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Why this RNS is a "Triple Win"

The news just shared does three specific things for the share price:

Immediate Liquidity: ECR doesn't have to wait weeks for a buyer. They dig it, the offtake partner takes it, and ECR gets paid (usually within 48–72 hours).

Working Capital: Sometimes these partners provide "pre-payment" or "advances" on gold still in the ground. This would mean ECR never has to do another "placing" (dilution) again.

The Insurance "Asset" Floor: By proving the gear is worth A$1.9m, they have given the market a reason not to let the stock fall back below 0.30p. Even if they never found gold, the "scrap value" of the company has just gone up.

In the world of junior gold miners like ECR, an offtake agreement isn't usually a fixed "dollar per ounce" price. Instead, it’s a formula based on the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) Spot Price.

With gold currently trading at that historic US$4,988/oz level, the pricing structure is the most important part of your investment "moat."

The Typical "Junior" Formula

Because ECR is producing unrefined gold (alluvial gold/doré bars) rather than 99.9% pure bullion, the offtake partner won't pay the full spot price. You should expect a formula that looks like this:

Price = (Spot Price × % Purity) - (Refining Charges + Transport/Insurance)

Payability: Usually, a refinery will pay ECR for 98% to 99.5% of the gold content.

The "Discount": In Australia, a typical small-scale offtake for alluvial gold usually nets the miner about 96% to 98% of the spot value after all fees are deducted.

When you look at this pipeline alongside a £18m–£20m market cap, the disconnect is obvious:

Most Phase 3 biotechs trade at £100m–£300m.

Solvonis is being valued like a discovery-stage company, even though they have a Phase 3 trial that is largely taxpayer-funded.

My Take: The market is currently ignoring the SVN-001 Phase 3 because "Phase 3 takes time," and it's ignoring the SVN-015/SDN-14 because it's "early stage." Once the Q1 Lead Candidate Selection (from that AI discovery engine) is announced, it acts as the bridge that proves the whole pipeline is moving forward.

This is a "sum-of-the-parts" play. Even if you value SVN-001 at just £50m and the rest of the pipeline at £20m, the stock should be trading at 3x-4x its current price.

Unless there’s a genuinely dramatic intervention, 28p looks very likely to be the final outcome for SOLG.

It’s worth remembering that 28p is already the sweetened price. The bid history matters:

Initial approach (Nov): rejected

26p bid (late Nov): rejected

28p bid (Dec): accepted and unanimously recommended

At this stage, Jiangxi Copper has already paid up to secure board support and, critically, backing from BHP and Newmont. With those blocking stakes aligned, there’s little incentive to add anything further.

The only realistic routes above 28p would be:

A credible activist push threatening the vote (unlikely with ~41% already locked in), or

A true white knight counter-bid, which would need to be meaningfully higher (32p+). Given BHP/Newmont have effectively signalled they’re happy at 28p, that looks a very tall order.

The market is also telling a story. SOLG trading below 28p suggests no expectation of a higher offer — just discounting for time and deal risk until completion.

Bottom line: plan on 28p. Anything extra from here would be a genuine surprise, not something to base an investment case on.

Now now, calm down BOTZ

Ok so you guys saying NON RISKS TO CONSIDER?

Just to add some perspective on Raglan: the project should start generating some revenue soon from the alluvial creeks, which is great for early cashflow. That said, the licence renewal process is coming up quickly (March 2027), and that involves environmental approvals, paperwork, and engagement with Queensland authorities — all of which will require time and some capital.

Even with early revenue from the wash plant, shareholders should be aware that additional funding may be needed to cover renewal costs and any move toward larger-scale or hard-rock operations. Early cashflow helps, but the financial and operational realities remain important.

In short, Raglan has strong potential, but the near-term funding strategy will be key to turning that potential into consistent production and returns.

One of the biggest looming questions for Raglan (ML 3665) isn’t just the geology — it’s the money needed to extend the mining licence before the March 2027 expiry.

Renewing a mining lease in Queensland isn’t automatic, and while the government is generally supportive of juniors that bring production and jobs, there are real costs and workstreams that have to be factored in — especially with only ~15 months before expiry.

