Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Auson!
I can't imagine that Woodford's meltdown will have much influence on the Centamin share price. He was barely investing at all in natural resources, wasn't he, let alone gold? And I don't think his funds were big enough to set off a market-wide domino effect.
I've got no sympathy for Woodford and I've got no idea how he could have been so irresponsible and just plain stupid. But, that said, the shrinkage you point out includes redemptions. I think actual investor losses are estimated to be around 33%.

Slight increase in short interest on ShortTracker.
Like everybody else, I'm searching for the bottom here. It's got to be close...

I like the optimism, but isn't this Metro a different Metro from our Metro Bank???
Just sayin'....

So, I read the affadavit carefully - the relevant parts twice.
My conclusion? As regards Sylvania, I just can't see that there is anything to be concerned about. It's not only ancient history, but the facts laid out in the affadavit actually prove very little.
Therefore, IMO, this is a buying opportunity.
(Please DYOR!)

Take a look at the SLP page on the ADVFN bulletin board.
I believe (without actual proof) that the sell-off is due to the Samancor/union court case currently ongoing in South Africa. There are links to court documents on that bulletin board, which include allegations about how Sylvania originally obtained the rights to reprocess Samancor's tailings more than ten years ago.
I think the worry and the share price drop are overdone - but evidently not all agree with me!

Hi Mr Tibbles!
I'm steering clear of Centamin until we see the Q3 results. It's hard to believe (given what Centamin have leaked out) that they will make annual guidance now. But Centamin haven't officially downgraded the forecast yet, so the actual production warning (and consequent share price fall) is likely still to come. In short, in my opinion, poor management of news flow has created a "triple whammy" situation for shareholders - AGAIN.
The only saving grace here is the gold price, which will means that the bottom line profit will look good. But this really is no way to run anything, let alone a FTSE 250 company. No tears for Andrew Pardey, who was horribly over-promoted to the CEO role. But his departure (which may take up to a year) solves nothing in itself. Who and what comes next?

Yep, the algos are certainly hard at work today!
But the bottom line is that the shorts here are painting themselves into a corner. They need selling volume to exit their short positions at a profit, and - unless there is some really bad news to come - it's hard to see where that volume is coming from.
Personally, I don't see any chance that Metro Bank is going bust.
I also think Metro Bank (1.7m happy customers etc.) is a very attractive takeover target for any player looking to get into the UK market (Goldman - Marcus?).
Judging by the bond prospectus, and assuming September was no worse than July and August, the quarterlies should be OK to good.
And I don't believe that the FCA will fine Metro Bank more than a few million quid for the accounting error. The very last thing they want to do is to threaten Metro's viability. (Instead, the FCA will probably make scapegoats out of a couple of conveniently-placed individuals and punish them hard; that's the way of the world).
So I see the shorters as being in a very difficult position here. They've gone in way too deep, and the sheer volume of open short positions will now work against them.

Hi Caterham!
I have some money already invested here, but yes, I too, have a decent sized amount in cash waiting for the right moment. How much I finally invest depends on the actual news flow and milestones achieved. In the right circumstances it might be quite a lot; IMO this could be a real opportunity.
Overall, I find holding a decent amount of cash to be one of my most lucrative "investments". Just occasionally the stock market gets things wildly wrong, particularly with small caps - e.g. Bacanora trading at 12p earlier this year. Holding cash gives you the chance to take full advantage of any such mispricings which present themselves.
p.s. IMO, Vast is NOT (repeat NOT in mile high capital letters) such an opportunity!!!

Hi Caterham and Minor Miner!
The zinc mineral that Jubilee will be processing at Sable is willemite, a zinc silicate. The process seemingly will be sulphuric acid leaching, possibly done at pressure and temperature. End product will be either zinc metal (as cathode from electro-winning) or (a presumably lower value) zinc concentrate.
I don't know to what extent mixing in high grade willemite (from Star Zinc) improves the recoveries from the Kabwe dumps material, which is basically lower grade willemite. I don't understand if the driver to do this is technological or simply economic.
Here are some ways that Galileo COULD avoid placing to get enough working capital to start mining Star Zinc:
a. Jubilee agree to finance Galileo, via a pre-funded offtake agreement;
b. Galileo manage to obtain a loan from a Zambian bank;
c. Galileo offer a % of Star Zinc to a contract miner, in return for them funding operations to break-even. (Colin has form with this kind of deal; this is how XTR are working in Namibia);
d. Galileo raise money by selling all or part of Glenover.
I can't think that Colin Bird will be keen on raising much equity at the current derisory market cap when he owns a big chunk of the company himself.
It's all a bit of a Catch22 situation: this company SHOULD have a market cap right now of let's say 10m, so raising 1m in equity to get into production shouldn't be all that painful. But it doesn't, so raising that much equity could theoretically be pretty painful to current shareholders. So even though it's "obvious" that the company should be worth a lot more, nobody will invest, so the market cap stays the same. I don't yet know how this circle gets broken - but somehow it will be.

This isn't a Centamin specific post, but it's something that any investor in mining companies should know and always remember...
https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-10-08/Nineteen-percent-of-mines-are-corporate-disasters.html

Market cap now less than $2m!
It certainly doesn't take much to move the needle with this share. A couple of decent sells over the last two days and we're down more than 10%.
Heck, if I put 60,000 quid into this company I'd have to file a TR-1 as a major shareholder. And yet I still think this company has real potential...

Hi FTB!
To be honest, I can't see what all the excitement is about, re: Vast.
Worried all the hope and hype will turn into a massive disappointment (as is usual with Vast), and that that disappointment will ricochet and hit the share price here as well.

Just read the Times article...
Not an SXX holder, but I have to agree that Chris Fraser has completely lost the plot.
If he is now blaming bulletin boards (i.e. his investors) for his own failures he needs to be replaced as soon as possible. It's completely inappropriate behaviour for a CEO - he's obviously having some kind of meltdown.

Yep, the selling that forced the share price down on Friday (up to the last hour) was clearly largely shorts increasing. The whole day's trading was essentially a headfake designed to panic retail investors into selling.
In the end the shorters got very little bang for their buck, and the new money they have thrown at this share is already underwater. IMO, it's simply not cost effective to go on with these tactics. The first shorter to buy back in most likely locks in a decent profit (considering the price at which the shorters began shorting). The last one out may have to wear a pretty heavy loss.

"The World Gold Council said world central banks in August purchased 62.1 tons of gold and sold 4.8 tons. That’s way up from central banks buying a net total of 12.8 tons in July."

My guess is that the rise is due to news incoming about the Thorny River / Marsfontein project (since we really should call it that now).
But I don't have any inside info to offer.

A flurry of trades straight out of the gate this morning - and all buys too, IMO (despite the fact that a few trades are printed in red).
I wonder what's up.

I see some people on here are still thinking the shorters will act in unison and hold the share price down again next week.
IMO, the problem for the shorters is that they can't trust one another. One of them will "betray" the others by buying back in.
And the first one to make a run for the door is likely to make the most money / lose the least.
I think it's pretty obvious now that multiple buyers are circling Metro. My own opinion is that Vernon Hill only went public with his own interest in a buy-out to try and delay a rival bid.

Who?

I am flummoxed. Positively perplexed. Discombobulated, even.
What is the market seeing that I am not?
I see gold at $1,500 and silver at $17.50 and yet HOC's share price has collapsed. WTF?!?