Member Info for TheTrotsky

But the special dividend amounted to c7% of NWG's value. So, although tonight's closing price is below the breakeven price of c252p (after adjusting for the special dividend) based on Friday's close, it's really not too bad an outcome. Yes, the share price has declined from its recent peak of c263p in old money (c261p in new money after adjusting for the ordinary and the special dividends) but that's down to external factors that are affecting the whole market at the moment.

Not sure what tomorrow holds. The UK markets opened surprisingly strong considering this morning considering how other market faired yesterday (probably because of the rebound in Asia overnight) but weakened later in the day once the US markets opened. It'll be interesting to see how NWG fairs tomorrow. Personally, I wouldn't be too surprised to see the share price re-testing today's lows (that's what happened after the AV consolidation) before settling at or above 250p later this week (assuming that there are no further external shocks).

I would have bought in before tonight's close if AJ Bell had got their house in order and may still miss the boat if they don't pull their finger out!

Excellent video. Very informative

I believe interactive investor is trading and has been since around 10am, if not before. If you enter the ticker in the buy/sell box it says the ticker isn't recognised but if you hit "Enter" anyway the new stock appears available to trade! I haven't tried executing an order (I only have a few hundered in that account at present) but I believe it should process. I believe that there is a glitch in their software (should recognise the ticker if it recognises the new stock); I had the same problem with AV when it consolidated.

AJ Bell, on the other hand, is most definitely not trading.

Still unable to trade on AJ Bell and there was me thinking that AJ Bell was supposed to be one of the "elite"online brokers; not impressed.

Ignore that. II was saying the ticker wasn't recognised when I typed it in but when I pressed enter anyway the new stock came up! Not much use to me because all my available funds are in AJ Bell. They are blaming delays with their custodian and "hope" to have the shares available to trade later today! I've given them a piece of my mind ;-)

Inflationbuster, how did you trade with ii? The stock isn't showing on my ii account as available to trade.

Don't know about anybody else's brokers but I'm unable to trade NWG online at AJ Bell this morning. They've not updated their systems to allow investors to buy/sell yet.

Inflationbuster, you are correct that, if you have spare cash, you could buy additional shares but this assumes that you have the spare cash and that the brokers implement the share changes before the markets open. We'll have to wait and see but in AV's case HL were the only online broker, as far as I am aware, that was fully operational from the open. Some of the other online brokers took a couple of hours to implement the necessary changes; some took a few days or more. Also, in AV's case the shareholders were due to receive their capital returns on the same day as the consolidation, so could have, in principle, reinvested immediately but, in reality, most didn't receive their money until midday if they were lucky (I believe Halifax took a week to credit the proceeds). Depending on your broker, it may take a few hours for PIs to be able to buy NWG if they have the spare cash.

I would add that all the main Asian markets finished 1-2% in the red this morning and that all the main European markets are currently 1-1.5% in the red. Perhaps the US markets, which have yet to open, may yet save the day but, as it stands, it doesn't augur well for the UK markets tomorrow morning. This will likely have an impact on NWG's share price (but that would have been true in any event).

You're splitting hairs. Apart from the tax treatment, there isn't much, in principle, different between a special dividend and a capital return from a shareholder's perspective (it may affect what the shareholders might be entitled to in a winding up but, for the most part, that's generally irrelevant). In reality the special dividend NWG is paying isn't actually so large as to warrant a consolidation (it's not mandatory). As I understand, it's normal practise to undertake a conolidation if a company distributes more than 10% of its value by way of a special dividend. NWG's special dividend represents less than 7% of the closing share price as of Friday. NWG's consolidation is purely cosmetic and wasn't necessary. We will have to wait and see what happens tomorrow morning but I think the opening price will be below 250p and the share price may dip below 240p at some point in part because of, in my view, the unnecessary consolidation. The last few weeks we have seen shares prices dropping below their expected ex-dividend price and I don't believe that NWG will prove immune to what's been happening in the wider market of late. NWG hasn't faired too badly the last few weeks but the gloves will be off tomorrow morning and I think the MMs will come out to play like they did with AV and numerous other consolidations before. It's the mix of special dividend and consolidation that gives the MMs the opportunity plus the fact that many PIs may be locked out of their broker accounts initially and therefore unable to reinvest their special dividends.

