Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Jamie!
Two dates for me stand-out:
4th August = interims + dividend announcement
15th September = Egyptian licence news.
I make both as positives, but that's only IMO. Other than that, the SP will go up and down with the POG.

Hi Oska!
IMO, PAF are a very solid gold mining company with an excellent CEO. But, its share price has shot up recently (company restored paying a dividend), and I think it is now somewhat expensive, even considering the current price of gold.
Again, it's on my short-list to be watched for a buying opportunity. But right now it's too high for me.
(Maybe I'm just a cheapskate. Please DYOR).

Hi Rangar!
I'm not knocking Tharisa - it's on my shortlist of shares to be watched for a buying opportunity. If the chrome price turns around I will certainly look at it.
But I do place a country limit on South Africa, to control sovereign risk. And that means I'm effectively left with a choice of SLP or THS (or even PAF, another excellent company).
For now, it's SLP for me.

Hi Nimrod!
Thanks for posting that article. It's an interesting read.

I give up.
The groupthink on this board is unbelievable. And there are some pretty unpleasant and clueless people here as well.
I'll take my profit in due course, and that's all I care about.
To most of you - good luck. To a few of you - I hope you get what you deserve.

Hi Quady!
Solgold have no security to offer (except for the unbuilt mine itself) to lenders. Therefore, the amount of money they can borrow will be limited and the terms will be harsh. Also, they have no experience in mine construction and Ecuador is considered a high-risk frontier jurisdiction - so much the worse.
However you divide up that limited security up between off take finance, conventional loans, and royalty deals, there is only so much of it. So equity must be raised and used to create a buffer against potential loan losses. I'd think about 40% minimum in a case like this.
That's just how these things go.
Note how (in contrast) a major will be able to use their existing cash flows to raise 100% of the money required to build Alpala, and on far easier terms.
This is the root reason why Nick Mather's "strategy" (if to take it at face value, and not as an elaborate bluff) is financially illiterate and potentially ruinous for existing Solgold shareholders.

Hi Miagi!
Thanks for pointing that out. Obviously, a bidding war and a higher price would be better, but a quick 40p takeover will do nicely for me.
It's not my fault that Solgold's share price is in the gutter when compared to the potential value of Cascabel. This is what happens when the market loses faith in a company's management, and it doesn't believe it can successfully monetise an illiquid asset.

I'm surprised by the recent rise in the Tharisa share price. According to Metal Bulletin, chrome concentrate prices are still around $132 / ton, which implies that they are loss-making on the chrome side of their production. They should be making good money from the PGMs side of their production, and their open pit operations should be largely unaffected by Covid-19 restrictions, but still...
As for Sylvania Platinum, I'm just hoping the market grants it a P/E of 5 when the annual results come out. Even that lowly achievement would mean a big rerate!

I do hold Solgold shares, and they are nicely in profit, thank-you.
Honestly, I don't believe there will be an EGM as well. I think this will all get sorted out before we reach that point. IMO, announcing a possible EGM with a "sack the board" motion was just a play to point out to the current board how weak their position is, and to encourage them into making a deal.
I don't get why you are all so vindictive towards Cornerstone. They have a decent hand to play, and (IMO) so far they are playing their cards rather well. And if you want to insult their directors, well, much the same criticisms can be levelled at Solgold's directors, who are not an impressive mob.
The only bad outcome here is one which is as bad for Solgold shareholders as it is for Cornerstone shareholders. That is, Nick Mather really does try to go it alone to build Alpala, lacking either the financial power or the mining nous to make a success of it. Shareholders here are heavily diluted first in a big raise, the mine build almost inevitably gets delayed and goes over budget, shareholders then get wiped out by a second emergency equity raise, and finally (around 2026) a white knight (like BHP or Newcrest) comes in to "save" the failed project. Who on earth wants a future that looks like that?!?

Hi Addicknt!
Can I add that the last AFR article specifically said that BHP (as well as Newcrest) were upset with Solgold. The Australian Financial Review is a serious publication, so I imagine they must have had a source for that claim, even if it were off the record.
Also, Blackrock may wish to align with Newcrest and BHP. They are significant shareholders in both companies, and will value their relationship with them over their relationship with Solgold. Size matters.
There are no certainties here, but (given the maths) a "sack the board" motion at an EGM in late October has a fair chance of success - IF we haven't already seen a full takeover bid first (which I think we will).
CGP will have buyers if Solgold get taken over. They would become a highly attractive play for private equity, even if Solgold's buyer didn't take them out. And if Solgold doesn't find a buyer, well, it's very bad for both companies and their shareholders, so schadenfreude is ill-advised.
Obviously, from the point of view of us all making money, the best we can hope for is rival bids. I'm still not in the least interested in Nick Mather's unrealistic go-it-alone "strategy", and would vote against him at any EGM given even a vaguely viable alternative.

Hi Ash!
I've also substantially reduced my position here.
This second time around HUM has been good to me. I got in at 23p in February and rode the SP up to 29p, and then had the sense to sell before the "dash for cash" in March. Then I got back in at 20p and I've been here since. I had less money invested here than the first time around, so I think I'm still down overall - but not nearly by so much.
Why have I taken profit? Worries about Mali stability (see news), and always the fear that Dan Betts does something unexpected and crazy (probably unfair now, but once bitten twice shy). Also, concerns that AIM will be targeted for tax changes in the next budget (rumours abound), which would be bad for all AIM stocks, and fears of a wider stock market crash (it's overdue).
HUM could still rise a long way from here. I certainly hope it does.
But as JP Morgan replied when he was asked how he got rich, "I always sold too soon."

