Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Gnome!
I don't look at it as an "either platinum or palladium" (pick one only) sort of investment choice.
If you go for any of the South African PGM miners you automatically get exposure to platinum AND palladium AND (extremely rare and expensive) rhodium. It's called the Prill split, and it varies from mine to mine, but a rough overall average would be 65% Pt, 28% Pd and 7% Rh). So you get to automatically spread your bet.
Hi Rebess!
Yes, SLP is volatile (aka illiquid). But it's not a lobster pot (i.e. easy to get into, almost impossible to get out of). One of the other PGM miners I mentioned, Tharisa, is actually worse from that point of view, as about 90% of its shares are not in circulation.
Obviously, these companies are higher risk than Centamin, and they are in South Africa. So please DYOR!

Hi Rebess!
SLP itself is solid - debt free, cash pile equal to @ 30% of mcap, well run, (highly) profitable, very low P/E, etc. Last quarter was only break-even due to South African Covid-19 shutdown, but they are back to full production again now. Annual results (to end June) should be out at the end of the month with announcement of annual dividend.
But, yes, the market-makers take SLP up and down in a highly volatile manner. Why they do it is something of a mystery to me. But they do. AIM, I guess...

1.25 times is the long term average ratio for platinum to gold prices. The ratio has gone up and down over time, of course. But currently it's near an all-time low, I think. (Less than 0.5 times).
So, just by a process of mean reversion, you could argue that the platinum price is due for a major rerate.
You could also argue that the develop of a green hydrogen economy would make an absolutely huge difference to platinum demand - it's the key catalyst in hydrogen hydrolysis, and a decent amount of the metal is required to make the process work.
(Sorry for wandering off-topic...)

Hi Gnome and All!
I'm also one of those who believe that there must be mileage in platinum group metals (platinum, palladium, and rhodium).
Palladium and rhodium are supported by catalytic converter demand for automobiles, and both are in deficit situations.
Platinum, which historically trades at 1.25 times gold price on average, is currently very cheap. I wonder if a combination of (old) automobile demand + (new) investment demand + (new) green hydrogen (hydrolysis) demand won't send the price soaring over the next year or two.
Suggestions: SLP (surface PGM recycler, very undervalued), THS (surface chrome/PGM miner), SPLT (platinum ETF), and (once Covid is under some control) deep PGM miners like Northam and Sibanye Stillwater.

Well, you can work that out from when I first posted. My first buy was at less than 20p.
As for who is stupid, I reckon I was pretty dumb putting money in a company with dire management like this in the first place. And I reckon participating in a board so plagued with group think and rudeness as this one wasn't too clever either.
So my bad...

Hi L2!
No, I mean over-ambitious CEO refuses friendly farm-in and takeover offers from majors and tries to finance a complex and expensive mine on a "go it alone" basis. Fails - inevitably. Majors wait until the last moment, and then buy it up for pennies. Almost total wipeout for long term shareholders.
But you already knew that, didn't you?
Signing off here now. GLA. But this one isn't for me.

Sold - at about a 20% profit overall. Not bad for a few weeks "work".
But this profit was luck and not skill. I underestimated the acute problems of this hopelessly mismanaged company, and I wouldn't take the same risk again, even with the price back at 20p. I'm convinced that NM will not sell SOLG willingly, and that any takeover will need to be hostile. And if you are BHP or Newcrest, what's the hurry? Unless a rival bids first, why not wait and let NM drive the company into the wall, and then pick it up for pennies in a year or two's time?
I know the board will mock this post, but wait and see. This is SXX all over again (except in Ecuador not Yorkshire, and with gold and copper not fertilizer!).
Anyway, GLA, and I hope I'm wrong!

My take on it...
A fair amount of good and some not so good in the RNS.
Production off and costs up (as previously indicated) - so not a great quarter in that respect. However, the times are exceptional.
Drill results excellent. And we should remember that it is the apparent short mine life of Yanfolila that is the main reason this company is so undervalued. Looking forward to the extended life mine plan later this year.
Also, good to see both Kouroussa and Dugbe progressing.
Still concerned about Mali politics. So for me it's a hold what I have. I may add once the political situation becomes clearer, or on price opportunity.

