Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Dasut!
I sincerely hope that Centamin have already tasked a couple of geologists to check out every abandoned mine in the Eastern Desert, and to hammer some rocks for samples. Less than that would be serious negligence.
Given Centamin's "first mover" advantage, they really should be able to secure the best of the new concessions. It's one of the reasons I make Centamin an attractive takeover target for a major goldie, perhaps Barrick.

Hi Barna!
Yep, that was definitely it:
"Anglo American shares have dropped by 8.4% after a majority-owned subsidiary of the FTSE 100 miner said it would be unable to honour its contracts. Anglo American Platinum declared force majeure as it will be unable to process any materials for 80 days after a smelting plant was hit by an explosion. It cut its 2020 production outlook."

Hi Cadell!
I don't consider myself an expert, but, yes, I agree that the high gold price should eventually cause a rerate here.
It's worth reading the posts on hotcopper.com.au for more background. There's a lot of bad feeling about past actions of management which is weighing on this share. However, the next quarterly results should be good (crossed fingers), and that should start to change minds about this heavily underpriced share. IMO, the key issue will be showing that production at Syama is finally meeting expectations.

Yes, I've also been impressed by the way palladium and rhodium prices have been holding up - they are SLP's two main sources of revenue now.
Platinum, like silver, has not been doing so well. I guess the market sees them both as industrial metals and not in deficit. But, in the context of SLP, that's not so important.

Hi Ragnar!
I know it's just dumb luck, and I don't want to risk any bad karma by saying too much, but things have indeed been going well.
I hope your investments are growing as well!
I still think the big gains in PAF, CEY etc. are in front of us, and not behind. As for SLP, in the end business is about making money, and SLP simply make an awful lot of it.

US 10 year treasury bond yield now under 0.7% - easily an all time record.
Gold $1,685 / oz.
Centamin is indeed lagging.
All in all, we are living through extraordinary times. I'm watching very closely for signs of cracks in the corporate bond market - especially loss of liquidity and widening spreads. That could be the first indicator that we are close to a crash.
I can't work out if gold and gold stocks will soar straight up if the market cracks, or if there will be another forced liquidation event to go through first (i.e. a sharp drop before the big rise). So for now I'm still holding a high percentage of cash.

Sorry, folks; my bad.
There's no echo chamber quite like the EUA board. They are still dreaming of sudden mega-riches over there. Anybody who even hints that things might not be quite as they imagine is jumped on.
In general, I agree that this is a rare buying opportunity here.

Hi Wolster!
SLP doesn't need any pumping, my friend. It just is an outstanding business.
EPS of 12.6p (that's from the interims, doubled for full financial year) against a share price of 52p + no debts + $33.6m in cash + other assets (e.g. Volspruit)...
Current quarter (Q3) will be an absolute blow-out, thanks to high PGM prices...
99/99 on Stockopedia, top pick of Simon Thompson of Investor's Chronicle, a Zulu share...
This jargon may or may not mean much to you. But to an experienced investor, it does! Why on earth anybody would invest in EUA when SLP is around is beyond my (admittedly limited) comprehension.

Look, folks, you'd do far better to worry about your own investment here.
Yes, you can't lose more than 100% if you're long, and a shorter can technically lose an infinite amount.
But, this company's shares have been suspended for weeks without a satisfactory explanation, and there is only so much time left before they will be delisted permanently. All kinds of dark rumours are floating around the City about EUA. The company paid-for research that you based your ridiculous valuations of Monchetundra on has DISAPPEARED from the company's website - i.e. the Nomad has probably forced its removal. I ask, was this all a pump and dump scheme organised from the inside?
I certainly regard a 200m quid mcap as plain comical for this company and its assets. The Urals platinum operation is small beer, and the Monchetundra asset is very early stage, only Russian C1 (i.e. less than inferred), and in Nornickel's back yard.
All in all, I'd think a 30-50m mcap would be nearer the mark.
I'm neither rather short nor long here. But I'd sleep better if I were short.

Hi Jammer!
I agree with the facts that you've laid out.
I'm just not so sure about your conclusion. Surely the best thing JLP could do to secure the small licence extension is actually process some tailings?!? We know the Zambian authorities are looking to take away unused mining licences - and indeed have done so in several instances.
And why should Galileo's applications for a small scale licence for Star Zinc and the renewal of the large scale licence have any bearing on Jubilee and the tailings.
I wonder if the hold up isn't that any company applying to hold a small scale licence must have 50% Zambian shareholders. Just a speculation.

Hi Rosewall!
The copper produced at Sable comes from a different source - apparently from some material stored on the refinery site and forgotten about by Glencore.
Not an ounce of the Kabwe mine tailings (i.e. the zinc, lead, vanadium rich material covered by the small licence) has been processed; even though it is now more than 2 years since the original deal. I don't have firm proof, but my intuition says that there is some major legal or administrative problem which is not being disclosed to its shareholders by JLP.
Do JLP/BMR still have the small licence? Have ZEMA interfered? Is there legal action pending?

Hi Bring!
I think you may be missing the obvious here.
It is now 2 years since the first deal between JLP and BMR. Not an ounce of tailings from Kabwe has yet been processed.
Why is this?
I think it's fair now to ask if the Kabwe tailings will ever be processed and monetised. (In their communications, Jubilee are constantly downplaying the Kabwe tailings, speaking of refining copper and cobalt at Sable, and buying in zinc ore from 3rd parties, and putting off the construction of the lead and vanadium circuits, etc.)
Reading between the lines, I make it that there must be serious, perhaps insuperable, undisclosed legal / administrative problems with processing the Kabwe dumps material. Perhaps ZEMA, perhaps something else.
Perhaps we have it all back to front? Rather than Jubilee "preying" on BMR, perhaps Alex Borelli sold Colin Bird a worthless pup?

