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Heron is Heron and has been approved locally, paperwork pending.
Longer term the National Wealth Fund offers the prospect of individual citizens accepting and even encouraging the development of Mongolia's natural resources. With widespread support across the nation it will be much harder for local groups and activists to attempt to pressurise Politicians into blocking developments if they know that the majority of their voting constituency are in favour.
At a local, regional and national level it all appears to be going in the direction that Petro Matad would want.
Allow a diversity of views if politely expressed and don't just remove posts because the Bully Boy yobs don't like to hear anything resembling reality in what they consider to their own private echo chamber.
Also a right of reply before posts are deleted.
Avacta is completely unique except of course in the sense that it isn't and is completely like every other pharmaceutical/drug development company.
They're doing a drug trial and they're following the rules by which all drug trials are done.
There aren't shortcuts and they can't preempt the outcomes before the Medical statistics have been done to categorically show superiority or otherwise.
They can't give a 'nudge nudge' interview to Richard and Judy or anyone else in the media.
Early clinical impressions can be relayed in updates and investors might choose to be guided by these in advance of the formal trial conclusions or not.
It takes as long as it takes and it costs what it costs.
Dr Smith et al will get it over the line by hook or by crook as that's his primary concern, if shareholders cop a load of dilution and angst in the short term I don't think he'll loose too much sleep over it.
Ignore the potential adverse effects of Contract Loan Notes finance deals at your peril ICE.
I can't think of any other logical reason why the Share Price is falling.
As you say the development programme is going well and fully funded, and yet......
I'm explaining the apparent contradiction of what looks to be a World Class asset developing over the medium to longer term with near term share price weakness.
If you can buy back in once you know that the majority of the Share Holder dilution has occurred and the share price is about to re-trace and multi bag then you might do very well indeed out of this stock.
I'm not sure when that's going to be but when it happens there'll be plenty of time to get back on board.
It's called investing.
I have a track record of pointing out what has come to pass over time.
You have a record of telling people to ignore the short term share price fluctuations (define short term) and wait to get rich when the FDA sign of AVA6000/Dox. Which might happen at some point.
You also were insistent that the share price fall to 50p was clearly due to a big imminent incoming Big Pharma deal and called anyone who doubted this, including myself, FUDsters who were just trying to drive down the share price rather than just pointing out the blindingly obvious.
When you can't spot the blindingly obvious for what it is ICE you probably ought to consider the notion that you're an idiot.
The science is undoubtedly complicated but the underlying concepts are easy to explain and understand even for complete laymen.
There is a paradox though.
The longer term prospects appear to be fantastic and if anything improve with time but the time frame extends, more money is needed and the share price falls.
My Sirius analogy was derided by many but does appear to have been rather too close to the truth to be comfortable as it turns out, rather like when I was shouted down for suggesting that it was too early to say that 'it works' on the back of a half dozen patients and some encouraging adjectives (or was it Pronouns) in an RNS and that Big Pharma would need much more than that to commit the big monies that would be needed.
Still that's the beauty of a Bulletin Board (if posts don't get deleted) you can read everything and adjust you strategy accordingly - or not as is more often the case.
Your initial calcs were based on a stable or modestly increasing share price.
The share price was 50p last week, it's now heading for 40p and Heights shares will be issued at a discount to this prevailing share price.
If it was 50p last week and shares will be being sold onto the Market next week issued in the 30s only 2 weeks later why would you not think 20p possible in the near term?
For the sake of completeness GJE could you run the calcs again with a share price of 20p and 10p.
Thanks.
Potash!
I think Avacta probably do have the funds to Commercialise AVA6000 BV but it's coming at a heavy cost to the shareholders and share price.
Way back when I thought that it was possible that AVA6000 might produce such excellent clinical results that word of mouth and excitement in the scientific/clinical World would propel the share price forward on a wave of good news, as we now know it's all a bit more nuanced than that. Many of the patients/tumour types enrolled would never have been expected to respond well to Doxorubicin no matter how it was administered. It also looks like AVA6000 is being flushed out of the system rather quicker than they thought taking the bound Doxorubicin with it.
Shorter dosing intervals and patients/tumours being selected that are likely to respond well will hopefully be an easier story to sell. Patient numbers will still be small but consistent clinical responses in a high proportion of patients should start to turn the tide. Several months into Cohort 3? 9 patients?
Time will tell.
Of course the response might not be that good? Unlikely but possible. Never say never in clinical trials.
If it appears to be working however they can then do deals licensing the PreCision platform out to others to do the costly trials for other warheads. This'll be the real inflection point.
And then move on to cohort two?
Cybertron that's one of the biggest cliches in the hopelessly bullish nonsense posters playbook.
How could they possibly know what's coming or not.
You've a hunch this is going to come good soon, and I agree with you.
But the evidence is in the facts and narrative of the RNSs and what's been reported from Mongolia itself.
There's no need to make stuff up, it diminishes the argument.
Yes, yes, multiple accounts, paid for trolls. There are 5 or 6 of us working for Tom.
There I've gone and admitted it now.
To think that's the level you have stoop to to persuade yourselves that you're in the right.
Because predicting what a share price is likely to do (and calling it right) tends to allow you to either make money or not to loose it -which amounts to the same thing?
Or is that not the point.
You can like the company and what it's doing but choose to not invest in it until you feel that the time is right.
Discussing views with reasoning allows posters access to a range of views that they can choose to consider to guide their action: agree, ignore, green bin or hurl abuse.
Counting yourself there Watching?
How apt.
He's the resident 'Clown Spotter.'
Invaluable input.
So someone opening a short position expecting a significant fall in the share price and you're saying that this is a good thing because when they close it it'll put upward pressure on the share price.
Hmm.
The trouble though Gje is that you calculate the issued shares against the total number of shares in existence.
What moves the share price on a week by week basis is the number of shares issued and then sold by Heights relative to the volume of shares bought and sold over the same period of time. This is obviously a much, much smaller number of shares and the impact of these shares being released onto the market will be significantly larger than your rather benign interpretation.
Indeed it's this disproportionate and ever increasing downward pressure (more shares at a cheaper price with every conversion) that can so very destructive in terms of the longer term share price.
The term 'death spiral' is used for a reason.
But also including the Share Price GJE.
Your recent Contract Loan Notes calculations were designed to reassure, with some prompting you ran the numbers assuming a share price of just 30p.
The problem however is that each round Height's repayment effectively sets a new floor for the share price.
Today we might close at 47.5p? Loose another 2.5p by next week and then the conversion of shares at a 10% discount to the prevailing share price will be at 40p.
Already half way to your 'worst case scenario' figures which you tabulated earlier this week!
3 months time: 30p? etc etc.
CLNs need buying volume and news to sustain buying pressure to counter the constant downward pressure on the share price.
If it's falling and everyone knows it's likely to fall further then why not sit on the sidelines to await events?