focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Marshall Wace -0.15% declared Monday. If the shorts are closing, that must be a good sign as they can't expect further significant falls and must be on or about their target price. This doesn't mean an instant recovery coming, but at least sets this as close to bottom (at last).
I doubt that the Liberum clients will be sorry. After all, they caused a nice wave of FUD to allow them to exit their short.
As for the historical accuracy of Liberum forecasts generally? Ha bl**dy ha, one of the worst outfits around for pushing their book.
Market manipulation at its finest
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cryptos-tumble-after-china-again-vows-crackdown-mining-and-trading
After another soul destroying update I propose the company rebrand from SDX Energy to SCW
Spend-Capitalise-Write off
This obsession with Morocco has to end. Get rid of it, concentrate on Egypt and start buying back shares at £2 NAV per £1 invested instead of wasting it on Moroccan capex that never realises any positive value. My worst investment ever (now averaged down to 36p) which only Hanut can rescue assuming the market fair values a discovery. A company run by management for management and screw the shareholders.
I knew this continual drop couldn't be a natural price movement when it was the opposite of what other travel or insurer stocks were doing.
Sure enough, the shorting scum are back! Millennium International opened -0.55% position last Thursday and more since I suspect - either them or colluding others. Dangerous to bet against the next positive vaccine boost IMHO. Also gives me more confidence to hold as it's not purely profit-takers from the lower levels heading for the exit.
Apart from the unreliability of anything coming out of Peel Hunt, the one thing we can really look to with confidence is that Mooky is not only hugely invested personally but also has the family's interests all tied to CINE via trust holdings.
A d4e would wipe us out, and he's not about to do that to himself and his family.
Apart from vaccine news which will keep up the volatility, the next big thing for CINE is if Wonder Woman 1984 gets pulled again, hitting the Xmas programme. That will decide when the doors open again.
Ahh, the same Morgan Stanley that just cut the price target by 37% recommends buying Gold. Corporate cognitive dissonance?! I find that broker notes are usually one of two things and treat them with the contempt they deserve:
(i) catching up with what the market did after their last 'analysis' which was proved totally wrong
(ii) pushing the company/clients book position
The market on results day was always going to focus on the writedown (which looks like a kitchen sink job to me) and consequent accounting loss, but SDX is a share that will reward patience.
Looking forwards we have a company with greatly increased revenue (irrespective of Covid effect), zero long term debt and plenty of reserves. We are on a forward price earnings ratio of less than 1, a market value to current NAV discount of 65% and much more once the cash starts piling up (remember most of the capex is in 1H)
Whilst risky debt-loaded companies shares are flying, we remain invisible and unloved. So when will this change? Q1 results in June will be the first big indication of the shift to profitability. Q2 will be dampened by Covid then Q3 should be the first clean quarter at the new output levels. Sobhi drill I suspect will add nothing in the short-term but suddenly reserves will be back in positive focus once the share begins to climb.
I'm holding for now then will be looking to increase nearer June - hopefully with plenty of profits from the post-covid bounce. Thank God for ITV today
LMS2 wildcat drill finds gas and an up day (for once) with the oil price. Surely the rot will stop for at least 24 hours!
Mark Reid commented:
The Company remains well funded with US$11.0 million of cash as at 31 December 2019 and US$7.5 million of debt available in our EBRD credit facility. Furthermore, even at an oil price assumption of $55/bbl, approximately 80% of 2020 and 90% of 2021 forecast cash flows are estimated to come from our fixed price gas businesses in Egypt and Morocco. Given the above, we are positioned strongly to continue to weather the current fall in oil prices
Except that Shell doesn't have 80% of it's income in fixed price gas contracts!
Since 23rd January this share has fallen from 27p to 11.50p (-57%) based on a fall in oil price of around 50%
So this should equate to a 10% drop in SDX income/price, or 24.3p - and SDX was already grossly undervalued.
Absolute joke, I'd be piling in further if it weren't for losing my shirt on Tullow!
LSE has the correct transaction total of 31 trades but isn't showing them correctly.
Normally you would see only the most recent but in this case it's missing some out as well as not being up to date.
I can see all 503K on level 2, 0.25% of total shares driving a -14% drop, ridonculous!