Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Does anybody know when the annual results are due? Surely it must be soon.
I can't find the date on Centamin's website.

Hi dsfat!
My take on it is that an ill wind blows no good.
I think the coronavirus will cause enough economic disruption (not considering the human tragedy of it all) to tip the world into a recession and to burst the bubble in stocks. Cash will be a good place to be. So will gold. Perhaps not bonds - they are in a bubble too.
As for Sylvania, palladium and rhodium (and really platinum as well) are classed as precious metals, but in truth they are just extremely expensive industrial metals, used chiefly by the car industry. If car production slows in a recession, then demand for them will slow as well. I don't see a collapse in Rh-Pd-Pt prices, simply because the current deficit is so severe, but maybe they will fall back a little (e.g. to prices we only dreamt of last summer).
However, if we are in for a recession, then I'd regard Sylvania as one of the best stocks to hold. It trades at a very low P/E, it is debt free and cash rich. It is that kind of company that can weather the storm and then profit fully from the aftermath.
I've sold most of my portfolio of stocks for cash. But SLP I'm holding onto.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/platts-6-commodity-charts-watch-week-7
Chart 4 concerns the rhodium market. Rhodium is, of course, currently Sylvania's largest source of revenue - followed by palladium, and then by platinum.

Good to see that the board have confidence in their company.

It should be added that a lot of its diamonds were fancy yellow gemstones, which sell at a big premium over "ordinary" colourless diamonds.

M1 is the original mother lode - a fortune was extracted from an area about the size of a small garden. Or in the words of an old RNS:
"The Marsfontein mine, which comprises a kimberlite blow, was operated for two years in the late 1990's with a pay-back of its entire development cost in less than four days. Marsfontein's run of mine grade was 172cpht (at a bottom cut off of +1.2mm), and its assortment was known to contain fancy coloured diamonds."

Well, if it's got M1 pipe historic grades, then they've hit the jackpot.
And then some.

This is mega news for BOD holders.

So they did it!
Congratulations to James Campbell and all the team.
This should be quite a ride from here!

Added more again today. I thought HUM (being mispriced) would get to 30p under its own steam. Now I think the price of gold will push it quite a bit higher over the next couple of weeks.
IMO, the world economy is looking decidedly dodgy: US yield curve collapsing, volume of negative yielding debt increasing, coronavirus causing economic havoc (as well as human tragedy), and US PMI going below 50 (i.e. into contraction). All this adds up to lower interest rates and yet more easing worldwide, and that means gold should go up and stay up.
I sold out most of my "normal" stocks as well (except SLP), and added shares in other goldies - PAF & CEY.

A seller sat on the bid this morning, soaking up all the available liquidity, and driving down the share price. (I swear almost all the printed trades are actually buys).
The seller has stopped, at least for now. IMO, when they are gone for good, this will rise. But when?

I don't question that Sylvania (SLP) is a better short, medium, and long term PGM play than Tharisa (THS). God knows, I have enough shares in this company, which I have no intention of selling, especially with the current P/E hovering around all of 5.
All I'd say about Tharisa is that a misprice had occurred. The market dropped Tharisa down to c. 75p on the back of some pretty disappointing results in November. The share had flatlined since then, completely ignoring the fact that PGM prices had boomed, and that thus THS's revenues will have substantially increased. (I make it by about 25% overall - even allowing for the most recent dip in chrome prices.) IMO, that's an inefficient market, and an opportunity to profit as Tharisa's share price corrects back to a more "normal" valuation.

The thing about this share is that nobody knows the right price for it. The current market cap is either way too little or way too much, and nothing in between.
If one of two things happen, the market cap is way too little - by a huge margin. The two things being the grant of the small scale mining licence for Star Zinc (imminent and quite likely), and the grant of the mining licence for Glenover (which has dragged on for years).
If neither of those things happen, then the company doesn't have a quick route to monetizing its assets, and the current share price is too much.
You puts your money down and you watches the roulette wheel whirl, I guess.

I've averaged up today.
I'm seeing a lot of value in this company with gold prices at this level.
All we need is for HUM to make guidance - no nasty surprises - and this should rerate.

On a really quick figures and thumbs basis the PGM price boom should mean that revenues here have increased by c. 25% over the previous year (based on stable production).
That's allowing for a price drop in chrome from an average $150/t last year to $133/t now.
If the company can maintain their guidance, (which is higher than last year's production) then there should be a fairly substantial rerate to come here. It probably needs Q2 results for that to happen, though.

Hi Ragnar!
I'm resisting the temptation to top-slice here for now. I still think we've got a way to go.
Talking of rising tides lifting all boats, have you ever looked at Tharisa (THS)? Their guidance is for 160K ounces of 6E PGMs this year (and a load of chrome), and so far their share price hasn't responded at all to what must be a major incoming boost to their revenues.

Hi LUFC!
There's enough visibility on the contents of JLP's PGM basket to make calculations. See Bullster's running basket price calculations over on the ADVFN board.
It's worth also mentioning that the new Windsor PGM output has a higher rhodium content than the old Hernic / Inyoni output. That will also drive earnings higher.

Following on...
So palladium and rhodium made up 23% of the company's revenue in FY 10/2018 to 9/2019.
Since then palladium and rhodium prices have both more than doubled (that's an underestimate - I'll work it out more precisely later) and they are both making new highs right now.
Platinum prices have also improved slightly, whilst chrome prices are down slightly (from above $145/t to $135/t).
Surely all these movements add up to a major boost to revenues, assuming that production is unchanged (and guidance is for it to improve)?
So why is the share price flatlining?
Even if they only got back to the EPS of FY2017-2018 (19 cents) that would mean this company was trading on a P/E of about 5. And the "current" EPS should be substantially higher than this.
Please shoot me down if I am missing some key piece of info here. I'm a beginner with this company.

Why hasn't this moved up with all the other PGM miners?
160K ounces of 6E PGMs is a lot of money, given the current basket price.
So what if the chrome part of the operation is only breaking even?

Cobus showing some confidence in the company - always a good sign.