Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Yes, they've bought the new mine with shares (about a 10% dilution) and most of the new shareholders will be locked in for 12 months and subject to orderly disposal rules after that. No cash outlay.
The implication of the RNS is that Coris are willing to finance 100% of the cost of the new mine via a loan (and even throw in a 10% contingency).
So, from the point of view of the bank's credit committee, the question they want answered is, what happens if the mine build project goes over budget and over schedule? Hummingbird's answer will be, we use the free cash flow from the newly debt free Yanfolila to carry the project to completion. IMO, that should be sufficient, as long as the price of gold holds up.
Of course, the bank will demand security over both Yanfolila and the new project in return for the loan, but that's OK.

Hi DropInMonkey!
Hummingbird will have an almost debt free working mine and all the free cash flow that implies to support the new debt when it is finally agreed and taken. (Which won't be for 6 months at least - there's a lot of paperwork and due diligence to be done first).
Short of a gold price cash, I really think you're wrong here.
What's more interesting to me is the interest rate Coris Bank will charge on any new debt. Hopefully, Hummingbird can get it down from the current 9%.

Hi DropInMonkey!
How do you get to a rights issue?!?
The RNS stares they have a letter of intent from Coris Bank for $100m, and the project cost is estimated at $90m. And they should be generating large amounts of cash from Yanfolila over the two years of the new mine build.
(Obviously, if the gold price crashes, then things change. But at $1700 gold?!?)

IMO, this is a very good deal. It's FAR superior to putting fresh company money into Dugbe. The jurisdiction is stable, grades are good, bank finance is already agreed in principle, and the project is a manageable size.
I'd be grateful for more details from the company - a new broker's note which analysed the project would be useful. And obviously, it means that Hummingbird are going to pay off the Yanfolila debt only to take out new debt to finance this mine. But the company will be much bigger and more profitable as a result. And the market always puts a premium on miners which operate in more than one jurisdiction.
Anyway, I added a few shares this morning. I'm a little surprised the market is reacting in such a downbeat manner to what is company transformational news.
p.s. In reply to Colonel Drake, I've got nothing against Shanta. I own a few shares in it. And the Kenya project is indeed good. IMO, the reason Shanta is undervalued (it is, just like Hummingbird) is based on the sovereign risk of operating in Tanzania - especially after the government-ordered destruction of Acacia Mining.

Hi Skeletor!
First up, I regard Motley Fool as completely unreliable and all in all a bit of a joke.
As regards any potential dividend, Sylvania did pay one last year, and have announced that they intend to continue paying them. (They also engage in share buybacks from time to time.) However, nobody from the company has indicated anything about the potential size of this year's dividend, (which presumably will be announced along with the annual results in August.)
Liberum, the company's own broker, did issue a note a few months back in which they speculated that Sylvania could pay out huge dividends this year and next year. I think this is the source of these rumours.
One thing is certain, Sylvania are debt free and have amassed a huge cash pile - about $45m at the last count. So they could pay out a 10% yield (at current SP) very easily.
But maybe they have an acquisition in mind instead. Given the coming recession / depression, there will soon be lots of distressed assets up for grabs, and Sylvania can pay cash on the nail. That's a position of huge strength.

Hi Sotolo!
Thanks. I've been pondering this question of what comes next - inflation (actually, stagflation) or deflation.
I think there may be a short period of deflation, at least in certain sectors where inventories are high and demand has collapsed.
But then inflation will begin. It will be all very 1970s again - back to the heyday of Status Quo!

HI Mr. Tibbles!
I'm a bit dyslexic, so I occasionally get the wrong end of the stick when I first read things.
E.g. Currently I'm enjoying the image of Rick Parfitt and the rest of the band standing on the steps of Downing Street as they take office. All power to the Status Quo!
Hey, Rick's blonde and shaggy-haired and only knows one chord on his guitar. I mean, would we even notice the difference? It might be an improvement!

Hi Blackfisk!
HotStockRockets? - "Blah, blah, blah, who cares about fundamentals? Let's all pile in and pump some microcap stock and then dump it at an agreed signal, and rip off some naive muppets..."
Based on past experience, I'd recommend selling out on the rise and buying back in a few weeks' time.
I don't blame Cora. It's just something that happens to AIM explorers from time to time.

So, gold down 2% or so on some pretty incredible US employment figures - a RISE in the number of people employed when all expected a big fall.
Alas, it seems incredible may be the operative word. After Trump trumpeted the results in a press conference, the government agency responsible for the numbers (the BLS) has already admitted to a huge error (of 3%) in the numbers, and there may be more "revisions" to come.
Is the USA turning into the USSR, where even official government numbers are shamelessly faked? How long till the facade of this Potemkin village collapses, revealing a wasteland behind its painted fronts?
I'm not quite sure I did the right thing, but I added quite a lot at the close. Time will tell...

