Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Rosewall!
I agree with you.
BTW, it's interesting to look through Toobs posting history - 100% on JLP over 2 years and spreading various kinds of muck. A couple of posts are/were possibly libellous. No evidence that he has previously predicted a placing, either; so that was a lie.
I couldn't tell you if he is trying to talk the SP down to buy in or if he is just an idiot wth a grudge. Either way, I just wasted five minutes of my life on him!

Hi All!
I have a question for the board and I'm hoping somebody has already researched the answer.
Does anybody know the approximate value of Galileo's 34% share of the phosphates in the dumps at Glenover? (That is, without counting in the phosphate still to be mined, just the dumps. And also without counting in the rare earth ore value). Can you also make it clear if the value is before transport and processing costs or after them.
If it comes to a sale to Omnia, I'm wondering what kind of value we are looking at. Is it enough to fund Star Zinc to production, and also to start development of Kashi'tu?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-28/combat-china-pentagon-races-develop-rare-earth-mineral-plants-australia

Hi Candid!
Thanks for the highly informative post. I didn't know before that the anonymous "Major Fertilizer Producer" of the RNSs was Omnia. The seemingly unmotivated delays to the mooted offtake agreement now make sense; Omnia were waiting until their new Sosal plant was complete. Now we just need the mining licence and a viable logistical solution for the deal to complete.
I'm invested here for the sake of the Star Zinc project, but I see that Glenover has more value than I thought.

Hi Herbie!
I'd agree with you that Trump wants to blow a huge stock market bubble to ensure his re-election. But remember that in the (much bigger) bond market lies the truth, and not in the stock market. Bond yields are crashing worldwide, and I think $19 trillion of debt worldwide now yields a negative return. Further ECM, Fed, and Chinese easing is expected, which would push up that figure even higher. In such an environment gold (which is nobody's liability and has no interest rate) is very attractive to own.
And that's without considering the dire state of the world we live in. Not least, it looks like we are reaching the end game in Hong Kong.
I only have two caveats to the above:
1) If Donald Trump successfully concluded a trade deal with China that would send gold reeling downwards for a few weeks.
2) If a no-deal Brexit can be avoided, the pound might shoot up by 10% in response. That would adversely affect the shares (quoted in sterling) of a dollar-earning company like Centamin.
As for Boris (Al), I have no words. I'm just sickened that my country has sunk to this. I'm a natural supporter of the Raving Monster Loony Party, and I always wanted to run for parliament as Fishy Lord Otterly. Now I may have to do something politically radical like join the LibDems, even though they would bore me to death...

I've read somewhere that the "automatic" element of FTSE 100 promotion (i.e. tracker funds needing to buy shares) is usually worth 5-10% on the share price in the 2-3 months after promotion. Sorry, I can't recall the source.
Add that to all the other factors supporting the gold price and suppressing sterling, and this is an appealing share to own right now.

Phosphates, by the way, are my big very long term investment tip.
The amount of arable land available for farming worldwide is decreasing quite rapidly due to urbanisation, soil depletion, rising sea levels and global heating. The land that is left is overworked and needs heavy doses of fertilizers to maintain yields. Nitrates can be synthesized, potash is fairly common, but there just aren't that many sources of phosphates around with a decent grade (and most of those are in Morocco, which is problematic). Over the next 20-30 years phosphates will become an absolutely necessary product in very short supply.
So I don't have any doubt that someday Glenover will be worth a lot of money to somebody someday. The question is when, and to whom. Hopefully, we'll find out something soon!

I'm quite sure Glenover is up for sale - Colin Bird has said as much in an interview. And the stockpiles of already mined phosphates and rare earth must have commercial value. The grades of both are very respectable.
As always with illiquid assets like this, the question is, can you find a buyer? If yes, then we could be in for a very nice surprise which would make our current market cap look truly ridiculous.

I can actually see what the shorters were thinking. Fresnillo's interims weren't good, so they went big and tried to crash the share price down to about 550p. This would have meant Fresnillo being removed from the FTSE 100 on September 3rd, which in turn would have meant a lot of funds being forced to sell their shares, thus giving the shorters the liquidity they needed to exit their positions. They must have thought themselves very clever at the time.
But it's all gone horribly wrong. Now the only question is how can they extract themselves from what is going to be an epic short squeeze.
Given that there are so many shorts on this stock, the share price could go far higher far quicker than seems reasonable or even possible.

