Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Yes, it looks like the market believes a placing is imminent. Is it right? Is it wrong? Tune in next week to find out, I suppose.
I'm thinking if there is a placing in the works, it will only be a baby one, to pay a few corporate bills.

Yuri, we get it. You're short or spreadbetting against Metro. And you're a bit nervous about losing a lot of money, so you fill this board up with negative posts, hoping that that will make all the difference. Trust me, it won't. And if I were you, I'd be closing my position before the end of today. A lot can happen over the weekend, and some of it could be very expensive for you.

Full ticker FRA:ZMK, if anybody is curious about the Frankfurt listing.
I wonder what is behind this move. But anything that brings in new investors and gets us out of this malaise is welcome.

Hi Kalan!
Puzzled by the negativity on the possible sales of other parts of Galileo.
Ferber, yes, God knows who would buy it.
But we know that Omnia have spent 300K doing test work on the phosphates in the Glenover dumps for their new fertilizer plant near Pretoria, and that the tests were successful. If and when the mining licence for Glenover is finally issued, then I'd expect some kind of offtake agreement / sale agreement to be finalized pretty quickly. To my mind the problem is when the Glenover mining license is issued. We're told that it's close, but government bureaucrats can make sloths look speedy.

I'm pretty shocked by this share price drop on this news, to be honest.
I know a little about rare earths, and this deposit looks to be a very viable proposition. Yes, it's something of a change of direction for HOC, but who cares if there is money to be made? This is easy mining and easy processing in a safe jurisdiction.
One thing is certain, demand for permanent magnet rare earths (Nd, Pr etc) is only going up. They're not used just in cars, but in wind turbines (a tonne at a time), and in pretty much anything that requires a high efficiency electric motor.
Anyway, I'm seeing this as an opportunity. Gold at $1500, silver above $17.50, and HOC at only 184p - that must be a buy!
(All IMO and DYOR, of course).

Hi Ivans!
No, Colin won't dilute Galileo shareholders by that much. Not even close - even in the very worst case. And there may be no dilution at all - remember Colin owns a big chunk of Galileo himself.
But, yes, Jubilee is a lower risk share than Galileo - which is a very high risk high return proposition. Given its current tiny mcap and its assets, it could literally quadruple in price in a day. Or not.
As ever, DYOR and all IMHO.

HI Mr Tibbs!
My take is that there will never be a better moment than now to launch a takeover bid. The share price is down even though the gold price is up, the CEO is leaving (presumably after encouragement from unhappy major shareholders), the Chairman has sold his shares and is due to leave as well, and investor relations in general are a horrible mess (e.g. what HAS happened to Burkino Faso?)
So , IMO, it's now or never. If a takeover hasn't happened by Christmas, I'll assume that either the court case or the complexities of the production sharing agreement mean that one will never happen. And I'll shut up about it for good.
But for the next few weeks I'll be wondering...

Hi Moneyhawk!
This is a good deal for Jubilee. They get a few years of high grade zinc ore from Star Zinc to process, from which I estimate they should make about $5m per year in EXTRA earnings (if producing zinc cathode - rather less if producing zinc concentrate).
During that time Galileo should finish the exploration and development of Kash'itu, and as Star Zinc runs down they should replace it with (the probably more lucrative) vanadium rich high grade zinc ore from Kash'itu. There is potentially so much ore at Kash'itu that it gives the zinc / vanadium operations at Sable an almost indefinite lifespan - it will still be going long after the material from the Kabwe dumps has finished.
You can argue that Jubilee should have kept Star Zinc and Kash'itu for themselves. But clearly Leon doesn't want to get involved in mining in any way. Doing things this way means a decent supplementary earnings stream for Sable / Jubilee without taking on any mining risk.
(You can also see why, when Leon passed on mining Star Zinc and Kash'itu, Colin Bird grabbed the opportunity for a company in which he owns a 13% interest. It was simply too good to miss!)

Hi Kalan!
Even in the very worst case I can't see the number of shares in issue doubling.
Mcap now 2.5m. Need for finance probably about 1m. Even at today's share price (with usual placing discount) that only makes a worst case of 50% more shares in issue.
And there are lots of ways it could end up being much better than that. If Glenover sells, or a bank stumps up a loan, both of which are possible, it could be no dilution at all.
My own solution to this conundrum is to hold a reasonable number of shares now, but to hold at least the same amount of money in cash to buy in at the appropriate moment.

Hi MinorMiner!
That puzzling thought occurred to me as well.
Perhaps not a full-sized placing for working capital to start up mine ops, but a baby one just to cover corporate expenses? (Even though the company has already raised back in April and should have enough money to cover everyday expenses until next April.)
If that is the case, it will be very very interesting to see if Colin Bird subscribes for a large number of shares. He already owns a big chunk of the company, and if he takes on more, then I'll take that as a huge vote of confidence in his own plans.
It may of course also be that the mining license for Glenover arrives soon. I'm half expecting that to act as the trigger for a sale of Glenover to Omnia. And that would mean Galileo was fully funded to production and more.
In short, Galileo is in a very strong position long term. But how this all plays out in the short term is as clear as muck.

