Member Info for thewakokid

Camkite,

Never a truer word spoken (written I mean!).

I am still busy researching the company but so far, so good.

All IMHO.

TWK

Oh I wish that I were.

Nope, just quoting Shakin Stevens and "This Old House" - thought it apt in the context of F98's earlier analogy.

TWK - riding with Doc Holliday

This ole house is getting shaky
This ole house is getting old
This ole house lets in the rain
This ole house lets in the cold
Oh his knees are a getting chilly
But he feels no fear nor pain
Cause he seeks a new tomorrow
Through a golden window pain

Ain't got time to fix the shingles
Ain't got time to fix the floor
Ain't got time to oil the hinges
Nor to mend no window panes
Ain't gonna need this house no longer
He's getting ready to meet his fate

................... of a tree shake before the end of today?

Whatever, it is always great to see PIs making a profit - just wish I had invested sooner. But hey ho.

TWK

Daz,

Good to hear that you do see potential upside!

TWK

I stand corrected (and humbled) Daz.

Note to self - check numbers more closely!

Annual accounts are often an interesting read for anyone with insomnia. Not so KOD's IMHO.

The overall impression I got from reading the report, and I may be badly wrong of course, is of a conservatively run pragmatic company not prone to wild or fanciful forecasts. To me that is really important in the context not only of AIM but also mining - and especially in a developing mineral sector.

Buried in the middle of the report (pun fully intended) is an analysis of the cost of concentrate produced (to two decimal places), including transportation costs, royalties and fees. It arrives at a figure of $431/tonne (rounded).

Of course, this is only an estimate and, ignoring other potential impacts on cost e.g. geo-political, there is therefore likely to be a difference between the estimate and reality when that day eventually arrives. But which way - up or down - and by how much?

Looked at another way, if the market price was say $600/tonne (not an unreasonable base line price given prices over the last 12 months), the production cost estimate would have to be out by 40% the wrong way before losses were incurred.

Lots of ifs and buts and unknowns ahead (equals risk) but, for me, the fundamental premise for the lithium project seems solid. But I may be wrong and so please DYOR etc.

TWK

Just to say that I am still learning about Mali, KOD, lithium and gold too.

I always go away and think carefully about all the comments made by posters on this BB, and I am grateful for all opinions.

So far, I have not given up on an investment, however modest it might be (funds are limited), in KOD. Far from it. Right at this point in time, I believe that it is about picking the right moment to invest rather than whether to or not.

I may be wrong, I often am - my long-suffering wife will confirm that!, but there is something about KOD that reminds me of Dominion Petroleum, where a good friend of mine advised me to invest. I trebled my investment - and it paid for a week at Center Parcs (other holiday destinations are available!!). He used his profit to move to a bigger house. Such is life.

I was told that the spread is a good indicator of how the MMs are viewing things e.g. a big spread means they they want to sell but don'[t want to buy. Currently 14.29% .............................................

As I have said, I am a newbie to KOB.

What I would say is that that it seems to me, and I may well be very badly wrong, that the SP is being played and has little or nothing to do with the fundamentals and reality; but it is exploiting PI sentiment - and that we are being played like a fish.

I was invested in Dominion Petroleum some years ago and there are similarities here. A little guy, with very valuable assets and the guts, foresight and determination to move it forward, was bullied out of its position. Thankfully I did OK but I never forgot how "the market" manipulated things such that a lot of PI's either lost money or didn't get fairly rewarded.

As others have said before me, AIM is brutal. One day, perhaps one day, the Wild West of AIM will be tamed by Wyatt Earp.

It is sometimes worth remembering that there is always someone that is worse off than oneself.

Take Snow White for example. Come Monday, she is going to have to get rid of two of the dwarfs. Apparently redundancy consultations started this afternoon.

Sneezy is a cert to get the boot - for obvious reasons. And it is neck and neck between Dopey and Grumpy as being the other one to join him on the dole.

As I said, there is always someone else worse off.

I may be being naive but, if someone thought that there was material value in a particular company and there was no particular reason for the SP to fall significantly after a justified rise e.g. a positive announcement, and they could influence the SP (MMs?) , would it not pay them to walk the SP down, hoover up (there are other similar vacuum cleaners available!) shares at a discount and then let the SP go back up to where the wider market thinks it ought to be?

As I say, I may be being naive - or cynical I suppose.

From my research to date, KOD has solid fundamentals but the risk as far as I can tell (I am new to this company and so please treat that comment with caution) is in the company being able to execute the project without being mugged first.

All IMHO.

AIM investing is all about filling something.
Its either filling your boots or filling your pants!
I'm not invested yet but I sincerely hope that those who are benefit from this current rise.

Continuing my research, I found S&P Global Market Intelligence.

It reports that, in 2019, the total cost (including transport and royalties) of producing a tonne of hard-rock concentrate was between $1,900 and $3,175/tonne. The selling price range was reported as between $3,250 and $5,500/tonne.

So, based on this, depending upon where the selling price is at any one time, it is indeed possible that mining will not be profitable - but that applies to any mining operation; unless one party exerts significant control over supply such as in the diamond mining sector.

This was a global overview and so it should be treated with appropriate caution in regards KOD.

Any way, I am going to be buying people batteries for Christmas this year - every little helps as Tesco would say!

I took no offence whatsoever from Chesh's reference to "our kid". In fact it made me smile.

Continuing with my research!

Thank you Chesh.

Note to self - still lots to learn

Is there another way to look at this, albeit a simplistic one I accept?

8 year LOM
Assume a total £165 million post tax profit (rather than it being the NPV) = £20.6 million/annum income
Market cap - £12 million

So, someone with £12 million to spare could, right now, buy a company that could generate £20.6 million every year for 8 years.

And you might get to meet Elon Musk at some point too!!

:)

I am busy DMOR on KOD but would really appreciate some insight from people that know more than me.

Looking at the August 2020 presentation, the Bougouni lithium project has a potential post tax NPV of 1.5p/share - 2p/share pre tax. Currently there is no indication of what the gold mine projects might be worth.

To me, that seems to say that the SP should be between 1.5p and 2p - assuming the lithium production and selling price predictions come good and that there is no share dilution down the line.

That would leave the SP upside being the gold mine opportunities.

TWK

Was once told that this was MMs communicating through a code