Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Sorry for your losses, but as soon as people do the basic maths here, this share price will rise.

For those curious, SLP update out.

So JLP need cash (again).
What's that got to do with SLP?!? Except that they are vaguely in the same line of business?
In the end, business is about making cash, and SLP make a lot of it.

Closed way higher in New York - 740p equivalent.
Agree - excellent value here.

Last financial year EBITDA was $30.2m, profit $18.2m and EPS 6.37 cents per share.
Last six months EBITDA is $36.6m (and PGM prices have increased since then as well). There isn't sufficient information yet to make a proper calculation, but surely EPS is going to at least double at this rate?
That would put this share on a pretty comical P/E of about 4, maybe...

Hi Green Fool!
50% is a lot in my book! Certainly, I can see a trade of buy at 23p, wait a few weeks / months, sell at a safe "low" 30p or so, and pocket a 30% or so gain.
IMO, that's not bad at all.
Still waiting for updated mine plan and guidance. Next week now, I guess. Poor PR management again.

EPS for H1 of 1.12 to 1.17 US cents per share - more than doubled from comparable period last year.
Call that about 1.75p EPS on an annualised basis, without accounting for the fact that the gold price has gone up recently and that PAF production should improve.

Excellent results for Q2. Production higher than I expected, though down on Q1, of course.
EBITDA for first two quarters ($19.2m +$17.4m) now higher than for the whole of last financial year ($30.2m). Cash balance (after paying provisional tax and dividend) now $33.8m. And this all reflects the period before palladium and rhodium prices soared over the New Year!

As an example of what COULD happen here, look at what happened to Katoro Gold (KAT) this afternoon - a 200% rise in a few hours.
If Star Zinc were announced all at once (licence and offtake), this would be a 2m mcap company announcing a $60m NPV project with almost no capex required. The share price would go ballistic.

Hi Rebess!
I do share some of your reservations about future news flow here.
What happens when the Q1 results are only, say, 105K ounces (in line with the 40:60 h1/h2 split), and the AISC is correspondingly high?
West African exploration an development seems to be in the slow lane. So where is the diversification and growth story going to come from? Even the promised 6 cent dividend doesn't arrive until the end of May.
All in all, I'm not entirely convinced by today's RNS and call. Too much depends on the price of gold remaining high.

The question I'm asking myself is cashflow.
They have heavy monthly payments to make for the new arrangements at Hernic/Inyoni, as well as bills to pay for the work at Sable/Kabwe.
It's very hard to judge accurately from the limited information the company gives out, but I'm thinking that a raise is more than possible.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not questioning the long term logic of buying Samancor out of the Hernic/Inyoni operation. But the money for it must be found from somewhere...

I just checked HUM's numbers again. Even using some pretty hostile assumptions (NPV 12%, assume 5 year Yanfolila mine life ONLY (no extensions), no value for Dugbe or Cora etc.,) this share really should be trading in the mid thirties.
If this share were a person it should be sectioned, it's so depressed.
I'm not invested here, but I will be looking closely at the guidance and updated mine plan. There really should be an uplift here if they meet expectations.

I think we can all agree that competition for the title "Worst CEO of AIM" is red hot. I mean, as far as I can see, major criminality is rife on AIM, and almost always goes unpunished.
(And we're making the head of the FCA the new head of the Bank of England - God help us all!).
Dan Betts should have been fired for falling for the Bunker Hill scam, of course. And replacing him with an experienced and trustworthy mining CEO would probably see the share price double in a few weeks. But I don't think Dan is even close to "Worst CEO on AIM."

I agree that this share is basically a gamble. But I think the odds are in our favour. I don't trust Colin, either. But he is shrewd and self-interested. As long as he can deliver the licence for Star Zinc, I think this will work out. And, since the mcap here is so low, the rewards for holders will be very good.
All my other investments are in profit-making companies. This is my only "punt"!

HI Kalan!
Yes, I also noticed the change in emphasis in JLP's communications.
I wonder - reading between the lines - if they are not having legal / licensing problems with the Kabwe dumps material. That would explain the delay of the vanadium circuit (as much as the vanadium price slump), and it would also explain the long silence from both JLP and BMR over the status of the Kabwe royalty.
Whatever. As regards GLR, the news is good. Q2 2020 forecast completion of the zinc circuit at Sable, and willingness to work with 3rd party ore suppliers (which I am sure is code for GLR / Star Zinc).
It seems to me that we are just waiting for the Star Zinc small scale mining license here, and then it will be all systems go. In the meantime, there is always hope that the Glenover mining licence will drop as well.

Hi Nimrod!
Re: Norilsk
Yes, I know it's not that much palladium metal in the grand scheme of things. But it's probably enough to avoid the futures market breaking down tomorrow - which is why I am sure Norilsk are publicising their action in advance.
The bigger picture is still: "There is no metal". I go along with the analyst in the article who is predicting $3,500 / oz later in the year. For estimated future rhodium prices, as a rule of thumb I simply multiply the estimated future palladium price by four.
FWIW, I once held a 10kg "etalon" bar of pure rhodium in my hands at Norilsk. I knew I should have made a run for it!

Ahead of palladium options settlement on Friday (which promises to be chaos):
https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-01-29/Palladium-to-remain-strong-despite-added-Nornickel-supply-analysts.html

Hi Jester!
Tom Winnifrith (Share Prophets) is normally proved right when he goes negative on an AIM company, and he has a lot of "scalps" to prove it (including Neil Woodford, of course).
He's made some pretty serious accusations against Vast, and he recommends shorting the stock. If I were invested here, that would make me think hard about the safety of my money.

My take on tomorrow is that it is the board's last (or almost last) chance to argue for Centamin's long term independence.
Thanks to the Endeavour bid, we know now that EMRA / the Egyptian authorities will not stand in the way of a takeover of Centamin, and that several of the major institutional shareholders are positively keen on a merger / takeover. Centamin's board were very lucky that Endeavour's offer was such a poor one; I'm convinced that if a less indebted miner had made a better offer it would have succeeded.
So the board really need to lay out a long term plan for the company which shows how they will increase shareholder value. Cowichan's list of promises previously made and not kept is pretty devastating. Given that history, the board are going to need to be very convincing this time.
If not, I expect a takeover / merger to come in the next six months or so.

Hi Kalan!
For myself, I'm mostly keeping money in cash for the next few days (I luckily sold 2/3 of my portfolio last week).
CEY is tempting at the current price - it really should trade up to 150p unless POG tanks or there are production problems, and there is a nice 5p dividend to come as well. HOC and FRES I have less confidence in - it looks like this year will be a "down" year for HOC, and FRES still has a lot of capex to find for the new mine. I like CMCL and PAF as goldies as well. HUM is currently spectacularly cheap based on fundamentals, but do you trust Dan Betts? I'm still thinking about that.
Other than that, I'm out of JLP currently, and I'm in waiting mode on my small holding in GLR. It's been a long time since we've had any news from either company, which isn't making me feel comfortable. I'm a huge fan of SLP but I'll wait a few days to see if the price will drop back to 40p.
All in all, I'm expecting a fairly sharp 5-10% overall market correction this week. Not a crash, but a big dip.
None of this is advice - just my rambling on...