Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi ngnlv!
Remember, that 99% of investors - even institutional investors - won't even have heard of Hummingbird, let alone researched it and run its numbers.
The release of the audited annual results are a rare chance for a company to attract the attention of new investors. Let's hope the results are good, and the forward guidance positive, and - above all else - the persistent seller here is done.
At $1,730 gold, I make it that this share is way undervalued. Hopefully, the results will make others see the same.

Hi Pecten!
I don't think JC is allowed to comment on colour or clarity in an RNS without the stones being independently appraised.
It might be worth watching the BOD twitter feed, because there is nothing to stop him putting up a couple of pictures. Given the premium for coloured stones, it would be nice to see a couple of fancy yellows in the mix.
I'm no expert, but I make it that the tailings should be worth reprocessing at those grades, and the dyke material should be highly commercial.
There are still results to be announced. E.g.: I believe that we haven't yet had the results of the analysis of the drill cores, which we know hit M1 (i.e. Marsfontein!) kimberlite. And there is still a lot of work to be done on site.
But all good for now.

I agree with this. Time is on Hummingbird's side.
Unhedged 120Koz gold producer, low to mid-range costs, soon (already?) net debt free, uninterrupted production, large exploration upside, undervalued in comparison to peers, etc.

EUA can remain suspended for a fair while, if they choose, now that they have a Nomad again.
The maximum they can remain suspended is six months (from the date of the original suspension). They will be delisted from AIM if they don't come back on the market before then.
But that date is still months away.
I don't read today's RNS as unalloyed good news here. I think many people's valuations of Monchetundra, in particular, are very far-fetched and based on the ridiculous AFC broker note, which is the most unprofessional piece of work I've ever read. The truth is $50m would be a fair sale price for that largely undeveloped asset, and $100m would be absolute tops (compare to EUA's theoretical current market cap).
But, still, that's better than nothing. Which was a real possibility here.
I know this will get attacked by the usual crew here. But I know what I'm talking about.

p.s. I have of course bought a few Centamin this morning. Gift horse, mouth, don't look at it, etc.
IMO, Centamin is almost the perfect share for these troubled times - a gold producer, solid management, no debts, cash pile, regular dividends, exploration upside, etc. Absolutely perfect would be if Centamin operated several mines in several different jurisdictions, as well. But you can't have everything!

Hi Sotolo!
I agree that it's the progress of REAL interest rates here which I agree is key to the long term price of gold. It's clear that Central Banks will hold nominal interest rates near zero for a long time. But does all the new money creation that they have done lead to deflation or to inflation? And in which sectors - i.e. is it possible that we will have rampant inflation in financial assets whilst we have deflation in the real economy? And how stable will this "new normal" turn out to be?
My intuitive take on it is that the current apparent stability is a dangerous illusion. Several crises are slowly coming to the boil: one between the US and China (over Hong Kong, trade, tech, and capital flows, and possibly over Taiwan); an Emerging Markets debt crisis (Argentina will default again in a few days, others will follow); and a Euro and Euro banking crisis. And, of course, here at home we have Brexit to look forward to (and, as a consequence, a possible sterling crisis). And all that is without considering that there may be a second wave of the coronavirus.
Luckily, I had some good investment results in the last six months. For the next six months my objective is simply to keep what I have. Measured in real terms, that may not be all that easy.

Hi HighAndDry!
I would think it's pretty obvious that the law was indeed broken in this case. And you don't go for a drive to a local beauty spot (whilst still infectious) to test your eyesight; claiming that is just trolling the great British public, some of whom have suffered hugely through this lockdown. All in all, the whole thing is arrogant and offensive, just as the civil service tweet put it.
I knew Boris / Al well at university and through the 1980s. He hasn't changed a bit. Still a weak, cowardly, indecisive, corrupt blatherer with a good memory for light verse, a bad memory for his own promises, and an overwhelming sense of his own importance and entitlement. Darius was a much more interesting character.
Sorry for the off topic post!