Hi CristalBall!
I have to agree with you. This situation is crazy.
In a way, I suppose you could say that it reflects badly on management and their PR efforts. But market inefficiency must also be a factor - AIM is notorious for it.

Hi Supercharger!
I know Boris (or should I say Al) - really quite well.
You are 100% wrong about him. Boris has never met anybody he has not let down, or who he would let down in a flash if it was advantageous to him. He is a monstrously entitled and occasionally charming narcissist, totally unfit to be in any position of power over people. The uneducated think him intelligent, but there is actually very little behind his redundant sesquipedalian vocabulary (see, I can do it too).
As for his behaviour towards women, in old-fashioned terms he is the worst kind of cad and bounder...

There's no problem with Tjate, as such. It is the last piece of unmined prime platinum reef - a hugely valuable asset in the right circumstances. (Jubilee own 63% of it).
But developing a deep mine and putting it into operation is an extremely expensive business. It needs a sustained period of high platinum group metals prices to make it attractive. That will happen, sooner or later. But later may be in quite a few years' time.
For now, Tjate just lies as an illiquid asset on Jubilee's books. Someday it will surprise us.

Hi MikG!
Perhaps you're right that the risk isn't all that high, and that there is an easy 15% to be made here.
To be honest, I'm just so revolted by MNG's antics that I don't want to touch this POS. A lot of good people have been cheated out of money here. This was one heck of a scam.

I'm not sure yet, but I think we maybe off on our short squeeze rocket trip to the moon.
GIven the disposition of the forces here, I'm hoping this will hit 1,000 within a few weeks as the shorts are forced to close out.

Poly in line for automatic promotion to FTSE 100. See this:
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php
This should provide a nice boost to the share price as FTSE 100 ETFs and such like funds buy in.
And yes, it does look bad for Marks and Sparks...

Rhodium currently $4,200 per ounce.
Or, approx one ounce of rhodium will now buy five of platinum. I'm wondering if Jubilee should rebrand as a palladium and rhodium producer, and start classing the platinum as a by-product.
Overall, Jubilee's basket price must be at or very near a recent high.

Hi BaggyTrousers!
From last RNS:
Honourable Binton Kutsaira, Minister of Natural Resources, Energy and Mining for Malawi, said "I am overwhelmed with the progress being made by Mkango Resources at the Songwe Hill Rare Earths exploration project in Phalombe District. I commend Mkango for being exemplary in the field of Corporate Social Responsibility and for being transparent with all stakeholders regarding its operations, as it continues to fast track its Rare Earth mineral exploration and bankable feasibility studies. The advancement of the Songwe Hill project offers real hope to the nation of Malawi that it will have a producing rare earths mine in the near future. The government of Malawi is 100% committed to supporting investors in the mining sector such as Mkango Resources Limited, as mining is a priority on the government's agenda of transforming the economy of the Malawi."
Malawi is perfectly safe - especially if you're comparing it to Burundi, which teeters on the edge of genocidal violence.

Other factors:
1. Fresnillo isn't likely to drop out of the FTSE 100 in the next rebalancing (3rd September). It's in 94th position with its share price at 665p, so it looks safe. See this:
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php
(Note: fellow PM miner POLY will almost certainly be promoted, and should benefit as some funds automatically buy its shares).
2. H1 2019 - average silver price $15.2 per ounce (from interims). Current silver spot price $18.2 per ounce. If sustained over the next six months (or even improved on), this will make a huge difference in Fresnillo's free cash flows.

Hi Beevorma!
No, I got out of Rainbow months ago - though not when it was still 10p, more like when it was 5p. I missed the recent spike completely. In recent days I've been taking another look at it, but luckily I didn't buy.
I'm bullish about rare earths stocks in general. But Rainbow just don't seem to be able to overcome their perpetual production problems, especially regarding the stripping of the narrow rare earth veins. I'm guessing that local Burundian management is very weak, and that's why the old CEO Martin Eales has been forced out.
At least the new CEO seems to recognise that the value of the company isn't in the current negligible rare earth production, but as a long term exploration prospect. But that means lots of placings and lots of time, and also taking the huge political risk of Burundi, so I'm not interested.
In reality, Mkango is years and years ahead of Rainbow, and not behind it. And Malawi is infinitely more stable as well.

Now well below the warrant exercise price, so hopefully the selling will stop. I'll add when I'm confident the price has made a bottom.
No idea what's behind the share price slump; we're now well below cash in hand value for the company. It's all getting a bit silly.
p.s. Rainbow just issued a pretty awful RNS.