Based on tonight's closing price and the fact that NWG goes ex-special dividend on Tuesday, the opening price for the new shares on Tuesday, ignoring any other external factors, ought to be c252p but, based on what happened to AV, I wouldn't be wholly surprised if the opening share price was at or around c240p (about 5% below) simply because of PIs not having done the maths, getting confused (and agitated) by the consolidation and MMs trying to panic them into selling on the cheap. On top of that you have to factor in the market's response to Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole this afternoon; it's quite likely that the whole market will be a bit skittish come Tuesday (especially if other markets that are open on Monday extend this afternoon's downward trend).

Over on the AV bb people were complaining for weeks/months because they didn't understand the consolidation process and were convinced that they'd been short-changed. Perhaps PIs here, unlike AV, will be mollified by NWG doing a special dividend rather than a capital redemption (albeit that apart from being treated as a capital receipt rather than an income receipt for tax pruposes a capital redemption is, for all pratical purposes, just a glorified special dividend by another name).

Just in case anybody thinks I'm sitting here feeling overly pleased with myself for selling up at c261p earlier this week and revelling at the prospect that the share price might open as low as c240p on Tuesday, I should just say that I was too clever for my own boots. On Wednesday I got itchy feet and decided to buy PHNX cum-dividend with the proceeds from my NWG share sale, with a view to pocketing its c25p dividend and then (hopefully) selling ex-dividend at a net overall profit (sale proceeds plus dividend less purchase cost) and reinvest back here on Tuesday/Wednesday once the dust had settled. I was c6p per share to the good on PHNX earlier this afternoon but am now c4p per share out of pocket thanks to Jay Powell ;-( As I say, you pays your money and you takes your chances. It may be damage limitation for me come next Tuesday ;-(

Clued, The DEC P+L and B/S are prepared under IFRS and are (very) misleading because of the hedging transactions that DEC has entered into.

As is common in the oil and gas industry, DEC has entered into hedge contracts with third parties to fix the price it receives for its future oil and gas production for the next 5+ years (there is some "free float" but DEC usually looks to actively hedge 80%+ of its annual production to guarantee its future cash flows). Those hedged prices are currently below the spot rate, which essentially means that DEC will have to pay their hedge counterparty the difference bewteen the spot rate that they actually sell their oil and gas and the agreed hedge price (conversely, if the spot rate should fall below the hedge price in the future then the hedge counterparty would have to pay DEC the difference).

Although the hedge prices are above DEC's costs of production (it's a profitable company in every conventional sense), IFRS requires DEC to recognise (in advance) the potential income it has foregone on its expected future hedged production (it's a non-cash expense). As a result, DEC has incurred significant IFRS losses in the last two years despite this being income DEC never expected or budgeted to receive (it's the income DEC has foregone to secure it's future cash flows and ensure that it can meet all of its financial commitments). Despite what the accounting might otherwise imply, DEC is actually a financially prudent, and very well run, oil and gas company.

IFRS was intended to make financial accounts easier for the layman to understand but often the reality is quite the opposite and DEC has to produce a volume of additional information in its accounts to try and counter the misconception given by the IFRS accounting treatment (which rather begs the question whether IFRS is achieving its objective).

Eighteight88, It actually can depend on your broker. Technically the new shares do become available to trade at 8am on Tuesday but some brokers are (a lot) slower than others to update their systems (although the ticker doesn't change the nominal value of the shares changes and their systems have to be updated to reflect this).

