Member Info for thinksmart

...no trading so far so no panic sell off. Figures probably no worse than expected. Still waiting for news on formal sale process.

Had a quick squint at the results. Wondering if anyone has analysed them in detail or has any views on them? Revenue up on 2010 but not by a huge amount.

there has to be a big buy being put together in the background or not yet notified - unless someone has any better ideas?

Is there some news just breaking? Why has the price suddenly hiked?

Possibly Monday will change the picture one way or another considerably. Or maybe we just wait until we die! lol

last chance to buy in ahead of results! lol It would be a brave move but if I wasn't already over exposed here I might be tempted to risk a flutter in case the results aren't as bad as expected and there's positive news on some sort of deal and the market shows its approval. Realistically though I think we've all slumped into such pessimistic mood we wouldn't dare lol

The decision on whether to buy, hold, or sell for any share should really have no interest in what the existing holding was bought for, but, as STB suggests should be based on what the share is worth right now, versus what the share is likely to be worth going forward (over whatever timescale you're prepared to be invested for). The problem with Asterand is that confidence has now sunk very low through lack of news through this protracted "formal sales process", and we're all bandying about possible scenarios and values based more on our fear and emotions than on any real knowledge. Whatever shares anyone is holding are currently worth 4.25p each (unless you have a very large holding in which case realising the full 4.25p would be difficult/unlikely). The graph shows that the price has been slipping but on a curved path which appears to be levelling. Whether that will remain consistent is anyone's guess and yes the shares may yet halve and also potentially the company with its debt burden could go bust. Equally there is still a chance (who knows how much of a chance) of some sort of takeover (although as I've said many times now I think a full takeover is looking very unlikely now), partial takeover, join venture, sales of products/licences or whatever. I'm over-exposed here and would be taking a big loss if I sold now and almost certainly wouldn't get the full 4.25p, but, I've long since made a decision to stick it out to the end with this one. The looming results and their effect on the SP is worrying for certain, and whilst there might be an update on the sale process included with them it would seem unlikely that they would coincide with the ultimate news of a transaction - but who knows. Taking the emotion decision making out of share dealing is one of the hardest things I've ever known.

Judging by its last "biggest ever contract" RNS and reaction to today's so far it look like this share doesn't move on contract news but soars on good results. Surprised no-one is buying though.

Don't you just hate mobile phone auto spelling correction!!!

I think if they thought good news was coming they would either raise the ask quite a lot, or, lower the bid quite a lot to trigger stop losses, but all they did was lower both by one notch. Maybe nothing to it, or maybe just wanting to keep the appearance of a slow trickle downwards going. My worry about a partial deal is that it may mean nothing more than a slight treating of the sp but I continue to hold in hope.

Bb talk is precisely that. If they knew anything they'd be topping up like crazy and it would already be at 5p. Generally the bigger the talk on bbs the higher the likelihood of the sp dropping in my experience. As for std its just a case of patience in my view. No knowing where its going to go.

MMs have dropped the Ask and Bid for no apparent reason. Nesty, a while back you were saying 15 to 20p but no more than 20p because of debt. What has changed apart from elapsed time? I still don't believe a full takeover is on the cards here as we should have had news of a preferred bidder undertaking due diligence before making a formal offer if that was the case. No-one has been reported as having expressed an interesting in making an offer for the total shareholding. Since there has been no news that all talks have broken down I can only assume that there is still a good possibility of a partial deal being discussed such as purchase of part of the business or some of its products/licences etc., or potential joint venture arrangement.

I'm confused... looking at the transactions these had an Ask of 0.95 a couple of weeks ago so if you'd bought at 0.3 you could have banked more than 200% profit here too. What have I missed?

By my calculations they have only dropped 2.2% since yesterday's close

Hopefully that has to help negotiations at least

Note the last RNS stated that the BoD were confident that a "transaction" would still take place. They quite pointedly didn't call it a takeover.

For a T/O deal to be being done we'd have had an RNS informing that a named interested party had expressed an interest in making an offer, and/or that a preferred named bidder had been identified and was undertaking due diligence, and that there was a new deadline for them to make an offer or withdraw. Since we've had none of these, and no news that discussions have fallen through either I can only assume that discussions continue but based on something other than a full T/O, such as a partial takeover or merger or join venture, or purchase of product rights, or IPR etc.

I'm sure if you hunt long and hard enough in the darkest corners of Aims you'll find a share that's had one buy and zero sells (or vice versa). Top that for a ratio! lol

It just means you got it below the midpoint between Bid and Ask (i.e. below the SP) so in theory you did well, but depends on what games the MM's were playing. Anyway a "buy" or a "sell" is just an interpretation of the transaction based on the price compared to the SP at the time and not a definitive statement of which way the money flowed.

I spoke to them on the phone about 3 weeks ago. Was told way more than I could possibly retain about what was going on. Long and short of it was that they should have been a couple of weeks away from getting the merger/reverse takeover all sorted (although admitted they'd thought they were only a couple of weeks away several times before only to encounter further delays and complications) but that re-listing on AIM would probably be delayed for some time after that. However I see some strange transactions on 13th Feb and that Bid and Ask prices are now being shown on here and a value given for my shares in my Portfolio (only on here not at my broker's site) so whether any of that indicates progress I'm not sure.