Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Prof!
Oh for a couple of empty swimming pools in Texas so I could take delivery of a few thousand barrels of crude at -$40 each! I'd just to need to park it there for about six months, and then I'm sure I could sell it back into the system for a (un)healthy profit.
Meanwhile actual physical gold and silver are trading at a huge premium over their official spot and futures prices. If you can find any on sale, 1 oz silver coins will cost you $30 each or so, a 100% premium over spot. That's also ridiculous.
I saw the collapse of communism first hand in Russia. That was a pretty bizarre experience. I remember once carrying $4,000 around in bundles of cash roubles - they filled a shoulder bag. I figured if anybody tried to rob me, I'd just whack them with the bag and knock them cold.
The current crisis is beginning to have the same feel of end times weirdness...

Hi Speedy!
Don't say you weren't warned when the time comes for GGP, which it most likely will. IMO, Alex Borelli's presence on a company board is the reddest of red flags. He's way worse than, say, Colin Bird.
You should also realise that the Haveiron discovery is unlikely to be commercial - 600m down, medium grades (not high), and not really amenable to bulk mining in a high cost location rarely adds up to a commercial prospect. Newcrest will probably drill a few holes to check it out and then pass - there's nothing unusual about that.
IMO, sell while you can for what you can get. GGP shares are probably worthless in the long run.

HI Dansul,
125K ounces of gold for Q1 is way higher than the figure I'm expecting - which is around 100K ounces based on the 40%/60% H1/H2 split for this year's production already announced by Centamin.
I hope it's true!!!

IMO, the truth is that SLP was undervalued when the share price was in the 60s.
As a result of the coronavirus, SLP will lose about 1 month of production. The Pt-Pd-Rh basket price has also come off a little, though it is still very healthy (Pd at $2,000 plus, Rh at $6,000 are way higher than in Q4 2019). The company's balance sheet is still very strong.
I'm finding it hard to price shares on fundamentals in this new world that we are in; a lot of shares seem to me to be crazy expensive, given their likely forward revenues and earnings. But I make SLP still cheap.

Goldies?
My picks of London goldies would be CEY and PAF. Both undervalued in my book. HGM too, if you don't mind Russia risk. AAZ and SHG also worthy of serious consideration.
HUM is seriously cheap considering its NPV, though its management isn't top class. More or less the same can be said of RSG.
If you're looking for a major, IMO it's best to go for Barrick - NYSE:GOLD - or maybe for Anglo-Gold Ashanti.
GGP, well, you need to remember its chairman is Alex Borelli - as in THE Alex Borelli of BMR. Take a look at the BMR board if you think your money is safe with him. In general, investing in gold exploration companies is a mug's game - most fail.
All IMO and DYOR. Hope this helps!

https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/41329-sa-mining-sector-to-ramp-up-to-50-of-production-as-govt-relaxes-lockdown-regulation/

https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/41329-sa-mining-sector-to-ramp-up-to-50-of-production-as-govt-relaxes-lockdown-regulation/

https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/41329-sa-mining-sector-to-ramp-up-to-50-of-production-as-govt-relaxes-lockdown-regulation/

Hi Prof!
The only explanation I can offer for Centamin's sluggish share price is that we must have a big seller. Nothing to do but wait for them to finish. Still, it's a pretty ridiculous position, considering the fundamentals here.
Hopefully the new CEO can inspire some positive vibes around the company on Tuesday.

The board have no incentive to agree to a takeover - they own small numbers of shares and they are extremely well paid.
So any offer would almost certainly have to be a hostile one. I reckon 35p per share would do it, given Hummingbird's backstory. Which would be, in the grand scheme of things, an absolute bargain for the buyer.

I read the section on Bunker Hill as Dan Betts's attempt to justify getting Hummingbird mixed up in this unfortunate business. It's ingenuous to claim that Hummingbird's shares in this illiquid microcap are worth $2m at current prices - if Hummingbird ever tried to sell them Bunker Hill's share price would collapse like a house of cards. Personally, I find it very hard to believe that the Bunker Hill mine will ever be re-opened - it was an ecological horror story in the past, and I expect any new US administration to reverse the approval given by Trump's notoriously corrupt EPA. All in all, I wish Hummingbird would just bury this foolish investment and never mention it in public again. Supporting Cora would be a far better use of shareholder money.
BUT, that said, we are talking pennies in the grand scheme of things. So I'm looking past it.
I thought the section on Dugbe was quite sensible - the higher gold price means the proposed deal is a lot less attractive. And the lab test work on a possible heap leaching operation is an intelligent move. I don't think the current share price attributes even a pennysworth of value to Dugbe, in any case.
I'm also surprised by the share price action today, but the markets are beyond crazy at the moment.

