Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi SlickHarry!
If you don't recognise the names of the Colonel and Barnaberible, then you really haven't been paying attention here!

Hi Cherryburn!
Since you're new here (I believe), it may help to think of this board as a friendly local pub, where the talk at the bar can and does veer off topic.
I also had a couple of posts removed yesterday. Somebody asked about fellow goldie Resolute and I suggested where they could research further and warned them that the company might not be as cheap as it seems at first blush. If those posts are going to fall foul of the self-appointed censor here, then (sadly) there is little point to this board.
"Up the revolution!" Tiger, aka Citizen Wolfie Smith

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-06-03/Amplats-announces-temporary-closure-of-ACP-Phase-B-unit.html

Hi Velo!
The next trading date update (Q2 2020) should arrive at the end of July. SLP almost always report exactly a month after the previous quarter has finished.
Their informal guidance is for 68,000 ounces this financial year (7/2019 to 6/2020), which would mean only 8,000 ounces or so produced in the current quarter. I guess four weeks of lockdown, ramp-up, ongoing Covid restrictions, and other operational difficulties (e.g. Samancor cutbacks) all play a part in that low number.
Financially, I'm hoping that they break-even on this quarter - the basket price is still high. I'm a little concerned that they will have to report a sharp decrease in the dollar value of the cash pile, as most of it has been kept in SA rand, which have depreciated substantially.
Finals (in August) should indeed be impressive.

Hi Hawkspear!
Even if you take the worst case, the increase in AISC is not too bad, as long as the gold price stays where it is.
Note how some of the extra casts come from extra stripping as they seek to increase ounces produced whilst the gold price is so high. That's good business sense.

Shouldn't that be "whilst one swallow doesn't make a summer..."
Quite a big beat on my expectations for EBITDA. Nice to make maiden profit. Good that guidance is reconfirmed (i.e. production must be on track). I was half-expecting the increase in AISC already; Covid must be increasing their costs in all kinds of ways. Dugbe (which I've been negative about in the past when the gold price was lower) is gradually becoming viable.

I think the advantage that James Campbell has is that he really, really knows what he is talking about. And it shows.

Hi Erixlie!
This might be of interest to you:
1. Why do you imagine building a mine in the frozen tundra of the Kola Peninsula will be cheap? It's ridiculously high cost. You need specialised tracked transport even to get across the permafrost. (I've been to Monchegorsk). Attracting any kind of a workforce to work there is also a huge problem. By and large, only the most desperate drunks are prepared to work in such a frozen, dark, and toxic hellhole. Almost everybody in Monchegorsk develops lung problems (TB etc.) after a few years.
2. It would be easier to obtain capital for South Africa than for Russia. Everybody understands how corrupt Russia is, and how insecure legal possession is. All it takes is one phone call from the top and the courts swing into action to do their master's bidding. (That's not to deny that SA has problems, by the way).
3. There seems to be an assumption on here that Norilsk Nickel will agree to process ore from a third party, and to do it cheap. I know them well. They won't.
4. Why do people on here keep assuming that the flanks are mineralised?!? There is no proof that they are, or that they will be commercial to mine. The paid for broker note was the most ridiculous ramp I've ever read.
As I said, MT is worth a $50m to $100m valuation - on a good day. And it will be very hard to find a buyer, especially in these times. Some of the figures quoted on this board have been unheard of absurd. If (the all powerful) Norilsk Nickel wants it, then the price will be more like $10m "go away" money.
I'm just puzzled how AIM came to value this company so crazily. Is it because PIs prefer a nice fantasy bedtime story to doing their maths homework properly? Or why?

Hi Northman!
Careful with saying anything bad / true about GGP - we'll have their fan club coming on here shouting you down.
I could add A LOT more, but in the interests of peace and quiet, I won't.

Hi Stoodio!
I've always understood that the reason for the buyback of the shares from mostly very small legacy Australian shareholders to be cost management. In particular, it's very expensive (administratively speaking) to pay these shareholders their dividends.
Sylvania has announced other and more significant share buybacks in the past. But this one is just good housekeeping...

Go check the whole project out.
There are others out there as well, similarly valued. Do some research. It's not hard.
Your valuation of MT is the thing that is ridiculous. The talk of billions on here is laughable.
Anyway, I won't bother you any more. You'll find out the truth in due course.
And, yes, South Africa (for all its problems) is a whole lot safer investment destination than Russia. Again, do some research.