When AV did their consolidation I wasn't able to buy AV shares online at interactive investor until aorund 10am (although, when I spoke to them, they insisted that you could trade from 8am or at least over the phone). Hargreaves Lansdown were apparently up and running from 8am but some other online brokers took several days to update their systems (I think one person on the AV bb wasn't able to trade for a week; can't remember the name of the broker).

Also, be aware that it can take several days for your existing holdings to be updated and you may not be able to sell until this has been completed. Again, the timeframe can vary from broker to broker.

Oilhearty, To be honest I'm not quite sure because NWG are using intermediate ordinary shares (I can't recollect ever seeing this before) but, in any event, you will be rounded down.

Step 1, every 14 existing ordinary shares of £1 each are to be consolidated into one intermediate ordinary share of £14 each (so your 15,347 existing ordinary shares of £1 each will become 1,096 intermediate ordinary shares of £14 each; the residual 0.214 of an intermediate ordinary share of £14 each which will be dealt with at Step 3). These intermediate ordinary shares of £14 each are an ephemeral legal creation and will never be issued or traded.

Step 2, every intermediate ordinary share of £14 each will then be immediately thereafter be subdivided into 13 ordinary shares of £1.07692307692307 each (so your theoretical 1,096 intermediate ordinary shares of £14 each will then become 14,248 ordinary shares of £1.07692307692307 each.

Step 3, your residual 0.214 of an intermediate ordinary share of £14 each should be converted into a theoretical entitlement to 2.782 ordinary shares of £1.07692307692307 each and lumped to gether with everybody elses "rump" entitlements and sold on the market by NWG. NWG proposes to return the proceeds of sale, after dealing costs, to you at the same time as it pays the ordinary and special dividends PROVIDED your proceeds of sale, after dealing costs, exceed £5 (based on today's close and accounting for the special dividend your net proceeds ought to exceed £5 - I would estimate somewhere in the region of £6.50 before dealing costs).

This "complexity" was part of the reason why I decided to sell earlier this week. The AV consolidation was not cosmetic and the share price still went haywire for the first couple of days after the new shares were issued; the MMs took full advantage of PIs confusion and misunderstandings. I don't see NWG's consolidation being any different (and this is a purely cosmetic consolidation - the special dividend is large but not so large as to warrant a consolidatio in my view); in the short term I fully expect the MMs to manipulate the share price down for the first few trading days next week to get some "cheap" shares (in AV's case they managed to drop the share price about 5% below its theroretical consolidation price by feeding on some PIs doubts and paranoia).

MikeM14, Say I sold 1,400 shares at 261p earlier this week. In doing so, I would have realised c£3,644 after dealing costs but will have foregone both the ordinary and special dividends, totalling c£284 (1,400 x 20.3p). Assuming that there were no other external factors affecting the NWG share price between my date of sale and the consolidation next Tueday, then one would expect the old shares to trade at 240.7p immediately before consolidation (261p - 20.3p) and the new shares to trade at c259.2p immediately after consolidation (14/13 x x 240.7p). Therefore, allowing for stamp duty at 0.5% and dealing costs, I would need to be able to buy 1,400 new shares post consolidation at c258p to be at no gain no loss (1,400 x 1.005 x 258p + £10 = c£3,640).

MikeS02, I totally agree, I may have missed the boat. At the moment, the current share price is supporting my strategy but that might all change come next Tuesday. You pays your money and you take your chances ;-) I would very be surprised if they changed the conversion ratio at this late date (the new shares have to be issued next Tuesday) and, in any event, the conversion ratio is mostly irrelevant and merely a cosmetic exercise (whether it's 14:13 or 15:14 should theoretically only affect the opening price of the new shares by c1p). Personally, I don't think anything the CEO says today is going to sway the market - the whole sector is in a downward trend at the moment and neither broker recommendations or CEO positivity is going to change the market view at present.