Hi Sher-Lock!
There is extra risk involved in Cornerstone, so it's natural that the company's share of Alpala is valued lower than Solgold's.
That said, I can see an argument for investing in Cornerstone as a higher-risk higher-return play. IMO, Cornerstone is a useful stepping stone for a major towards making a full bid for Solgold. And if a major DID bid for Solgold, and then attempt to leave Cornerstone "to wither on the vine", Cornerstone would become a highly attractive acquisition for private equity money, who could then "ride" on the back of that major's financial might and expertise and gain a 15% share of the profits from Alpala.
Ultimately, the risk in putting money in Cornerstone is the same as the risk here - that no major will make a bid for Alpala, and the mine project will be left to drift in the hands of Solgold's current management for years to come - management who won't be able to finance it and who lack the technical nous to build it.

I believe the decision to farm Dugbe out was a very good one for Hummingbird shareholders.
Why? Because there are big risks associated with the project. To name a few: difficult terrain (hilly jungle), very hard rock to grind up (and low grades), no power, no roads, no trained workforce, high Capex, high AISC, possible Ebola and other tropical diseases, possible resumption of civil war, arguably the world's most corrupt country.
Surely, it's better that Portofino now have to battle with all these problems, and not Hummingbird? It will probably cost them $25m or so to get the project to DFS stage, and there is no guarantee that a mine will ever be built at the end of it. Dugbe is now a "something for nothing" play for Hummingbird.
Above all else, Kouroussa is a much better project in all parameters for Hummingbird - size, grades, geology, jurisdiction etc. And there is no way that Hummingbird could have developed Kouroussa and Dugbe at the same time.

Hi Golden Bull!
Management have indeed been making much better decisions here of late. Both the acquisition of Kouroussa and the farm-out of Dugbe are excellent calls, IMO.
Of the mistakes of the past, I just wish they would dig a hole somewhere and bury them. They are miners, so they should be able to do that.
The political situation in Mali needs to be watched. No more than that, yet. But take a look at neighbouring Burkino Faso if you need an example of how things can go pear-shaped.
Important Note: Yanfolila is indeed in a safer part of Mali (which is a country bigger than France). There are other miners (eg RSG - Syama) who have a potentially more serious problem with insurgents.

Hi GoldenBull!
I can't agree that it was ever a smart idea to get involved with the mine that shall not be named. But, as long as no more company money gets spent on it, I'm happy.
On a separate "front", we do all need to keep an eye on the political news from Mali. Here's the latest:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/ecowas-hold-extraordinary-summit-mali-political-crisis-200727090938745.html
Remember the opposition contains a fair number of people who can fairly be described as resource nationalists...

Hi Crocked Skier!
No, no skeletons that I know about over at SLP. Company is simply highly profitable at current PGM basket prices, and rated very cheaply by the market. But, please, DYOR!
If you want to chat more about it, we should take it over to the SLP board on here.

I'm thinking that platinum (only) could go on a bull run, due to renewed interest in it as a monetary metal. It should at least catch up with gold, IMO.
In my scenario, palladium and rhodium (as industrial metals in shortage) would stay much the same, so the Pt-Pd ratio would come back to something more "normal".
If we're talking "green" of course, we need to mention platinum's role in hydrogen fuel cells. (See the hype around Nikola trucks, for instance.)

Hi GoldAndOil!
Platinum has been trading as an industrial metal - chiefly priced from demand for its use on diesel engine catalytic converters.
Its sister metals, palladium and rhodium, which are used in petrol engine catalytic converers and hybrids, have been doing much better - actually, fantastically well. I do wonder at what point platinum remembers that it is also a monetary metal, like gold and silver. Certainly, coin demand (chiefly from Japan) has been growing this year.
If you're invested in almost any South African platinum producer, you get palladium and rhodium exposure thrown in as well. In fact, if you choose carefully, rhodium production alone can amount to around 50% of a mine / recycler's revenues at current prices.
Sorry to cross ramp, but I recommend a look at PGM producer SLP, which is a) a surface operator (much easier with Covid) and b) has outstanding numbers.
Meanwhile, in other news, gold has broken through £1,500 / ounce.

PGMs seem to be following gold and silver higher.
Platinum now $930 and palladium $2,240. (Rhodium price tbc).
I can't help thinking that platinum will remember soon that it is a precious metal (a monetary metal) as well as an industrial metal. In particular, coin demand from Japan has been growing recently. How long until its price also catches fire? Historically, platinum's average price has been 1.25 times that of gold. Now it trades at less than 0.5 times the gold price. Mean reversion, anybody?

Hi Nimrod!
There will be dividend announcement together with the August full year results - we already know that for a fact.
The question is, how big a dividend? Liberum (the house broker) has predicted a huge one. I lean towards the lower side. But the company has the money to pay more or less any amount it chooses, up to say a 25% payout based on the current share price.