Member Info for thinksmart

Are you thinking then that the company (Asterand) would try to manipulate the SP, or that another company who made the offer might try to do that? Does anyone know if, whilst in a bid situation like this, a company (and its officers) that has made an offer is barred from buying or selling any of the company's shares on the open market?

I read that us humans place more weight/value/importance on our negative experiences than our positive ones, and that in investing we get less pleasure from our "wins" than we get depression from our "losses". In other words, a £1000 gain on a share might make us momentarily ecstatic, and temporarily happy, but it is soon forgotten, whereas losing even a tenth of that on a deal can depress us for days. This leads to us fearing loss more than we value the chance of gain. But its more complicated than that, as we also fear the loss OF a gain. So if we're £1000 up on a share and it slips back to a £950 gain we can't stand losing that £50 and rather than sell we hang on hoping to get back to a £1000 gain. The more the price slips back the more we rue the loss and prey for a bounce. Eventually we see the whole lot slipping away, panic sell, realise an actual loss and then watch the thing bounce back up bewildered and feeling somehow cleverly robbed. Its all fascinating stuff, to me at least, but my point here is merely to pose the question of how is all that psychological programming affecting our decisions on what to do with ATD. And how do we ignore that and do what's most rational, logical, and has the highest percentage chance of producing the best result? Oh, if you were hoping for an answer to that at the bottom of all this, sorry - I aint got one! lol

I've heard mention of signals but never read up about them and don't know if they are real or just an urban myth/conspiracy theory. I guess I ought to do a bit of research. Hmmm so much to learn so little time, and patience, and money...

If I came on here and said "ATD are way late with news on offers so clearly they can't get a decent deal and this share is going to plummet" what would you say? You'd go nuts at me and say I was deramping, and quite rightly so. But although we don't say it that's exactly what we're all letting ourselves think - even though there's no actual basis for it. What has changed since 2 or 3 weeks ago when everyone was saying (and presumably believing) that news of a an offer over 15p was about to break? Answer: Nothing. Nothing has changed other than time has passed and allowed the great doubter and worrier in us all to surface. But the facts remain the same - that the company has stated that it has several interested parties. Until we know more any decisions that we make are likely to be purely emotional ones - listening to our own personal little rampers and derampers that sit in our brains making life hell and letting them influence us unduly. We all no emotional investing is bad - very bad - but know it doesn't make it any easier to control it or stop doing it. I don't think we can assume that ATD is any better or worse prospect than it was a month ago. It was probably over-egged back then and now we're letting our fears play with our heads. Personally I hope I find the nerves to ride it out as would hate to bail now at a loss only to see a great offer finally surface. Time will tell on both fronts! lol Good luck everyone and may the force be with you

Where did the muted 12 to 25p range come from. Was it mere speculation or do you know if it was based on hard calcs? Right now 9p would feel like a get out of jail card! But maybe the night is darkest just before dawn.

I don't understand why they reported that 100k sell so late. I wouldn't have thought that was big enough to justify them delaying news of the transaction. Still, hopefully that was the reason for the drop in bid price. Sad to see you getting nervous and selling Blowster - if you are losing faith what hope for the rest of us!? Its always such a difficult call re when to hold and when to bail. Halving exposure always seems like a sensible hedge in such circumstances. Sadly I'm on quite a loss now so would only be banking a loss if I top sliced. I'm guessing they had some sort of offer but probably around 6p and have been negotiating since to try to get the offer price raised but who knows. So the gamble is:- (A) the chance of a deal falling through and the SP falling back a couple of pence or so, versus (B) the chance of an offer being "accepted" at somewhere close to the current SP, versus (C) the chance of an offer being "accepted" at a premium to the current SP (and possibly a considerable premium) On the basis of the above I currently think its worth holding and letting the game play out as A hopefully shouldn't be the end of the world, B shouldn't be any worse off than I am now, and C would be good (and possibly excellent) Just my way of looking at it (today - tomorrow I might be in a much bleaker mood!)

I've decided I definitely need to get direct access. Want to be able to see if they have a big order or sell on the books.

Any news behind today's odd drop - a big sale in the background maybe? anyone know anything?

lol I don't really have any information sadly. Just my own perceptions with are consistently proven wrong. I still think your 1.95 has possibility as I wonder how many people will get bored of holding when there's still been no RNS early next week. Having said that though, your 2.15 is spot on at the moment!

Emailed HL. got a reply explaining that cash is in my income account which isn't obvious and just needs a call to move it to my capitol account so I can reinvest it. Done now and got the spondulies

Rang HL this morning. Said they expected the b share cash yesterday but it didn't come so should arrive today. Since then my b shares have disappearedfrom my portfolio. No tranactions, not even pending, no explanation, and NO CASH! TYPICAL OF HL.

False alarm sorry. Spoke to HL. They said "Bit Situation" should mean that someone has made a bid for the company. However when I said that was more info than is in the public domain and all that's out is that they've put themselves up for sale they said it would mean no more than was in the public domain and must just be that they are up for sale.

Hargreaves Lansdown report ATD as being in a "Bid Situation". Not entirely sure whether that means anything more than we already know or not.

I think its reasonable to assume that any first offer(s) would be tentative and low to sound out BoD's view on company value and their determination to hold out for "real" value. No-one is going to pay double the price of a company if they could get it at market cap so interested parties are likely to try a punt of an offer first. This would then lead to discussion and negotiation and hopefully effectively an auction if multiple parties are interested with the BoD playing off one party against another to get best value. Hopefully that's what's in play right now.

No not yet mate you're fine. Give me time though lol Hopefully just a little more patience called for on this one. Gl

2012 though not 2011. Hell hope there're not THAT slow! Lol

A 100% definite assumption then lol Agree though that if no offers made by 17th we should have heard something by now.

Interesting. Do you often find that shares' SPs broadly follow the charts' predictions. It sort of fits with my expectations that there may be some uplift from people hopeful of a pour on Monday and an RNS on Wednesday. Personally I don't expect a pour for more than a week yet and am not 100% confident we'll even see an RNS announcing it anyway, unless its such a good pour they feel they have something to crow about. The share seems to have moved to become one that rises on anticipation of news and then falls, either through impatience because news doesn't come, or because the news that does come isn't positive enough to satisfy the market.

Kind of worrying when they can't spell the name of the location!

Thanks guys. I've run out of guesses on ANGM now. I thought this recent rise would be a short term spike and it would drop back close to 2.0 for a while and then rise up again towards the end of the month on the anticipation of an RNS with pour news. I get the feeling from the regular chat though that the market is expecting a pour RNS this week or next. That makes no sense to me but as I say I've now come to accept that whatever happens next it won't be whatever I expect.