Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hey, I've got a few shares in GLR!
I like a gamble and I allow myself one pure "punt" at a time. GLR is it at the moment. Very risky, but potentially very high rewards (probably a ten bagger given its mcap this morning was 2m quid).
No real idea what this morning's share movements are about. Could be a leak. Could be a twitter organised P&D. Could be a placing. Time will tell.

My "rough" scorecard on JLP's operations:
1. Hernic / Inyoni PGMs - should be mega profitable at current PGM prices.
2. Hernic / Inyoni chrome - comes "for free", so low chrome prices don't really matter.
3. Windsor PGMs - probably highly profitable. I wish we understood more about JLP's commercial relationship with Northam.
4. Windsor chrome - we're lucky if they are breaking even at current chrome prices.
5. Dilakong - PGMs still waiting for licence - no income. Why don't they just truck them off to a nearby processing plant whilst PGM prices are high?
6. Dilakong fine chrome - probably losing smallish amounts of money. The fine chrome process doesn't really have commercial viability whilst chrome prices are this low. Who needs "extra" chrome?
7. Tjate - currently no value included in the share price. One day this asset will surprise us. But when? Not until hydrogen fuel cells are widely adopted, methinks.
8. Zambia. Two separate major assets:
a. Sable refinery - some income from copper, but (IMO) it will be loss making on operations, and the zinc line will eating up capex.
b. Kabwe (i.e. the mountain of tailings from the old mine). God only knows what is going on with this asset; there seems to be a total news blackout about it. Still, the tailings won't be eating up any capex right now.
Cashflow: likely constrained, but they must have paid for most of the Inyoni deal by now. I think an equity raise would have already happened if it had been necessary. There could always be a raise for a new asset, of course, but that's a different issue, and if it adds EPS then it would be justified.
My conclusion: it's worth buying a few more at less than 4p. High PGM prices must be making a huge difference to JLP's finances.

Hi Barna!
Timely and understandable numbers would make a huge difference to how the market perceives this company.
Currently, understanding this business is like running some kind of perverse accountancy obstacle course. I wish they would just copy SLP's practises, and report openly and fully every 3 months.

Hi TopCatz!
I agree that Tjate is a white swan - its sale when it comes will somehow seem to have been inevitable for years, but right now people are placing no value on it at all.
I also agree that there are good reasons for putting money in JLP. And I am contemplating adding here.
But I disagree that it's a good idea to sell SLP. The recent underpricing there was ridiculous, and (IMO) there is a good rise there still to come - as well as the possibility of some mega dividends. Anyway, I'm holding on to my pile of SLP shares for the prospective future.

I just thought I'd mark the fact that Sylvania is now trading at the giddy heights of a P/E of 5.
(Figure derived from fully diluted EPS figure from H1 interim results, annualised (x2), and converted to sterling = 12.6p. 12.6p x 5 = 63.6p. N.B. This doesn't allow for the facts that the company is debt free and it holds $33.6m in cash, and that PGM prices have boomed since H1 period end (31/12/2019)).
This company has to be good for a P/E of at least 6, doesn't it?!?

Yes. All the time. (Just like Jubilee).

Why doesn't JLP buy GLR?
Leon has made it clear on many occasions that he sees JLP as a metals recovery company (i.e. a tailings/waste reprocessor) rather than as a true mining company.
Tjate is a legacy mining asset held over from the past of the company. It's potentially worth a great deal of money, so of course Jubilee are going to hold onto it for now. But they won't ever mine it; they will sell it for cash and a royalty to a mining company who knows how to do it properly.

If it is the licence, and it drops today, then I think we're looking at a rise in the hundreds of % - maybe 200%?