Yes, I am!
I'm thinking this is good value right now (at 139p).
But I already have quite a few CEY shares, so I'm feeling picky and I'm holding on for 137p.
I just checked the news etc. and I can't see any fundamental reason for the weakness. Probably just a decent sized seller is tipping the balance downwards.

Hi Carribean!
You might find that worth researching in more detail. Mali is a huge country - bigger than France - and very diverse.
I make it that Hummingbird is well away from the worst of the troubles, which are in the north (the Sahara) and in the central province (that particular conflict is basically tribal, with only a veneer of religion to it).

Hi TwoGoals!
The director buys would seem to indicate that production is going to plan.
(Unless you want to get paranoid, and claim the buys are some kind of cunning bluff. But then, why? HUM don't need to place shares...)

Hi Sotolo!
I probably do overtrade. But somehow I usually manage to blunder my way to a profit. Especially with Centamin, PAF, and SLP, which are my "lucky" shares.
I tend to think of trades in packets. For instance, I bought heavily when the Endeavour bid fell through and CEY immediately slumped to about 117p. I wrote at the time that was a gift, and I took it with both hands. I sold out those shares from 128p and upwards, selling the last ones at 160p. I also did a few successful 3% to 5% momentum trades during the rise. So, all in all, that was a good packet of trades.
However, I bought back in too soon on the drop back at 150p. Since then I've added at 133p and at 139p on the announcement of the US 50bps interest rate cut. So right now I'm just out of the money on this new packet of trades. In my mind I picture Centamin moving up to 160p and beyond as gold and gold miners become increasingly appealing in this uncertain low interest rate environment.
But I could easily be wrong. It's possible there will be another big drop in the wider market, and gold and gold stocks will be liquidated to meet margin calls again. In which case I will wait the drop out.
Finally, the price of gold is largely determined by real interest rates. And they are falling. How can gold - nobody's liability - not be a good investment in a world where trillions of paper debt yields less than nothing?!?
As a mind game, I'm trying to imagine what else might be a good investment in this environment. Tele-conferencing? Medical mask manufacturers? Netflix (for all those staying at home in quarantine?) There really isn't much to go long on.
Alternatively, it could also be worth shorting Boeing, GE, Tesla, and any other heavily indebted corporate behemoths.
Any other ideas?

(Copied from CEY board)

Peel Hunt Metals & Mining 02nd March 2020

Yields support gold amid a viral storm
Recent expectations of further interest rate cuts supporting the
gold price have been driven by evidence that COVID-19 is on
the verge of being a pandemic. We now forecast gold atpEE
US$1,700/oz in 2020 and expect support to persist, with upside
potential should the outbreak worsen and drive real interest rates
further into negative territory. Pan African# and Serabi# look to
offer the best upside in these scenarios, while Centamin looks
close to fair value even in this higher gold price environment.
Increasing our gold price forecast to US$1,700/oz in 2020
Just six months back in August we revised up our gold price deck as spot gold
crossed US$1,500/oz and looked well supported. However, with gold having
come close to the US$1,700/oz mark last week (vs our US$1,525/oz forecast for
H1 2020), we have increased our 2020 gold price forecast to US$1,700/oz to
give investors a better feel for the cash flows we now expect in 2020.
Elevated gold price justified by negative yields and growth concerns
With continued gold ETF purchases into 2020 driven by falling yields and
further growth concerns, we now see continued support for the gold price
through mid-2020. Our US$1,700/oz gold forecast for this year is driven by our
belief of two Fed cuts and 1.4% inflation. The economic consensus of no cuts
and 2% inflation would support gold over the US$1,600/oz level.
EBITDA upgrades drive elevated cash flows through mid-2020
We expect to see a round of estimate upgrades as strong gold prices drive
increased cash flows through H2 2020. We forecast average 2020 EBITDA
upgrades of 28%, with an average margin of 49% by H2 2020 (ex-POG). This
drives even stronger bottom-line 2020 EPS upgrades, which average 49%.

Target prices up 20% on average, PAF and SRB offer the greatest upside
We have today lowered our rating on POG to Add from Buy, but maintain our
ratings on all the other stocks. Our average target price increase is 20% over the
coming 12 months. While POG has the greatest upside value leverage to gold,
HOC has the lowest due to its silver exposure. SRB and PAF have the greatest
upside to the new target prices at 70% and 57% respectively.

Hi Ragnar!
On the other hand, PAF did represent an excellent buying opportunity in the minutes after the Fed rate cut. I certainly added, though I had to buy in frustratingly small tranches!
Obviously, there has been a persistent seller around. But they should clear now, and PAF should rise to a more reasonable level (13.5p?).

Hi Mr. Tibbles!
Thanks for posting the Peel Hunt notes.
I do agree with them that the excellently managed PAF is undervalued, but I think they are badly underestimating the appeal (no debts, lots of cash, big dividend, superb mineral resource) of Centamin in the current low to no yield environment.
I've got to say that I see a lot of money flowing into gold miners in the next few days and weeks. Personally, I don't even know where else to put money, except to keep it in cash.

Not a shareholder.
My admiration to you all if you vote "no". I admire your resolve to put your dignity over your wallet - it's good old Yorkshire bloodymindedness.
But, make no mistake, these shares are worthless if you do. I am alarmed by the posters that still do no realise this simple truth - the board have you trussed up like a turkey.