I guess that makes me a "mature investor" then, since I'm about 65% in cash! I thought I was too young for such an honour!
Investing in Centamin is one thing, but piling money into shaky companies because we believe that the Central Banks will bail the markets out is quite another. To use the language of 2008, I get the feeling that so far we've only had our Bear Stearns moment, and that our Lehman Bros moment is still to come.

Hi Toothpastee!
I'm not sure I'd agree with you that other shares are ultra-cheap now. Sure, many were trading at a higher level back in February. But since then their earnings have collapsed. Based on "Forward P/E", the market is in fact very expensive right now.
I still make Centamin a very appealing prospect. No debts, huge cash pile, uninterrupted cash flows, generous dividend, etc.
Honestly, I'm wondering how long the current market rise can go on in the fact of an utterly grim economic reality.

Hi Juxtapose!
I agree that the 2019 results (coming up this week?) will show a big improvement over the 2018 results, which were poor.
But (based on current progress and current gold prices) this current year (2020) should show an even bigger improvement on 2019. Hopefully, people will do the maths for themselves and realise that this share is a real buying opportunity.
All IMO and DYOR, of course.

Tharisa is a play on both chrome and PGMs production. If PGM prices stay high AND chrome prices improve, then it will become an interesting proposition.
Chrome prices seem to have bottomed at a truly terrible $125/t (for UG42% concentrate). That price meant that most chrome miners were losing money hand over fist, and a lot of production has been shuttered, (including by Samancor, of course). Currently chrome prices are back in the $150/t range. Nothing special yet, but decidedly better. Chrome prices are volatile, and if they shoot up (and PGMs prices remain high), then Tharisa could make a lot of money very quickly.
In short, keep watching the chrome price for that one...
Meanwhile, I make it that SLP is still trading at a forward P/E (for the current financial year) of around 3!

Hi Lenoman!
No, the options don't quite work that way.
They could easily have been forward sold. From the little that we know, it could as easily be a sign that something was wrong inside the company. The evidence we have is inconclusive.

IMO, we have a big seller here, whose sales are balanced out by the three large short positions that we know are reducing / closing.
In effect, the share price is pinned here until either the seller is out, or something significant changes.
Stale mate...

Hi Ragnar!
I think chrome prices may well surprise us to the upside. They are really volatile, and a lot of production has been cut. China isn't going to stop churning out all that stainless steel!
My own expectation is that this trades back up to around 80p over the next few weeks.
Hi Bangrak!
I agree that SLP is a fine company. JLP, well, if you're happy with the standards of their financial reporting, I'm not.

Interim results out.
IMO, things are looking up here. EBITDA $36m and profits up. Now back at 100% full production. PGM prices very high and chrome prices recovering. No interim dividend (no surprise, Covid19 considering).
Tharisa's share price has been trashed over the last few months, in line with the slump in chrome prices. IMO, it should recover from here.

Roughly 14 million shares bought and sold over the last four trading days.
That's roughly 4% of the company - 2% of it bought and 2% of it sold.
If trading continues at these levels then any sellers will soon get washed out.

Hi DropInMonkey!
My take on it is that this will all come out in the wash.
At the current mcap, HUM's cash generation will trump all other factors, sooner or later or now. Barring serious production setbacks or a collapse in the gold price, a rerate is just a question of time and trading volume.

The EV/EBITDA ratio for Hummingbird is crazy.
Assuming 120K production this year at AISC $850 with average gold price of $1700 per ounce and a 90% Hummingbird interest in Yanfolila, and that current cash balances out current debt (i.e. net debt free), then HUM's current EV/EBITDA ratio comes in at about 1.4.
An EV/EBITDA in single figures is good. 1.4 is ridiculous.

Hi Sotolo!
I also sold my HOC - a little too early, true. Too far too fast was my thinking as well. Very grateful for the large and quick profit.
I'm still 60% or so in cash, but intend to commit more money to precious metals shares later today. As well as in gold and silver, I think there is good money to be made in platinum group metals miners / recyclers...

I've always found SLP's PR and website design to be reassuringly bad.
Always beware AIM companies with slick logos, active Twitter accounts, and well-crafted "investment stories". I prefer companies whose entire focus is on production and profits. Numbers over narrative, any day of the week!