Member Info for TigerByTheTail

I hope you're right and it's ready to move.
It probably depends if our persistent seller is done or not. Yesterday's trading had the feeling of a final unloading of stock, so it may be so.
Certainly, the current SP and the value of the company are way out of kilter, so this is an opportunity for anybody who can actually get a price!

I've been trying to buy a few more shares this morning, since gold appears to be breaking out and it seems an obvious thing to do.
I can't get a quote, but 27.2p to sell.

Now that's a proper intercept!
Whatever you do, don't post this on the GGP page. They might realise that their "discovery" in Australia is actually pretty ordinary (and v. expensive to mine, to boot).

Hi TotalTrader!
The whole Kabwe business is as clear as mud to me - that's why I wrote my first post today, in the hope that somebody knew more than me.
Here are the facts:
1. It's now over two years since JLP bought the Kabwe zinc-lead-vanadium tailings (in stages) from BMR, at very considerable expense in money and share dilution.
2. JLP then bought Sable (from Glencore) to process the Kabwe tailings, again at considerable expense. But JLP are now using Sable to process copper tailings instead.
3. The construction of the zinc circuit at Sable has now slipped to 2021 (officially), and the vanadium and lead circuits some time after that.
So, why have no Kabwe tailings been processed? I only wish I knew. But I don't think it's just the recent zinc price weakness. I think that either JLP are missing a key licence / government permission, or possibly that there is an ongoing dispute with BMR. Whatever the reason is, we are certainly not being told it.
But, given so much time has passed, I suspect that the whole Kabwe deal may have turned sour, and that it may be years before the tailings get processed. If indeed they ever do.
Personally, I'd think more of Leon Coetzer / JLP if they cleared the Kabwe question up; even if the news isn't good for shareholders.

Hi Total Trader!
No, the copper tailings that are being processed are not from the Kabwe spoils. There never were any copper tailings there (see BMR RNSs).
Some copper tailings may have been on site at Sable, left over from the Glencore days. The rest will be 3rd party.

He sold enough of his incentive shares to cover the tax that he will have to pay on them. It's not the best form, but it's a common practise.

Hi DropInMonkey!
The Coris Bank debt was far superior to the Taurus loan, which it replaced. BUT, I do remember from looking at the loan a couple of years ago, that the penalty for early repayment was very high (substantially more than 50% of interest due) - i.e. high enough that it eliminated any point to paying it back early.
So you're doubly right about buybacks being preferable to paying the Coris Bank loan back early.

I love the way that on this bulletin board an EPS of 14.8p on a stock trading at 42p gets thrown around as if it is the most normal thing in the world.
Really, it's not. Not at all. It's an absolutely stupendously fantastic number!

Hi DropInMonkey!
I agree with your analysis of the market situation here. That said, I have a hunch that the seller(s) is/are almost done.
IMO, the annual results may well be enough of a trigger to set off the long awaited rerate. In part because the audited figures should reassure the market. And, in part, because the results should be accompanied by some positive commentary from the company about current production and cash balances.
I agree that the best use of any spare money right now would be to buy back HUM stock. Or, alternatively, to pay out as a small maiden dividend. I hope that the BOD gets that.

IMO, there is a more fundamental question here which needs to be asked, which is, WHAT IS WRONG WITH KABWE?
I don't mean the Sable refinery; that can operate profitably processing 3rd party copper ore. I mean Kabwe itself; that is, the huge mountain of zinc, lead, and vanadium tailings that JLP obtained from BMR, at a cost of some cash and a substantial dilution of shareholders more than two years ago.
Since then, what progress has there been? Almost none. At best, we are looking at 2021 for the commissioning of the zinc line, with the vanadium and lead lines pushed out even further.
Is reprocessing the tailings uneconomic at current zinc and vanadium prices? Is there a license / government permission / environmental issue? Are there legal difficulties with BMR?
Jubilee avoid addressing the Kabwe question directly. But, the fact is, a lot of time has passed and JLP are no closer to processing the tailings than they were 2-3 years ago. Has the whole business gone sour? Will those tailings ever be reprocessed?

