Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Why is it cheap north?
It’s capped around £46m and it’s production figures are pitiful.
All this mention of potential, there is no CPR produced with credible reserves booked. All flows to date are from the Portland reservoir.
The Kimmeridge where the billions of barrels were touted has flowed what exactly? The broadford bridge well was a disaster and is now brushed under the carpet for the chase of the new Horizontal well into the Portland zone which again as ran into issues.
Whilst I have no doubt oil will continue to be produced there is nothing to warrant the current market valuation nor any future projected ones unless you can tell me otherwise?
North I read it and so by your own admission are you going to assume a loss here?
In which case why put more good money after bad?
All I see here is comments that shares at 0.5/0.6p are cheap. Cheap compared to what that they used to be 10p?
If some sold you a big fat slice of a cake for 10p and then a year later sold you 2p crumbs for 1p would that seem cheap? After all, it’s all from from the same cake..
north, if you assume a minor dilution to 8bn shares (baring in mind the CLN is chucking out millions periodically) your projection at 2.3p would give the company an MCAP of £184m.
For what?
Its share of perhaps 1000-1500bopd. To give you some context I have added stakes to a company at 13k bopd production and increasing, no debt, positive cashflow and OIP 2P of over 360mbo and growing with an MCAP of less then what your touting.
Wake up.
Finished building a stake here today.
Recoverable rates were touted at being somewhere between Best and High Estimate of 10.5MMcf and 16MMcf. Tabled NPV range of C$220m to C$650m.
Very high level but taking a midcase for the existing two wells is approx C$435m or £333m.
With a deeper zone at Cascadura still to test along with Royston and Chinook.
Following on, Vintage assigned their 65% stake to Aventura Energy which was later acquired by BG and subsequently taken over by Shell.
This was in 2004 at a price roughly today of 131p. This excludes all the other potential and existing production. This also was for a 65% stake, TXP hold 80% or Ortoire and to date, it appears to be a bigger discovery.
BG Group intends to make a recommended take-over offer of Canadian $5.10 per share for all of the shares in Aventura Energy Inc. (Aventura), through its wholly-owned Canadian subsidiary, BG Canada Ltd. The total purchase price to be paid by BG Group is approximately Canadian $228 million (US$171 million)
Aventura is an exploration and production company with a 65% participating interest in, and operatorship of, the 111 square kilometer, onshore Central Block exploration license in south Trinidad. Petrotrin, the state-owned hydrocarbon company, holds the remaining 35%. The estimated proved and probable reserves in the license are approximately 0.5 trillion cubic feet.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/11699/bg_group_to_acquire_aventura_energy/
This was Vintages results in the neighboring Carapal ridge from a similar sized structure.
Vintage Petroleum, Inc. announced that completion and initial testing operations have concluded on the Carapal Ridge #1, the first of two exploration wells drilled by Vintage in the onshore Central Block of Trinidad. The initial tests indicate the Miocene Herrera formation encountered by this well is a high quality gas reservoir. Five separate intervals within a total gross pay of l,000 feet were individually tested at a combined daily rate in excess of 50 million cubic feet of gas and 1,500 barrels of condensate.
Current plans are to pursue a gas connection that would allow a multi- month production test and sale of hydrocarbons to confirm that sufficient reserves exist for future development. Work is also ongoing to assess the potential market options for reserves, as further development opportunities are dependent upon obtaining access to a long-term gas market
https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/1767/vintage_petroleum_provides_update_on_trinidad_operations/
I think we can be looking at a multiple of today's share prices levels even on just an additional (similar) successful result from Cascadura alone.
You only need to calculate the figures from existing production and COHO. Circa 15k boepd which fits nicely in with PBs projections on the top end of the "Best Estimates".
If the deeper horizon which was the original target and still to be drilled also was successful then all bets are off on where this can go.
This is even before Chinook and Royston come in to the picture.
It is amazing that the limitation of the flowback was capped at 30MMCFD (circa 5800boepd) due to rig capacity at a 20% drawdown.
It makes you wonder what total flow rates would be if they could fully test the horizon, I think PB alluded to running it at a much higher drawdown rate if they could.
Paul Baays successful history speaks for itself. A very investable individual.
? Paul Baay, President and Chief Executive Officer of Touchstone, founded True Energy Inc. which increased production between 2000 and 2007 from 350 boepd to 20,000 boepd
? True Energy Inc. then split into Bellatrix Exploration Inc. and Vero Energy Inc.; subsequently Vero Energy Inc. was sold to TORC Oil and Gas Ltd. for approximately C$200 million in 2012.
I know Dana, potentially 150mmcfd gas plant.. what a problem to have!
I liked the comments around their confidence increasing on Royston and Chinook.
Touchstone could be sitting on the next Carapal Ridge and/or bigger.
I must admit, having just looked at an updated presentation sheet provided by home brew on Twitter the prospective volumetric OIP for Cascadara far exceeds what I originally first thought.
What is even more of GIANT cherry on top is that those figures were calculated on a pay zone less then half the thickness of that encountered.
It’s actually larger then I first imagined.
https://t.co/e0xkT9ksA1
Sounds like Paul expects the upper zone to be of similar production capabilities..
10k boepd from Cacadara + 2k boepd from COHO + 2k existing production.
14k boepd and further deeper horizon to test plus Royston and Chinook.
World Class.