I think this might help some of the more optimistic posters here to put a more accurate valuation on Monchetundra:
https://www.kitco.com/leadgen/companies/PlatinumGroupMetals/
Notes:
1. 15% stake for $30m = Impala (one of the world's biggest PGM miners) value the whole enterprise at $200m.
2. The mine project is FAR more advanced than EUA's project, with a DFS complete and all permissions obtained. 15m ounces here is a PROVEN mineable resource, not a "hope" figure generated by some pretend paid for analyst.
3. The basket price of the PGMs here will be HIGHER than the basket price of Monchetundra. This is thanks to the presence of around 10% of super-expensive rhodium.
4. Most would agree that South Africa is a better jurisdiction than Russia. Cheaper, too.
In short, Monchetundra, on a good day might sell for around 1/4 to 1/2 of this project's value (IMO). That is $50m to $100m.
Can you see now see how grossly overvalued this company was before its suspension?

Hi GoldenBull!
OK, so it seems hummingbirds are better-traveled than I was taught.
When in lived in Los Angeles one nested in a tree right outside my window - an Anna's Hummingbird, I think. It laid the tiniest egg imaginable - no bigger than a newborn baby's fingernail.
Maybe the RNS this morning means the selling has finally finished. If so, this could rerate quite quickly.

Hi GoldenBull!
On this most crucial and important issue, I do believe you may be wrong...
https://www.dkfindout.com/uk/animals-and-nature/birds/hummingbirds/
In Africa, sunbirds fill the ecological niche that hummingbirds fill in the Americas.
I hope you're right about the dam cracking. God only knows, it's about time. The EV/EBITDA on this share is about 1.5, which is ridiculous(ly good).

I've decided to finally ask the question that has always bothered me about Hummingbird.
Why Hummingbird? I know "a rose by any other name would smell as sweet", and a gold mine by any other name would be as profitable. But hummingbirds are American birds, and Hummingbird is an African miner. Why not "Sun Bird Gold" - that would be more fitting ornithologically? Or "Chimp Gold"? Or "Pygmy Hippo Gold?"
Yours, puzzled and confused,
Tiger

Hi Caribbean!
Wow, that is one hostile reaction to a bit of harmless "take a look at us!" fluff.
Of course we are all waiting for the Annual Results, and I don't think joining the World Gold Council will inspire a frenzy of share buying. But I can't see how this is bad news in any way.
I'd guess the annual results will either come later this week or next now. The PR machine is obviously in operation.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-05-29/Over-100-macro-diamonds-recovered-from-Botswana-Diamonds-Marsfontein.html

I'm still pretty amazed that the diamond news has been taken so quietly by the market. That mining site Kitco choose to publicise better reflects its true importance, IMO.

The other thing to note about tech companies is that two of biggest of them - Google and Facebook - depend heavily on advertising spend. There is an old saying: "when the economy catches a cold, the ad business catches flu." When a company needs to cutback, their ad budget is always the place they cut first. I'd expect some pretty disappointing revenue numbers from those two companies later in the year.
Good NED appointment here this morning. And thanks to Siko, as ever, for his posts.

Trades are one way traffic this morning!
Obviously, our regular persistent seller will come in and balance out all the buys at some point. The question is, how many more shares do they have left to offload? Hopefully, the share price will rerate to a more reasonable level once they are done - it's heavily suppressed right now compared to comparable gold miners.

Hi Whippetout!
The wider stock market is also blowing my mind at the moment. There are plenty of debt-laden companies with busted business models whose shares have risen 50% over the last month. I'm really puzzled by the phenomenon, but not about to climb on the bandwagon!
Two points on burger boy's posts:
1) Yes, catalytic converter production (in numbers) will be down this year. But loadings of PGMs in each catalytic converter produced are increasing thanks to China 6, India 6, and Europe 6 emission regulations. Also, mine production and recycling of PGMs is falling. The palladium and rhodium markets are still sellers' markets. Links have posted on this board to various pieces of research from Norilsk Nickel, JMAT and others backing this up.
2) Nothing is without risk, of course. But a well-run debt-free cash-rich low cost surface tailings retreatment operator is a heck of a lot less risky than most comparables.