Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Dasut!
I think the all-time high close for Centamin yesterday has triggered an institutional selling program today.
Normal service should be resumed shortly...

Q4 results probably 30th or 31st July, judging by previous experience.
Final results for FY 2019-2020 mid-August. Dividend should be announced with the final results.
Company has means (i.e. cash) to pay a huge divi if it so chooses.

Hi Visitor!
Since Tharisa is a play on both PGMs and chrome, it's worth noting that chrome prices are sharply down again:
www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3942406/Chrome/UG2-chrome-ore-price-cif-China-plunges-in-bid-to-spark-liquidity.html
In general, I agree it's a good company, but this might not be its best moment.
PGM only producer SLP's current quarter will be a mess due to shutdown, but the annual results should be very strong. I'm very positive about it, and think the share price could nearly double before the end of the year.
JLP, I agree, is not a quality operation. Perhaps I'm just fed up of their deliberately confusing RNSs, but for me it's a strong avoid.
(Sorry for going off topic on this board!)

Spot palladium touching $2,100 now.
Platinum also up a bit.

Hi Miagi!
No, not now. I have held Shanta in the past and done very well with it. Same with PAF and CMCL and HGM.
Currently, I believe HUM and possibly TSG have the best "legs" for the race upwards.
Also holding CEY and POLY, but they are rather different beasts.

Hnaco'ck talked about Synairgen in the Commons yesterday. Expect full government backing - fast track approvals, funding, the works. This is the drug that saves the NHS this winter - any vaccine will come too late.

Hi Retired Banker!
I wouldn't say Centamin, for instance, is overpriced. It's trading on a "forward P/E" of about 11 if they hit production guidance and target AISC this year. That's not high for a debt free cash rich unhedged dividend paying gold miner with a world class resource.
IMO, most gold miners are STILL underpriced compared to the wider stock market, and especially Nasdaq (of course). It's just a question of degree.
I agree that SHG and HUM (especially) have big uplift potential, as well as TSG. I don't have the nerves for POG. Like you, I make SLP to be ridiculously cheap - no debts, huge cash pile, growing profits, forward P/E of about 3...

HI Miagi!
The Kenya asset that Barrick is divesting to Shanta is a high grade deposit but quite a small one. It doesn't fit with Barrick's strategy of only developing Tier 1 gold or copper deposits with long life spans. Barrick CEO Mark Bristow has been very clear that he will sell off everything that is surplus to their requirements.
IMO, the Kenya asset is a genuinely good prospect for a relatively small producer. And Kenya is a better jurisdiction that Tanzania as well (or at least, not as bad). I make it one of the better arguments for holding Shanta shares!

Palladium back through $2,000 again - $2,021 as I type.
Platinum also showing welcome signs of life - maybe catching a bid from gold.
Overall basket price not as good as Q1, but very healthy.

As regards Shanta, they've always had cheap production costs. But you need to balance that against the horrible hedges which are still rolling off and which have cost them a fortune in lost revenue. Also, never forget how President Magufeli of Tanzania bulldozed fellow gold miner Acacia into the ground - IMO sovereign risk there is very high. They'll certainly never see all the VAT refunds they claim they are owed.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Shanta isn't a decent buy. But it produces less than Hummingbird and its mcap is higher.
Which is a bit of a nonsense.

I just looked at Petra Diamonds for the first time in a while. Share price is now 1.6p, down 98% in a couple of years. Mcap is about 15m quid, or the value of one really fine stone. This is a company priced for bankruptcy.
BOD are simply lucky to be able to pick up this asset for this knockdown price!

Agree - this is a fantastic deal.
It can only really be explained by Petra being a distressed seller and very keen to offload any non-producing assets in their struggle to survive.
But for BOD, it really is Christmas come early...

My take on it is that the final results and the dividend announced with them (in August) will really shake things up, and cause a rerate.
(IMO, the Q4 results due soon won't do it. They will come out about break-even; which isn't bad at all, considering that a full month of production was lost, and then the plants had to be ramped back up. But the market will simply shrug its collective shoulders at them.)
I can understand new investors not believing this company's numbers at first sight. Frankly, they are incredible - debt free, cash pile of c. 30% of market cap, EPS of over a third of its current share price, etc...
I'm hoping audited numbers convince them that they are not just seeing things!

