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So someone opening a short position expecting a significant fall in the share price and you're saying that this is a good thing because when they close it it'll put upward pressure on the share price.
Hmm.
The trouble though Gje is that you calculate the issued shares against the total number of shares in existence.
What moves the share price on a week by week basis is the number of shares issued and then sold by Heights relative to the volume of shares bought and sold over the same period of time. This is obviously a much, much smaller number of shares and the impact of these shares being released onto the market will be significantly larger than your rather benign interpretation.
Indeed it's this disproportionate and ever increasing downward pressure (more shares at a cheaper price with every conversion) that can so very destructive in terms of the longer term share price.
The term 'death spiral' is used for a reason.
But also including the Share Price GJE.
Your recent Contract Loan Notes calculations were designed to reassure, with some prompting you ran the numbers assuming a share price of just 30p.
The problem however is that each round Height's repayment effectively sets a new floor for the share price.
Today we might close at 47.5p? Loose another 2.5p by next week and then the conversion of shares at a 10% discount to the prevailing share price will be at 40p.
Already half way to your 'worst case scenario' figures which you tabulated earlier this week!
3 months time: 30p? etc etc.
CLNs need buying volume and news to sustain buying pressure to counter the constant downward pressure on the share price.
If it's falling and everyone knows it's likely to fall further then why not sit on the sidelines to await events?
Did he get funding OK Sheppy?
I always thought there's be a discounted raise.
Didn't you?
BV when you say Dr Smith has trashed the share price do you mean that he was honest and transparent in his statements regarding the company's near term prospect and doing his job of keeping his investors fully informed?
Do you prefer the sort of AIM company CEO in a shiny suit and pointy shoes who always paints a lovely picture (was it Deep Verge that PL invested in back in the Covid days?)
I'll stick with nice straightforward honest Dr Smith thanks very much.
It is odd that people don't realise that you can think that the company might be huge in the long run but choose to be 'out' to buy in at a cheaper price without spending month after month seeing you investment shrink before your eyes.
Still, there's more than one investment strategy.
A good one, and the others.
You don't flog the platform you flog the rights to use it with specified drugs/warheads to multiple companies.
Unless silly money is mentioned I suppose.
Think think think, Energy's thought of a quick cheap and cheerful deal to make everyone feel a bit happier in May or letting the highly competent (in my opinion) CEO get on with playing the longer game for the greater good of the company, shareholders and cancer patients.
Not a difficult choice really.
Accept that it's a proper drug trial that takes money and time, that's how it always is.
Doesn't fit with your agenda and preconceptions?
Tough?
I didn't see the calculation when the share price falls as a result of Height's loan Pedro.
Did you?
Because that's the problem with this sort of finance deal.
I think stepping back and objectively assessing the likely dilution ignores a couple of things.
You're assuming a share price increase over time for a start.
There may well be an increase with positive news but how far away is that?
There's just been a shareholder update and clinical update and the rate of recruitment for 2W trial is unclear.
If a potential investor was looking to get in they might feel comfortable waiting on the sidelines.
Similarly Heights will be offloading ang and holders may simply run out of patience.
It's a buy/sell dynamic at the end of the day, it's called a stock market for a reason.
Why would they announce something 'to the media'?
It either stands up to scientific scrutiny and the regulatory authorities or it doesn't.
Not that I don't have time for Richard Madely you understand but really?
I'm not sure I do think it's going to fail ICE, did I say that I did?
I like to think I've got a more open mind to that eventuality possibly happening though ICE because believe it or not it might.
Sorry Wynn you'll be one of the 'non researched' Ice has so cleverly identified.
You've either got it or you haven't.
He's read the RNSs and seen the presentations.
He understands that many solid tumours over express FAP. I can't remember what it stands for but ICE does, that's how clever he is. But this is the best bit Wynn, there's something that Avacta do to drugs like Doxoribidicn so that they're only active in the TME (tissue middle enzyme) which stops people's hair fall out.
I think it's a cure for baldness but truth be told I'm not sure I fully understand it.
But ask ICE because he does!
I think he's brilliant.
A tumour that is 74% of the original tumour size is bigger than one that is 65% of the original size.
Unless you're talking percentage reductions?
You know what Rorke you may well be right.
I do actually think Avacta are likely onto a big time winner with AVA6000.
But the process has to be gone through and it takes more time and money than most think.
Big Pharma needs statistical certainty not anecdotal miracles.
It's hard to argue that selling after science day to buy back nearer the big reveal wasn't the correct call.
Hopefully all invested will make money.
Because AVA6000 is getting washed out of the body too quickly to do its job?
Hence the 2 weekly dosing regime, talk of the propriatory Avacta serum half life extension platform and more 'powerful' warheads?
Oh sorry.
Handn't you thought of that?
It'll probably make a difference but....
More time.
More money.
Luckily there is only one 'truth'.
Who ends up walking away with more than they put in.
Nice to 'banter' along the way thoug so well done you Ice for keeping up the chat.
I aim to be back in though ICE with many more shares bought at a much lower share price.
Different investment strategies as you say.
The ultimate fate of Avacta won't be decided by the likes of you and me. All we can do is try to make the best of whatever opportunities come our way whilst events unfold.
Ever listened to 'Cabin Pressure' ICE?
BBC radio comedy, very good.
In one episode Arthur (a well meaning idiot) recalls the 'brilliant' day his lottery numbers came up.
He hadn't bought a ticket that week but wasn't it still 'brilliant'?
One of those possibilities is a nailed on certainly with a known timeframe.
The other an as yet unknown outcome and an unknown, but already slipping quite badly, timeframe.
It's not hard to see how investors might choose to use these facts to make some money or increase their holding in the company.