RE: On its way to 50p10 Sep 2025 09:07
Patent grant vs. drug approval
• Patent grant:
• Yes, it can take 2–4 years for the patent office (UK/EU/US) to formally grant a patent after filing.
• But the protection starts from the filing date, so competitors are blocked from copying even while the application is pending.
• So for valuation and M&A interest, the key is that IMM filed the patent — big pharma doesn’t wait until it’s “rubber-stamped.”
• Drug approval:
• Totally separate process. This is about clinical trials + regulators (FDA/EMA/MHRA), and that’s what governs when a drug can be sold to patients.
• The new diagnostic could shorten trials, but you’re still looking at years if IMM goes it alone.
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2. What drives the share price in the meantime?
• While waiting for either a patent grant or drug approval, share price (SP) moves mainly on:
• RNS updates (trial data, partnership/licensing news, financing, strategic deals).
• Market sentiment/trading flows (buys and sells, momentum, speculation).
• External catalysts (sector deals, competitor news, regulatory shifts).
The real kicker would be:
• A partnership/licensing deal with a big pharma (upfront cash + milestones).
• Or a buyout offer, which could land any time, since the IP is already filed and exclusivity claimed.
Yes, patents can take years to be granted.
• But that doesn’t delay a takeover or deal, because pharma values the patent from the moment of filing.
• The share price in the near term will be driven by RNS and investor sentiment, not by waiting years for the patent office to rubber-stamp it.
— here are some examples that show why a patent filing (not grant) is enough for a deal:
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🔹 Forty Seven Inc. (Bought by Gilead, 2020)
• Stage: Mid-stage clinical trials, with IP applications still pending.
• Deal: Gilead paid $4.9 billion.
• Why: They had a unique checkpoint mechanism (CD47) with early data and filed patents. Granting wasn’t complete, but Gilead wanted exclusivity locked in.
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🔹 Principia Biopharma (Bought by Sanofi, 2020)
• Stage: Early to mid-clinical, patents filed for BTK inhibitor.
• Deal: Sanofi paid $3.7 billion.
• Why: Strong IP filings + Phase II proof. Again, patents weren’t fully granted worldwide, but exclusivity was protected from the filing date.
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🔹 Arena Pharmaceuticals (Bought by Pfizer, 2021)
• Stage: In trials for autoimmune drugs.
• Deal: Pfizer paid $6.7 billion.
• Why: Market demand for autoimmune pipeline. The IP position was based on filings, not all fully granted.
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🔹 Why this matters for IMM
• IMM has just filed a groundbreaking patent for P140 + diagnostic test.
• Even if it takes 2–4 years to be fully “granted,” pharma already sees it as exclusive IP from the filing date.
• That means IMM could strike a licensing or buyout deal any time now — they don’t need to wait for the patent office to