Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
whatever price you pay be sure to stand your corner in the RI or you will lose practically 95% of your investment.
Effectively you need to double down. Why would you?
And then there is £2.2bn debt to add to the mix...
Either way - personally I would not be buying in the market today.
Those who choose to take up their RI will cover the destruction (but as I said more good money after bad).
Those who do not will have their capital decimated.
There will be some bits and pieces ive missed like reduction in nominal value benefits ££ but thats my interpretation
This should help;
766,000,000 in issue today @ 384m mcap = 50p per share.
consolidation for nominal value reduction @ 5-1 to leaves 153,000,000 in issue = £2.50 a share.
153,000,000 x 24 RI shares = 3,672,000,000 new shares to issue
15p RI price x 3,672,000,000 = £550,800,000 cash raised
3,672,000,000 + 153,000,000 existing shares = 3,825,000,000 (total issue)
Which gives the company post todays MCAP price...
£384m existing MCAP + cash £550,800,000 + VIA sales of £274,000,000 = £1,208,800,000 enlarged capital
£1,208,800,000 / 3,825,000,000 = 31.6p per share.
Dave Atkins, do not pass go - do not collect £200 and whilst on your way sell your property back to the bank at discount value to cover what you owe them.
"The company said on Thursday it would look to dispose of more assets to bring its loan-to-value ratio down."
Crown Jewels already gone, anything else it sells to cover the outstanding £2.2bn of debt (if this RI and sale is successful) will just eat into future revenues.
I feel for those who are in there and have lost. All down IMHO to a huge over reaction by Government which has resulted in total destruction to the retail sector.
I cannot see how this can recover, even if the shares are taken up the future revenues look uncertain given the new Index tracking based model. Only 34% of revenues have been collected from Q3 (an increase of JUST 4%).
The raise has been done at a huge discount to NAV which shows the appetite of the market, NAV is illusionary in this case since continual write downs are on the cards. The INTU estates are being sold off into a market with little appetite which does not help in the marketing valuations of those Hammerson wish to sell.
Not entirely sure how debt will be serviced going forward this to me feels like sticking a plaster on a gaping wound (if they even get it away at all)
https://www.ft.com/content/4240275a-110a-4a6d-9412-31e9267ba441
Poker yes but more good money after bad?
The retail sector will not recover for some time. HMSO newly designed policy on setting variables rents against an Index is quite inventive however it appears its a means to an end to just ensure rents are paid.
Ultimately the real question will be can they hedge as, whilst prices may be lower at present for occupants it is only merely to secure a foothold. (Some payments are better than none) - I cant see their debtors following suit and reducing their rates against a suffering market place.
Rent collection: As at 31 July 2020, 72% of H1 2020 rent had been collected for the Group, with 34% of Q3 rent due collected. Average rental waiver of 1.1 months and deferral of 0.8 months during Covid-19 closures
34% only a very marginal increase.
It’s shareholder wipeout in order to survive unfortunately.
Look at INTU, the only way potentially they have garnered interest to raise such an amount in these markets.
£600m already marked down from £700m and sold for circa £274m.
The Crown Jewels.
Smasher you could be right, interestingly looking at the 2019 pres (below) there is no mention of Chinook.
https://www.touchstoneexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/May-2019-TXP-Presentation.pdf
Typo or was Casca split later?
Tonnacombe, I dug back to the May 2019 presentation prior to the well being drilled and ignoring the upper gas rich zones (which have proven the excellent results to date). Below are the notes on Cascadura deep highlighting previous exploration and production;
On trend with known production at Central Block and Catshill field Reinterpretation of 1950 vintage logs and correlation to Corosan-1 Log c. 2001 BW-5 well had oil production (>27,000 bbls) but did not reach primary target BW-7 and BW-7X wells were not tested due to interpretive and technical issues CEC pending for six (6) locations.
Balata West BW-5 (c. 1958)
Free oil observed while drilling Herrera FM 125 lbs/ft3 mud weight
187 feet of net hydrocarbon (Rt >5O)
44 feet of reservoir completed
Repeat section not tested due to stuck pipe.
1,552’ Gross Herrera thickness 1,253 feet of Net Hydrocarbon Pay 113 lbs/ft3 mud weight
Free oil while drilling
“severe tectonics” (bed angles)
Not Tested
Tonnacombe, thanks for the post and great insight. In regards the deeper and original zone target and your points around it masking the upper gas within the Herrera payzone. I recall reading that on previous Shell drills they did encounter oil shows, how would that correlate with what you are thinking?
Simon, that isnt my range - its a copied post from ADVFN.
Needless to say even at a conservative and low evaluation price you can see the inherent value here.
The prices PB stated may also need adjustment if they contract in the infrastructure costs as part of the deal.
** Casca discovery that is.
I havent even touched on Casca deep which as we know was the original horizon. If this also comes in then the stacked horizons at each location could be again even bigger not just horizontally but vertically too.
Starbucks indeed.
The initial announcement of Casca deep discovery said it all, unbounded and with flow back far exceeding the limitations of their equipment and still at a minimal draw down you knew it was big.
Just how big this is alone is anyones guess but for an initial CPR to conservatively state around 500bcf without any further drilling and appraisal you know it is going to be huge.
With Chinook now being mentioned as a look-a-like and with previous drills showing hydrocarbons targetting the same sands (albeit in a seperate structure) the enormity of the whole drilling campaign and existing discoveries is still not priced on.
And still we also forget the recent success at COHO-1 which again exceeded flowback expectations by about 50%.