I don't know any more than is in the public domain. But, given AIM is as leaky as an old seive, I can see two possible reasons for today's sudden rise:
1. The Star Zinc licence has been granted. (I assume this will come before the announcement of the offtake with Jubilee, which I consider to be already negotiated and agreed). The timing is about right. And, if true, it would mean that the share price has a very long way to go yet.
2. Just possibly, it could be that the mining right for the long forgotten Glenover project has been granted. There's clearly a buyer for the phosphates at Glenover - Omnia, the MPP mentioned in the RNSs. So I'd expect this news to be followed rapidly by announcement of the asset's sale. That would also cause the mcap / share price to rocket higher.
If it's not one of those two things, I can't think what it is.

Hi Kalan!
Look on the NEX exchange. It's probably gone through there, instead of via AIM.
IMO, there is more going on with this share than appears on the surface.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-02-19/Palladium-hits-record-high-madness-continues-in-tight-market.html

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-02-19/Palladium-hits-record-high-madness-continues-in-tight-market.html

https://liberum.com/videos/sylvania-platinum/

Yes, I bought back at 23.5p and 24p.
As said, I'm not a big fan of management, but the mispricing here was too big to ignore.
I don't have too many. I put a firm limit on my exposure to Mali, and I also have Resolute (RSG) shares.
I'd suggest that 30p is only a few days away.

Hi Ragnar!
The Russians don't really have a strategic palladium reserve anymore. It's was mostly reallocated and since then it's been sold down by Norilsk Nickel - e.g. they released about 3 tons of it at the end of January. That basically saved the Nymex futures market from complete implosion on January 31st (options day).
What may "save" the market (at least for a couple of months) is the slowdown in Chinese automobile manufacturing due to the coronavirus. But emissions regulations (China 6, Europe 6, India) are getting ever tighter, and that means ever heavier loadings of palladium and rhodium in catalytic converters. And, no, there really isn't a substitute for these two metals, given present technology; not even platinum will do. And, no, there really is no new supply coming online before 2023. In fact, mine production is predicted to fall rather than rise in the near future. So it's a sellers market all the way.
P.S. Watch how nicking catalytic converters for their recycling value becomes a "thing" over the next couple of years. They're easy enough to remove, and they can be sold no questions asked to a scrap metal dealer.

Well, let's agree to disagree.
My own take on it is that the market quite frequently grossly overvalues garbage small cap companies.
And just occasionally the market ignores a good company until the undervaluation becomes quite absurd - which it was for SLP back in, say, December.
Even now SLP is very cheap, and I'll be holding on for a more "normal" share price. I'm actually being quite modest in my current target, which is a P/E of 8. Based on current H1 results that's just over a pound. That seems the least one can ask for for this low cost, high margin, well-run, debt free, cash-rich PGM producer.

Hi Shareminator!
60p is a P/E of about 4.8, based on H1 results. Why on earth do you consider this "fair value" for SLP?!?
Costs down, production up, dividend paid, share buyback in operation, PGM prices have exploded upwards since end of H1, company is debt free and has $33.6m in cash.
Each to their own, of course. But I'll admit I'm puzzled by your post.

This is finally beginning to move.
Still a long way to go to what I make to be fair value, though.
I get the feeling that one good RNS now would cause a major rerate.

Hi Nimrod!
EPS from just published interims, annualised (x2), and converted to sterling = 12.6p per share.
So, even a miserly P/E of 6 would equal about 75p per share.
And this calculation does not allow for:
1. The company is debt free and it has a $33m cash pile;
2. Rhodium and palladium prices have exploded higher since the end of H1 (December 31st), so the current quarter 's result should be absolutely amazing;
3. Company is well run - production up, costs down, reports openly, etc.;
and 4. Company has valuable development assets (Grasvally and Volspruit).
I'm thinking this rise still has a long way to go before it gets to fair value - without even considering a special dividend, as suggested by Liberum's broker note yesterday.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-02-18/Palladium-prices-up-8-on-the-day-looking-at-new-record-highs-on-deficit-concerns.html
This article is already out of date, by the way. Palladium now at $2,650/oz or so.
Platinum also up at around $1,000, getting a lift from gold prices closing above $1,600 for the first time in 7 years.