You'd think 30p+ was on the cards today. But the times are weird, so who knows...
Still, this is one company that is still fully operational, and whose end product is in ever increasing demand. So I hope that the market recognises that.

Hi Saxondale!
Yep. If they already had an airstrip, they would have shipped the gold out immediately and got less for it. Instead, because they don't have an airstrip, they've earnt an extra 1m quid or so, which is more than enough to pay for the building of a new one! Nice...

Hard to quantify how many new ounces RSG may have discovered from this drilling. But the intercepts are oxides, high grade, shallow, and near existing haul roads - so they should add up to easy money for RSG.

Yes, that's all good news. Yanfolila operating to plan, and mine life in the process of being extended. This share is way underpriced considering its future cashflows.

Hi Cowichan!
What I think we'll get and what I'm hoping for are two different things.
I think we'll get Q1 production of around 100K ounces, plus reasonable figures for last year, plus confirmation of current guidance and that Covid19 isn't affecting operations, plus confirmation of the announced dividend. Fortunately, I think that the market isn't expecting all that much from Centamin at the moment, so that might be enough to ensure a minor bounce in the share price.
What I'm hoping for is a great deal more, including a well-articulated plan for future growth from the new CEO, together with a decent share purchase at market rates. Centamin has lacked a clear sense of direction for years now; it's about time that changed.
I still rate a new takeover bid as likely. (Though I admit that my prediction of Barrick by Easter was wrong, even if my first call on Endeavour by Christmas was right.) Centamin is still a very appealing acquisition target for a major.

Hi O2!
SLP have made a statement about Covid - they are not working currently and production guidance is suspended. It looks like South Africa will have to extend the lockdown as well, if they wish it to be effective. Also, there is the pending question of which of SLP's host mines will be closed by struggling Samancor in the near future.
Another key issue here is how much demand will there be in the near future for palladium and rhodium from the world auto industry. This doesn't look good right now, and Rh-Pd prices are beginning to reflect this.
All told, I have lots of questions and few answers right now.
The money in the bank is good. The results from Jan-Feb will be excellent. But what about the future?

Hi Mr. Tibbles!
Without naming names, I have the misfortune (via a family connection) of knowing one of the very top people in Corbyn's clique.
Very definitely highly antisemitic - if antisemitic is to wish Israel to be obliterated by a nuclear strike. Also extremely predatory in a sexual context, a cheerleader for IRA terrorism, and an admirer of Putin and Stalin. All in all, a nasty piece of work.
I find it incredibly hard to believe that Corbyn was not fully aware of the prejudices of one his top lieutenants.
Good luck to Keir Starmer in cleaning Labour's house. It's a massive job - the Augean Stables. I'll believe it when he expels some of the party's top officers; no less than that is what is required.
Anyway, back to the garden for me. I still have a few Centamin shares, but mostly I'm staying clear of the stock market for now.

Hi Kalan!You wrote about JLP: "Wish I knew the actual cash position and debt position."So do I!I'd advise caution around JLP until the interims are published. The fact is the Inyoni (Hernic) chrome deal was a fantastic deal - but for Samancor, and not for JLP. It may well have sucked all the cash out of the company. As operations are now closed, this could mean that JLP's survival is now at stake. (New debt finance is out of the question, and an equity raise would be almost impossible in the current market). If the interims are not crystal clear about the current cash and debt position then I will assume the worst.

South Africa will go under lockdown for 3 weeks over coronavirus
From CNN's Max Ramsay in London

South Africa will enforce a three-week lockdown due to the coronavirus outbreak, the country's President Cyril Ramaphosa said in a televised address Monday.

The lockdown will start at midnight on March 26 and end at midnight on April 16, Ramaphosa said.

During this time, "all South Africans will have to stay at home," Ramaphosa said. People who are exempted from the order include emergency and security services and those involved in critical services like food production and banking.

- Presumably this means that JLP's South African operations will have to stop production for 3 weeks. Or not?