Member Info for TigerByTheTail

This is Reuters take on the new Egyptian mining law. It's a little light on detail, unfortunately:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/egypt-mining/update-1-egypt-issues-new-mining-law-regulations-cabinet-idUKL8N29K4DA
All told, I hope the good folks who sit on Centamin's board realise that they must now be an absolutely prime takeover target for other goldies. They offer:
1. $300m + in cash plus appealing free cash flow;
2. Tier 1 asset with long mine life and huge exploration potential upside (in the 160km2 Sukhari concession);
3. "First mover" advantage into the "new" mining jurisdiction of Egypt - the Arabian-Nubian shield is probably the world's last great unexplored frontier for gold;
4. Some attractive West African assets (whose value is not reflected in the current share price simply because the company hasn't reported much about them!)
So, if Centamin's BOD want to stay independent, they really need to take action now. Preferably, yesterday.

Hi Bobliz!
Thanks for the explanation.
I've never traded CFDs, and I don't think ever will. They negate the biggest advantage we have as PIs - that is, time. If we are trading our own money (unleveraged) we can choose when to buy and when to sell and when to simply wait things out. IMO, this freedom to choose makes a huge difference to our odds of long term success.
BTW, if anybody is feeling utterly and financially-suicidally reckless, one of the all-time great short squeezes is currently underway at TSLA (Tesla). How high it will rocket before it inevitably tumbles back to earth is almost anybody's guess...

Platinum just broke back into four figures. Palladium and rhodium going strong as well.
SLP must be making money hand over fist at these prices.

And a good deal it is for Resolute, too. Guidance this year is now 420K ounces at c. $900 per ounce AISC (+ whatever they get from Ravenswood before the sale completes). Given normal operations and the current gold price, that should leave RSG is a very strong position in a years' time.
This share is about 8.5% shorted in Australia - and heavily deramped on Hot Copper as well.
I'd expect the shorts to close over the next few weeks, now it's clear there won't be a capital raise, so there should be a good rise to come.

Yes, a good set of results. It's noticeable that the credit markets are happy to refinance HOC's loans on very favourable terms, so they obviously think the company is sound.
All told, I can't understand why we are trading at these levels given the current gold and silver price and the company's fundamentals. Is it linked to instability in Argentina (San Jose mine)? Or due to the rare earth purchase (which I think is a good one, but which the market apparently doesn't)? Or is it due to a slight decrease in guidance and an increase in costs? Or is it simply due to a persistent seller unloading a large position?
Any road, I make HOC to be underpriced and due to correct back to a fairer valuation. I'm looking forward to it.

Well, I'm happy I've had a chance to do some serious accumulation today at these bargain basement levels. According to today's RNS, Centamin's cash position increased by $60m in the last quarter to approx $350m, whilst guidance for this year is reconfirmed at 510-540k ounces. Consequently, I make it that the share price is a full 20p below "par", not counting in the coming dividend.
As long as the gold price doesn't tank, the next few weeks should be good here.

Anybody shorting Centamin from 111p down deserves to lose money.
That's just dumb with gold at $1540 +.

Hi Punter!
Some of the Cora explorationtargets ARE within trucking distance of Yanfolila - Telegododou (spelling?), for instance.
But Cora's main play is about 75km (check?) away from Yanfolila. That doesn't work for trucking lowish grade oxide ore. Don't Cora plan to start up operations there with a simple heap leach plant on site?
(Forgiveness asked for any inaccuracies in this post - all from distant memory).

Hi Punter!
I like the Cora project. But there are plenty of West African projects on sale out there when you start to look around. It's a real buyers' market - you're spoilt for choice.
Perhaps something not in Mali, but in a safer jurisdiction like Cote d'Ivoire, for the sake of diversification? (Bur definitely not in Burkino Faso).

Hi Rebess!
I do see some hopeful signs in today's RNS from Centamin - e.g. the stress on new top management, the emphasis on cash generation ($60m in Q4 2019) and on cost control, the ambition to find new gold in the full 160km2 concession at Sukhari, the mention of West African resource (including Burkino Faso!), and their apparent openness to acquisitions / mergers.
The board must know they have just dodged a bullet. If they don't change their ways, next time they won't be so lucky.