Hi Rebess!
I agree that this malaise could drag on for some time. Even though the actual profit number will be quite good (thanks to the gold price), Centamin just looks such a mess.
Personally, I think the whole board needs a good clear-out. Why they need 10 (!) board members for a single mine operation is completely beyond me.
Anyway, if anybody was thinking of a takeover, now Centamin is leaderless would be the moment to strike. Not only would a buyer get a world class mine with an amazing ore body, but they would also get first mover advantage in Egypt, and the discoveries in Cote di"Ivoire and Burkino Faso to boot. I wonder if Barrick or Endeavor are prepared to overlook the court case and launch a bid. Hmm...

Hi Dshox!
It might be worth your time looking through the JORC report (published in August). You'll see the minimum 14% grade isn't rally difficult to achieve at all.
Colin Bird has been pretty open that funding needs to be found for the start of operations - I'd reckon around a million quid. Could be a sale of Ferber or Glenover, it could be a loan from a friendly local bank, it could be via an equity raise - take your pick.

Hi Jonah!
I just replied to Moneyhawk's post on the JLP board - have a look there.
Sable can produce either a zinc concentrate or zinc cathode (via the electrowinning circuit). This is basically JLP's business and problem - either they do less work for less money and produce a concentrate or they provide a more finished product and earn more.
I'd guess this question has a very limited impact on Galileo's projected numbers.

Hi Moneyhawk!
You might find it worthwhile going back to the Star Zinc JORC. A grade of 14% doesn't throw any spanners in the works - it's a strange deposit, with one clearly defined zone of very high grade zinc bearing mineral (willemite), surrounded by a halo of MUCH lower grades. In fact, most of the ore will come straight out of the ground at a higher grade than 14%. The stripping ratio is only 1:1 as well.
Also, it's 60,000 tonnes per year, so about 8 years mine life.
Also, 60,000 tonnes x 14% zinc minimum x $2,500 per tonne (rough medium term average zinc price) = $21m raw income per year to be shared between Galileo and Jubilee.
Given GLR's costs will be very low (Colin has quoted $2m per year for the contract mining and trucking operation), this should lead to about $10m (???) in earnings per year at project level (GLR own 95%, the Zambian government 5%).
Not bad for a company with a mcap of 2.5m pounds!
(And, yes, funding for starting this will need to be found from somewhere. Mostly for working capital. I'm reckoning around 1m pounds. But even in the worst case (an equity raise at current share price) it is still a pretty appealing prospect.)
Kash'itu (which is next door to the old Kabwe mine) is a longer term exploration prospect, but it offers Jubilee the opportunity to operate Sable as a zinc refinery effectively indefinitely. The ore composition (willemite zinc / vanadium) is very similar to the material in the Kabwe dumps.

Star Zinc needs a "small scale mining license" - similar to one required for a quarry. It's a former open pit mine in the middle of nowhere which won't be using any harmful chemicals or even tapping the local water supply. All in all, environmental impacts will be minimal. It's just a dig it up, grind it down, and ship it out operation. Furthermore, Colin Bird has excellent contacts with the Zambian government and this project will mean lots of new jobs in an area where unemployment is high.
All in all, I believe we should be looking at about 3 months for the granting of the licence from application. I'm always a bit wary of anything involving government bureaucrats, but I just can't see why there should be any problems with granting it.
The offtake agreement is clearly agreed in principle, and given Colin Bird is Chairman of Jubilee, I'd be amazed if it wasn't finalized in due course.
As another poster noted, I can't see why this company doesn't have a market cap of 10m quid right now, rather than a quarter of that. It seems a bit crazy.

Hi Herbie!
VAST isn't a goldie - they sold their one and only mine for a song. Personally, I'd describe the company as scam. Typical AIM pump and dump confetti machine garbage.
GGP is run by people I wouldn't trust as far as I could throw them.
I can't comment on the others.
A more serious list of London goldies / precious metal miners might start with HOC, RSG, FRES, POLY, HGM, PAF, SHG and CMCL.
IMO, it's also worth looking at Canadian listed goldies - Endeavor is a favourite of mine.
Centamin will come back (or get taken over). But today isn't a good day. I don't suppose Andrew Pardey is going entirely voluntarily; I sense that some major shareholders may have exerted pressure.

My opening price prediction is actually quite low - I think the shorters will throw a bit more money at the opening auction to try and limit the damage and to keep the share price under some kind of control.
IMO, the rise will be slower than many here are hoping. But it will come. It more or less must come now.

Today's RNS is what I would call a "soft and fuzzy" profit warning - but IMO it will become a proper one in time.
I hope I'm wrong but I'm afraid this may be a difficult day for shareholders. (I'm out out the moment).
Can I thank Dasut and some other posters for their analysis of Centamin's mining problems over the last few months? It has been really useful.

PDL = Petra Diamonds
Very bombed out diamond producer - mcap now only 67m or so. (In general, the diamond market is not doing too well).
I'll research it tomorrow.

Yes, today's bond issue is the kind of play you make when you have a potential buyer, and you want to negotiate from a position of strength and not one of weakness.