The shares go ex-ordinary dividend tomorrow (25 August), so one would normally expect tomorrow's opening share price to be 3.5p down on tonight's close all other factors being equal. However, despite the ordinary and special dividends having the same record date (26 August), the shares don't go ex-special dividend until 30 August (next Tuesday), at the same time as the shares are due to be consolidated on a 14 :13 new basis (assuming it's approved at tomorrow's AGM). I'm really not a fan of this cosmetic consolidation or the staggered ex-dividend dates; it creates plenty of opportunity for confusion and the MMs thrive on PI's confusion.

So, by my take, you should be able to buy the shares on Friday (26 August) and still be entitled to the 16.8p special dividend but I rather suspect that there are going to be quite a lot of confused PIs between now and next Tuesday and I wouldn't be wholly surprised to see some PIs selling tomorrow/Friday in the mistaken expectation of still being entitled to the special dividend. It would seem too good an opportunity to miss for the MMs to try and drive the share price down over the next few days to try and pick up some cum-special dividend shares on the cheap before Friday's close.

Given the prospective uncertainty, I sold my shares earlier this week at just over 261p with a view to buying back once the dust has settled. By my reckoning, if I can buy back the same number of new shares as I originally held for 258p or less then I'm quids in (after factoring in stamp duty and dealing charges). However, if confusion does set in and the MMs play their games before Friday's close, then there may well be an opportunity to get back in a fair bit cheaper before Friday's close and still bag the special dividend.

I'm not suggesting that the share price could (or should) dip below 240p before Friday's close but, if it did, it could be an "interesting" opportunity - assuming it's the MMs playing their games and not just a sign of further general market malaise (the general market has been on a downward trajectory since 18 August and there's still been no rebound). If the general market is up over the next few days whilst NWG is down (say) 15-20p then it might be a very good opportunity to buy before Friday's close with a good prospect of a rebound next week (all other facotrs being equal) once the consolidation is done and dusted (and not a time to panic sell if you are still holding). However, if the general market is down and NWG is down, then I think I'd wait until after the consolidation before dipping my toes back into NWG again.

I believe that he's taken net 931,579 shares. My reading of the RNS is that 2,868,421 shares have (effectively) been sold to settle the net exercise cost (84pps) and withholding taxes

It's difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff but my take is as follows:
- The general UK fishing tackle market has declined;
- ANG is holding it's own (it appears to have gained market share to maintain UK sales at c£37m YoY);
- The decline in UK online sales has been matched by an increase in UK retail sales;
- The shift from online to retail is not dissimilar to that being seen in the fashion industry;
- Increases in online sales at the expense of retail during Covid have proven to be transient;
- We are now likely to revert back to pre-Covid online vs retail trends;
- There is still demand for retail outlets despite prices generally being higher;
- Sales are not presently being overly impacted by supply problems (current problems are more demand related);
- Margins are likely to be squeezed by weak demand (more difficult to pass on rising costs);
- The heatwave and drought are likely to impact UK demand further in Q3 (at least);
- European sales are still likely to grow despite the heatwave and drought in mainland Europe (gaining share); and
- But short/medium term European sales growth is likely to be less than previously expected (smaller cake)

Clearly both the economic turmoil and climate conditions are having an impact on current demand. However, beyond the initial outlay on fishing equipment, angling is one of the cheaper pastimes. I don't think that participation and demand are going to completely fall of a cliff (as economic pressures mount I think people will increasingly want cheap distractions) but big ticket sales are going to become harder to come by. Time to just batten down the hatches and manage costs. Net cash is still reasonable and good opportunities to acquire additional strategic retail outlets might afford themselves (allowing ANG to further benefit from economies of scale).

Not a clue. UK dividends aren't subject to a tax deduction at source for a UK taxpayer (UK dividends are paid gross and any income tax due on UK dividends received outside an ISA/SIPP is payable under self-assessment).

Retireby40, I think your incorrect about the RNS. Each drawdown requires an additional issue of new warrants at a price to be determined by the (average) VWAP share price for the previous 5 days' trading. DVRG would need to notify the market of the number of warrants issued and the reference price.