RE: Donβt go chasing rainbows24 Dec 2020 21:41
EL absolutely. Comparing the price of the shares between companies it is as you say totally irrelevant ...if you think it is you are really in the wrong game here. Two things matter:
1. The percent increase of the current share price / MCap (same thing really) you think company A or B can make over a given time period.
2. The risk involved
Smaller early exploration companies are have a low market cap (Β£10, 20 ,30 million etc. )and if successful "could" bag many, many times, but the risk of failure is high and so many will either away: what meaningful results have they to date? What is the likely eventual capacity of the mine (crystal ball stuff)? How well funded are they to achieve what they will need? What is the track record of the board? Etc etc.
GGP on the other hand is a reasonably high MCap already. To bag from where it is will take approx. Β£1.4 billion increase in MCap...whereas a tiny exploreray only need Β£20 million to double. GGP is however IMO at its current price largely derisked. The gold is in the ground, it's going to be mined and the current price only reflects approx 30% ish of what they/we know is there (Initial resource). As a result your money is a lot, lot safer here than in an early explorer...but there is a much lower chance of as many "bags" if they early explorer has a big hit.
Personally I think GGP will still 2 to 2.5 bag based on Havieron with the opportunity of maybe 3 to 6 if there are hits at one or more Swag, BH, PE, Rudall in 2021. Most of my cash is staying here as I think it's pretty safe and am more than happy for 100% gains on it over the next year. Some (5 %) I have skimmed off and played in more risky early explorers with in the knowledge there is a good chance I could lose it, but if I get lucky I might make big.
The early explorers are not the types of companies to invest in and forget about. You need to follow them diligently as most will fail and you need to be on the ball to read the tea leaves and get out early if they are going to.