Hi Quady!
No, Solgold are potentially giving up far more than that to Franco Nevada - it's a 1% perpetual royalty on the output of the mine.
That equals a far higher percentage of Solgold's potential profits from Alpala. (SOLG own only 85% of the mine, allow for 25% profit margin after tax(???), allow for amortisation of cost of build etc. etc.) A 1% royalty can actually amount to a substantial chunk of the mine's eventual profits.
Franco Nevada deals are always brilliant - for Franco Nevada and their shareholders. Not so much for their clients.
I'm sure any major interested in Alpala will want to forestall the signing of the FN deal. They can raise the money for the mine build at a low interest rate just by issuing a bond.

Hi Miagi!
I agree with this - a major strike at Porvernir would indeed change everything. The share price would shoot up.
But major finds are, by definition, very rare events. They don't come along to order!

Not quite. Franco Nevada are willing to hand Solgold $100m to invest into Alpala on extremely onerous terms (see Cornerstone rebuttal of Solgold offer for details). There is only so much security Solgold can offer to potential off takers and financiers of Alpala - essentially, the unbuilt mine itself and its theoretical future cashflows. By taking the Franco Nevada money now Solgold are using up a fair chunk of that security, thus increasing the need for dilutive equity funding later on.
Potential buyers of Solgold will want to act as soon as possible to prevent the Franco Nevada deal going ahead. It's noticeable that Cornerstone made specific mention of stopping it in their press release yesterday.

Hi Colonel!
That amounts to saying, ah, it's ok because NM is only bluffing about the "go it alone mine" build so as to get the best possible price for shareholders from BHP or Newcrest.
If that turns out to be true, fair enough. And I do hope you're right.
But I look at him, and I fear he actually believes the nonsense he is spouting. If that's true, he needs to be replaced asap.

Hi Miagi!
I make 7.6% a major shareholder. It's enough to call an EGM, certainly. But I suppose it's all relative.
The share price is 22p. That's not a dip - it's close to the VWAP for the last year. That's how the market currently values this company - i.e. very lowly, considering that Cascabel is indeed a major copper-gold discovery.
Why? Because the market doesn't believe Nick Mather's "go it alone" story as to how he will get this find into production. I agree with the market. Frankly, he's peddling a load of baloney. There is only so much security to go around, so he will only be able to raise a limited amount of money via loans, royalty deals, off take deals and so forth. Borrowers will insist on a huge equity contribution to the cost of the mine build - I'd guess about 40% - to act as a buffer in the case of delays and overages. That equity won't be raised at the NPV value of the mine, of course, but using the share price at that time as a benchmark. That's how it always is. I wince at some of the fantastical tripe that Nick Mathers witters in interviews.
It is absolutely NOT in the best interests of existing shareholders for Solgold to try and "go it alone" with Alpala. Shareholders will be diluted into oblivion.
It IS in the interests of shareholders that Alpala is farmed-out or sold off, or that Solgold is taken over. Which, I'm fairly sure, it will be. And quite soon.

Hi Iceberg!
Firstly, Cornerstone are declaring that they own 7.6% of Solgold shares. So they are not selling - and haven't been for some time.
Yes, Newcrest and Cornerstone are very different companies of very different sizes. But as you yourself admit they already have a JV. In the current position it would be only natural that they co-operate / combine forces. Remember that Newcrest can easily supply the capital that Cornerstone require to maintain their 15% holding in ENSA (price for that to be worked out).
And yes, 15% of Ensa + 20% of 85% of Solgold is a complex position. And there will be one hell of a wrangle with BHP before the current mess is sorted out. Alpala could well end up as a Newcrest / BHP joint venture, or perhaps BHP will indeed buy out Newcrest (and Cornerstone).
As for silly games that get the CEOs the chop, what on earth was Nick Mather playing at with the restrictions on the last equity raise? Did he imagine that he wouldn't make enemies out of Newcrest and (probably) BHP?

HI Redknight!
I support your theory - I'd put the likelihood of you being right at 80%.
I.e. Newcrest and Cornerstone are in cahoots, and - in fact, not fantasy - they are in a very strong position, holding 15% of Alpala directly, and about 20% of the other 85% via Solgold. (I.e. roughly a third of the whole project).
I don't think the requisition for a "sack the board" EGM is a stupid move at all. Nick Mather has definitely managed to destroy relations with two major shareholders, and I don't find it likely that BHP or Blackrock are happy, either. It will put a lot of pressure on the current board to cut a deal.
We're in the end game now. There'll be a lot of pushing and shoving between BHP and Newcrest, but they will work out some agreement in the end that gets the mine built. Solgold shareholders will receive a decent pay-off, especially anybody who has invested at the average 20p price of the last year. But some expectations won't be met.