi Caribbean!
Cora news not off topic at all, and needs no apologies.
Apart from HUM being a substantial shareholder in Cora, some of their news this morning indicates some hopeful early stage exploration work in their tenements near Yanfolila. If Cora can prove up any ounces near Yanfolila, then they will be toll-processed through Yanfolila for sure.

I still wonder if a simple name change to Sylvania Rhodium wouldn't send the share price soaring...
Then, again, given the way of the world, maybe Rhodium's name will be changed to something else first.

Amazingly, I managed to sell on the bell for 183p.
I still believe in HOC medium to long term, but surely this will drop further over the next few days to reflect the ongoing uncertainty?
Immaculada is HOC's best mine, by far.

HI All!
I just thought that I'd point out that fellow South African PGM recycler SLP has had a big seller over the last few days, and the share price has been pushed all the way down to 38p. I make it a buying opportunity over there; but everybody will have there own opinion!
As for Kabwe, I just have tears of rage and grief. The lead that was dug from the old Broken Hill / Kabwe mine (once the world's biggest) was used in bullets in the two World Wars, and for lead in petrol, stunting the development of millions of children. Hundreds of miners died in accidents down the mine over the years. And now it's closed its legacy is yet more death and developmental problems for children from the lead dust in the town's topsoil and from the pollution blown off the giant piles of tailings. It's a nightmare.
And, sadly, nothing gets done about it.

Here's my penny's worth...
As regards Covid-19, there's a big difference between operating an underground mine and working on the surface, either in an open pit environment (like Tharisa) or in a tailings recycling situation (like SLP and JLP). Underground miners will be seriously hampered by social distancing regulations, but it should be far easier for surface operators to adapt to the new normal.
As regards the PGMs market, at the moment both supply and demand have suffered for palladium and rhodium - it seems roughly equally. As almost all rhodium production comes from South Africa, and it is simply irreplaceable in many of its applications, I'm confident that it will soon be in deficit again, and I think it likely that it will make new all-time highs in 2021. (Remember, rhodium is the largest contributor to SLP's revenues). IMO, palladium should continue fairly strongly, (Covid-19 has convinced many people around the world it's better to own a car that take public transport), and platinum will continue to drag along behind in the $750 to $1,000 per ounce range.
It's fair to say that the Stockopedia dividend yield number is derived from a house broker (Liberum) note, and not from anything the company has said. However, SLP do have the cash to pay an absolutely huge dividend if they wish to do so. Or to buy back a lot of their own shares. Or a bit of both. I guess we'll find out their plans in late August when the annual results come out.
P/E here is ridiculously low, and all other metrics are appealing. Trading volume has been very high over the last couple of days. I assume the share price will rise back to more "normal" levels once the seller is done.

Yes the 750K at 38p is a buy for sure.
Book is heavily unbalanced, so there must still be sales to be printed. Big ones.

I'm waiting for some big delayed sells to pop up to balance out the book. They should add up to several million shares in total.
Judging by where the market makers held the ask, I'm guessing at about 37.5p.

IMO, there is a motivated institutional seller who is dumping huge amounts of shares into the market. Just look at the volume yesterday and (especially) today.
The seller could have any number of reasons for being in a hurry - many of which have nothing to do with SLP. (E.g. they are an open ended fund hit by redemptions, and they need to sell what they can for what they can get asap.)
My guess is the sale is now over, and that on Monday normal market conditions will return and the share price will start to rise back to a more sensible level. But I'm not 100% sure about that.

Hi I Want That One!
Looking at that RNS comment again, it makes me wonder if - in addition to going after extra high grade material now whilst gold prices are high - they are not thinking of mining extra low-grade material as well.
There is a large amount of oxide ore around 1g/t to 1.5g/t at Yanfolila. At $1,250 gold this material was probably classified as strip - i.e. not considered worth processing. But at $1,750 gold it may well be worth processing.
This, if you like, might amount to an increase in life of mine without actually doing any extra drilling!
The next update should prove interesting.

Take a look at the share price of South African gold miner PAF. That seems to be unaffected by Covid, even though PAF operate deep mines compared to SLP's surface operations (i.e. it's far harder for them to enforce social distancing).
Given the social problems the first lockdown caused, (including widespread hunger), I can't see the SA government going back to nationwide lockdown, except in the most extreme circumstances.

Or, put another way, SLP hold 1/3 of their current mcap in cash. (And have no debts).