Hi Abagnale!
IMO Dugbe's a turkey - even if $70m has been poured into it over the years.
Massive capex required, totally corrupt country, hilly tropical jungle with no roads, no trained work force, no power source, risk of Ebola, possible resumption of civil war, incredibly hard rock to grind up with low grade gold content, no high grade "starter" zone etc. etc. IMO, you should look past the 4.2m ounce headline resource figure and consider these factors.
There are lots of good gold development projects on sale in West Africa at the moment - many of them far better prospects economically than Dugbe. That's why Hummingbird couldn't find a buyer willing to pay money for Dugbe, and are now willing to accept a no money upfront farm-in style of deal.
IMO, Hummingbird should concentrate on Yanfolila for now. Especially to extend its mine life (Gonka etc.). Then, when the time is ripe, it could buy into one of the far better mine projects out there currently on sale.

Hi RazorsEdge!
Pretty much, yes. Endeavor released their RNS at 11.00.
Drop at 11.25 was presumably the ripping of a series of stop losses as the fast money got out. Unfortunately, I missed it.
(Happy to buy at 120p, but I would have been happier with 115p!)

No tears for Endeavor and their lowball offer.
CEY RNS is quite clear that mergers / acquisitions are still on the table. I wonder if they are talking to somebody else right now.
Dividend is welcome, as always.
All told, I see 150p here in the course of the next six months based on improved guidance, decent results, the dividend, and a persistently high gold price. That's good enough for me to add at these levels.

Hi Golden Bull!
And I thought I was being fairly positive about today's RNS!!!
Yes, production at Yanfolila has improved, Yes, the gold price has improved. Yes, the overall financial position has improved, even if the company still doesn't report in as much detail as we would all like.
And, yes, Dugbe will be NOT Hummingbird's problem if the ARX deal goes through. It's a pretty worthless "asset" (whilst also being a considerable expense), so that's a good thing, isn't it?

Just dropping by for old time's sake.
Actually, the Dugbe deal isn't nearly as bad as the Bunker Hill disaster, for which Dan Betts should have been sacked, regardless of who ARX are.
Hummingbird are committing no new cash to the development of Dugbe - that's ARX's problem. Hummingbird are simply handing over the "asset" for a decent number of ARX shares with some anti-dilution protection. Since Dugbe will be an expensive nightmare to develop (utterly corrupt Liberia, hilly jungle, Ebola, very high mining costs (low grade, very hard rock) etc.), isn't it for the best that it will no longer be Hummingbird's direct problem? Isn't it good that Hummingbird is now concentrating on Yanfolila?
Otherwise, quarterly shows substantial improvement. Not enough for me to put my money in here, but still there are signs that this company is turning around.

My take on it is that Branson just wanted Flybe's slots at Heathrow and elsewhere, and the rest of the deal was just for show and to be discarded when the time was right..
Stobart weren't clever enough to really that they were being used.

Hi Dasul!
A bad rainy season comes with the territory in West Africa. I've invested a fair amount in West African goldies, and I've lived through impassable laterite haulage roads, flooded open pits, pit wall collapses, and washed out bridges. Endeavor seem to be a fairly well-run outfit, so they should have had a large pile of ore sitting on the milling pad before the rainy season commences.
Rather, it's the decaying security situation in Burkino Faso that makes me worry for them. The government barely controls the main roads and the provincial towns. Kidnapping and banditry are becoming a lucrative business, and we've already had one massacre of mine workers...
It's not in my hands, but I'd be happy if Centamin stay independent. I think before the year is out we might well all be grateful to have a debt-free cash-rich unhedged goldie in which to put our money.

HI Dansul!
I don't think the situation at Endeavor is terminally bad.
Given a fair wind, a decent gold price, and (above all else) a reasonable security situation in Burkino Faso, Endeavor will generate substantial free cash flows over the next couple of years and manage to pay down their debts. If they can do that, the future will look bright for them.
But, yes, it's a puzzle to me why Mr. Sawiris didn't buy into Centamin directly, rather than support this clumsy and unlikely merger proposal. I would have thought that he could have amassed a reasonable position at the recent lows, and then lobbied for a seat on the board, etc.

As regards Branson and Stobart, it's karma at work. They deserve to lose their money and reputations for their disgraceful actions a year ago. I sincerely hope Branson doesn't get to walk away with the valuable slots.
I'm sorry for the employees and their families, though.

Honestly, this is karma at work.
Stobart (and Branson) played the dirtiest of games to get hold of Flybe for a song. Now it's come back to bite them. I'm sorry to those caught up as "collateral damage", but if you sleep with dogs you should expect fleas...