Hi Tornadotony!
I'm with you on this . Platinum has huge upside atm - car demand, investment demand, and hydrogen (hydrolysis) demand.
And SLP is a best of sector buy.

Yep, Copperpot, someone is desperate. And it is Nick Mather!
Frankly, I'm getting worried about my holding here. Nick Mather is clearly desperate to cling on to being CEO of Solgold at almost any cost. The Colonel's theory about his words being a bluff to extract the highest possible takeover price from a bidder is clearly wrong. He's power-crazy and dreaming of building an empire. And as Addicknt has previously noted on this board, empire builders always fail.
This company has got SXX written all over it. The CEO will drive it into the ground in pursuit of a financing scheme that could never work, and when failure is evident, a major will swoop in a buy it up for pennies.
The question is, does he have enough support from the big shareholders? Or can they get rid of him?

I'm bewildered how this board can put a positive spin on this RNS.
Reading between the lines, the RNS is an attempt to appease major shareholders, who presumably have indicated their displeasure at the way the company is currently being run. All in all, it is desperation measures. And it proves that a lot of what Cornerstone have been saying (e.g. the current board is stacked with NM's cronies) has at least some measure of truth behind it.
As a side-note, these moves will also be very expensive (in a non-productive way) for the company.
If a takeover isn't launched before October, I'd now put my money on Cornerstone's "sack the board" EGM motion succeeding. But I still reckon a takeover will likely happen before then.

Hi Gnome!
I noticed the lack of exploration news as well. However, I'm prepared to cut the new management some slack on this.
I believe new resource estimates for West Africa have already been promised in H2 this year. Hopefully, they will be accompanied by the announcement of what the company intends to do with those resources (sell / develop?).
As for Egypt, we know that the results of the new licence round will be announced on 15/9, and we've had hints from the company that they will be bidding. It's probably for the best that they are not talking about this in public for now.
Evidently, they are also reassessing exploration and development in the existing Sukhari concession as well.
I'll be disappointed if the exploration picture isn't much clearer by the end of the year. But, for now, I'm OK.

BP - cuts dividend in half due to very high debt levels - SP rises by 6%
Centamin - increases interim dividend by 50%, no debt - SP drops sharply (though it's coming back now)
I will never ever understand the stock market...

Gold price at $1978 - or "I don't like Mondays" by the Boomtown Rats.
In sterling, at £1,510 - or the early years of Henry VIIIth, if you prefer.
So that's not the reason for this morning's strange reaction to excellent results and a 50% increase in the interim dividend. If this were an AIM stock, I'd say the market-makers were deliberately dropping the bid to trigger stops and round up a few cheap shares. But it's not that, so I can't say why.
I have taken advantage of this drop, though!

SP currently down, at 206p! Very puzzling!

Excellent results with a very welcome 50% increase in the dividend.
I can't help thinking that the £ is too high at $1.30, so if that drops back to a more realistic level (considering all our problems), that may add to the SP rise over the next few days.

There isn't a link to Solgold!
The Barrick appointments are to cover the Africa and Mid-East regions. Considering that Barrick are only interested in Tier 1 assets (as per Mark Bristow, CEO), it is perhaps a hint that a bid might be coming in for Centamin from them in due course. We know that majors have been sniffing around Centamin since Endeavour made their own (failed) hostile takeover bid late last year. And Mark Bristow has previously spoken about the Arabian-Nubian shield (i.e. exactly where Centamin are mining in Egypt) being the last great frontier for gold exploration.

No, I'm not deramping, 2Goals!
I'm just pointing something out that I thought other investors might be glad of knowing.
If you want to close your eyes to it, fine. But this will be an "interesting" week in Bamako, that's for sure.
And how it ends will probably affect Hummingbird's operations in Mali, one way or another.
My money is on the opposition forcing out President Keita. They seem to have the support of the capital's populace.
Personally, I've been through too much with African miners (e.g. Acacia) to ever ignore jurisdictional risk again.

Hi Emkaybee!
Apparently RV and camper van sales are strongly up due to Covid19.
In effect, you take your own hotel room with you on your business trip or holiday. No airports, no airplanes, no taxis or buses, no hotel rooms. It's a whole lot less contact with strangers!

https://www.france24.com/en/20200803-soldiers-killed-in-attack-in-central-mali-political-crisis-continues