Gold has just hit an all-time high price in sterling. Previously, the high was £1,405 (from 2011); this morning it has hit £1,407.

Hi Willowman!
If you don't mine me jumping in...
I'm sure GoldenBull means FTSE100 listed Fresnillo (FRES), the world's largest silver miner. (It also produces a decent amount of gold).
FTSE250 listed Hochschild (HOC), which mines both silver and gold is also worth a look.
Both companies have mines which have had to close due to Covid-19 lockdowns, so please check if they have reopened yet.

Hi Golden Bull!
Cash or Hummingbird shares is a good question - not forgetting that there are other gold miners out there as well.
My answer would be a chunk of both. And not a lot of anything else. The wider stock market seems to me to be wildly overpriced.
Sterling price of gold creeping up - now nearly £1,400 oz.

Hi Moneyhawk!
Just checked the GLR board. You're right - MinorMiner is just revenge trolling.

Hi Stoodio!
There are a fair number of South African chrome miners - big and small - that are enduring serious financial pain at the moment from low chrome prices.
Over at JLP, Leon Coetzer once commented that he had identified 42 piles of historic chrome tailings for possible acquisition and PGM extraction. I'm sure Sylvnaia have a similar list of possible expansion targets.
Certainly, SLP are not a bank, and whilst I like it that they are debt free and they hold a safety margin of cash, there is no point in just holding so much cash and doing nothing with it.

Hi Minor Miner!
OK, you're being too cryptic for simple old me again.
Why would Jubilee need to raise that much money in equity? Samancor will have been paid in full for Hernic by now, current operations are not burning cash, and capital expenditure at Sable (i.e. the zinc line) has been postponed.
The only reason to raise money that I can see would be to buy in to a new project. This might not be the best moment to do that, admittedly.

Hi Ragnar!
Rhodium now back up at $4,500 / oz (Kitco prices) again. But, yes, the price for this directly-traded super-expensive precious metal does bounce around alarmingly. Auto demand will have declined over the last few months, of course, but that may have been balanced out by interruptions in supply. Hopefully, we're still in a market deficit scenario.
Technically, we're investing in the Bermuda based parent company here, and it is they who pay us a dividend. But I also have wondered about how Sylvania move money out of South Africa (presumably by Sylvania Dump Operations (SA) paying dividends to the Bermuda topco), and how much this costs in taxes etc.
A big dividend announcement in August, along the likes of that hinted at by Liberum in their last house broker note, would of course cause a massive rerate here...

Hi Ragnar!
Thanks for sharing your valuation - which (like mine) uses some pretty conservative assumptions. All in all, I think around 80p would be "fair" value for SLP currently.
We're so far beneath your and my valuations right now that there's no point arguing over the difference between 73p and 80p and 85p and even 100p.
When we get to 60p I'll start to worry about fair value. Until then, IMO SLP is an outstanding value buy. Especially in the current market!

Well, the company has made about $50m in the first three quarters of this financial year. The current quarter will probably come out at about break-even, thanks to the South African lockdown (over) and subsequent ramp-up (ongoing).
So how much is a "fair" mcap for a debt free, cash rich ($45m in bank), dividend paying and buyback exercising, well-managed, low cost rhodium-palladium-platinum producer? A fairly miserable P/E of 5 would imply a market cap of around £200m, and that's not allowing for the cash in the bank.
The current market-cap? About £125m!
So, yes, this share is also the best opportunity I know of. 60p would still be cheap.

Yes, somebody with a whole lot of shares is happy to sell them at around 27p.
Ideally, there will be a statement that Hummingbird now are net debt positive (i.e. they have more cash in hand than outstanding debt) along with the accounts in a couple of weeks. I hope that's enough to clear the seller.