My take on it:
I've long regarded Dugbe as nearly worthless. 4.2m ounces of gold sounds like a lot, but the grades are low, the geological and logistical difficulties immense, and the jurisdiction nightmarish. $70m may have been spent on exploring it a decade ago, but (IMO) it was mostly money wasted.
I would have been very happy if HUM had sold Dugbe outright for even $10m in cash - to get paid something is always better than nothing. I am happy that HUM are not putting any new money into a project that (IMO) is unlikely to ever come to fruition.
So far, so good.
However, I do not like the related party transaction part of the ARX deal. It says nothing good about Dan Betts and HUM's other directors. It worries me that Dan Betts has not learnt from his previous mistakes - my guess now is that he can't be taught.
It wouldn't surprise me if a predator announces a hostile bid for Hummingbird in the near future. This deal feels like the kind of questionable stunt that company directors pull when they know their time in charge is almost up. I hope that's right, and at this point I'd support almost any vaguely reasonable offer, just go get rid of the current BoD.
Until then, I'd expect Hummingbird to continue to trade at a discount to other comparable junior gold producers. That's the true cost of having Dan Betts as CEO. But (IMO) 27p is still TOO cheap, considering the likely cash flows from Yanfolila and the exploration upside.

Actually, it's amazing that STOB have found anyone willing to put money into the company, even at 40p.
IMO, this company is doomed. And deservedly so.

As regards Semafo and Burkino Faso, I should also post this link from last year:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-semafo-attack/at-least-37-killed-in-attack-on-canadian-miner-semafo-convoy-in-burkina-faso-idUKKBN1XG2CG
At the time I read a fair number of local accounts which claimed the actual toll from this attack was far higher than 37, as well. Around 200 seemed a common number.

Hi Cherryburn!
So you don't classify Burkino Faso as a war zone?
I realise that words are clumsy things, and "war" isn't quite the right name for a toxic mix of Islamic insurgency, tribal conflict, and plain old banditry. But, by my book, Burkino Faso is a super high risk jurisdiction.
And Mali has its issues as well.

Hi Cryptic FabPhil!
I reckon you may well be right, at least metaphorically. (Literally, the idea of carnivorous sparrows is an ornithological horror pic). To me, this looks and smells like a takeover is imminent.
I imagine the bidder will have to go hostile, as Dan Betts and the BoD will be loathe to lose their salaries and options. But I'm sure that the vast majority of Hummingbird's shareholders would welcome a reasonable offer.

This is a recent interview with James Campbell, CEO of Botswana Diamonds (BOD) - that is, Vast's JV partner for the Marange diamonds.
In it, he covers all BOD's activities, including touching on the Marange diamonds concession. I rate James Campbell (in contrast to the BS artist Andrew Prelea) as an honest man, as well as an expert in his field. I was struck by his confidence that the diamond licence will finally be granted.
Not invested here, but I thought you might be interested:
ttps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/920999/botswana-diamonds--james-campbell-hails-recovery-of-macro-diamonds-from-south-africa-sample-920999.html

Hi Fortitude!
Yes, you're right that we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. That said, I'm not a shareholder here, and definitely not short, so I hope I'm wrong, and that this does pay off for you. I just have my doubts, that's all.
10cpht grade is roughly what average diamond miners leave behind in their dumps after extracting the valuable stones. I can see why the seller is happy to sell such an operation!

Just thought I would post a ling to this article. Basically, this is why I'm not buying the current market rally:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/breaking-bad-valuations-are-screaming-danger
It's all in the eye of the beholder, but if you consider this to be off topic, my apologies...

Hi Fortitude!
Er, no...
This is just an an illogical and frankly desperate diversification play by another failed AIM miner. The diamond grades (cpht) are so low that they can be barely commercial. If investors are interested in early stage diamond companies, BOD would be a FAR superior play.
Lots of share dilution in the works here.

Hi Sotolo!
Thanks for the post. Yes, I lived for a few years in Tinseltown (down by the ocean in Venice and Santa Monica), and the day job still takes me there once or twice a year (or it did, until the dreaded 'lergy struck). I'm told things are tough there now with the movie biz at a near dead stop.
I've added a few Centamin shares this morning, although I'm not confident about where the price of gold is going in the short term. (In the medium / long term I remain bullish). Not buying the current euphoria of the wider markets at all; still mostly in cash.

Hi Pwooly!
I don't have an answer to your question, but these sequences of rapid low signal figure trades have been happening for months. They are nothing new.
Is it the market makers signalling to each other when they are about to move the bid and ask up and down?