RE: Just for information12 Sep 2022 20:22
Mike, I think your theory is off the mark. The 52-week high was cum-dividends, so there is no logic in suggesting that £2.83 represents a corresponding post-consolidation high but I'm sure the market has spotted the opportunity to encourage PIs into that line of thinking and to reinvest their dividends on Friday (before they drop the share price next week).
Assuming there had been no consolidation, I'd have expected a total dividend for the current financial year of c12.25p (a 17% increase on prior year) and adjusting for the consolidation that would would equate to c13.20p, currently putting NWG on a dividend yield of c4.9%. In my view, based on the current share prices of other high yielding shares such as the insurers and pension providers, that dividend yield in the present market would suggest that the market is pricing in the expectation that NWG will be able to significantly grow its dividend again in FY23 (probably by a corresponding amount, or more, than the current year) and a dividend of c15.45p would, for example, put NWG on a forward dividend yield of c5.7%. Personally, I think that NWG has probably reached the top of its price range for the time being without any further dividend guidance for this year and next. I'm in for the long term and won't be selling but I wouldn't be too surprised to see some price correction in the next few weeks. I appreciate that brokers now have targets north of 300p but shares rarely, if ever, move up (or down) in a straight line and those targets could begin to tumble if the expected recession begins to bite.
All in all, I'd have much preferred to have the opportunity to invest my dividends in the 240s than the 280s.