Here are the main areas that will require funding:

1. Licence Renewal Fees & Documentation

The renewal process in QLD requires formal application fees, statutory documentation, and environmental audits. These can run into tens of thousands of dollars in professional and government fees just to lodge correctly.

2. Environmental Baseline and Compliance Work

Environmental reports — ground water, erosion, biodiversity, cultural heritage surveys — are not cheap. Even if Raglan already has some documentation, renewal usually means updated studies and potential mitigation plans. This often involves external consultants and field teams, typically £100k+ depending on scope.

3. Community & Regulatory Engagement

Part of renewal is engaging with local authorities, landholders, and regulatory bodies. While not a direct licence fee, the consultant and legal costs involved can add up quickly if formal submissions, response comms, or hearings are required.

4. Infrastructure & Access Costs

Although the site has a turnkey wash plant, licence renewal often requires proof of operational readiness — this includes access road assessments, site condition reports, compliance checks, and potentially site rehabilitation budgeting. These logistics costs can also run into tens of thousands.

5. Contingency / Risk Allowance

Renewals often uncover unexpected requirements — additional tests, further consultations, or updated modelling — so a realistic budget would include a contingency buffer (often 15–25% of the planned spend).

When you add it all up, even before moving to larger-scale alluvial operations — let alone pursuing hard-rock exploration — ECR will likely need substantial funding beyond its current £871k cash position to confidently renew the ML and keep the project progressing.

Whether that comes from dilution via capital raising, a JV partner, asset-level financing, or another structure is going to be one of the key strategic discussions for shareholders over the coming months.

The upside remains clear — the licence, infrastructure, and creek positions are strategically valuable — but the renewal cost and timing risk is very real and needs to be factored into any investment view.

That production quote assumes uninterrupted operations, which is the big unknown here. One risk that doesn’t get talked about much is flooding. There’s no weather station on the Raglan site itself, but the surrounding area has extensive historical flood data from council and state sources. Fire Creek Road, Spring Creek, Raglan Creek, Mount Holly, Gentle Annie Road, Yarwun, Walterhall and even sections of the Bruce Highway have all recorded flooding events over time. In other words, the entire district is flood-prone.

That doesn’t mean Raglan can’t work, but it does mean seasonal downtime, access issues and damage risk need to be factored into any production or cashflow assumptions. Alluvial projects near creek systems tend to look great on paper, but weather can very quickly become the gating factor. Worth keeping this in mind when modelling how “easy” or consistent that headline throughput might really be.

Some useful boots-on-the-ground info has come out on Raglan (ML 3665) and it highlights both the opportunity and the funding risk ahead for ECR. The licence expires March 2027, which likely explains why it was picked up cheaply (A$1.01m, essentially covering plant and kit). Renewal should be achievable, especially with QLD currently supportive of juniors, but it still means environmental work, paperwork and momentum are needed within the next 6–12 months.

Strategically, starting in the creeks (5 Mile Creek etc.) makes sense for near-term alluvial cash flow and potentially tracking gold back to a hard-rock source, which would obviously be transformational. However, even with a turnkey wash plant on site, scaling operations, licence renewal and any move toward hard-rock exploration will almost certainly require more capital than ECR currently has.

Feels like the big question is whether near-term funding becomes the key risk here (dilution vs JV vs asset-level financing), despite the geological upside. Interested to hear how others see it.

So, this week at some point up to Friday 5pm we either get a WHITE KNIGHT or 28p per stock.

Half a league, half a league,

Half a league onward,

All through the fray of bids

Rode the six hundred.

“Forward, the shareholders!

Charge for the gains!” they said:

Through the fray of bids

Rode the six hundred.

“Forward, the shareholders!”

Was there an investor dismay’d?

Not though the market shook,

And uncertainty play’d;

Theirs not to make reply,

Theirs not to reason why,

Theirs but to hold and hope:

Into the fray of bids

Rode the six hundred.

Rumours to right of them,

Rumours to left of them,

Rumours in front of them

Volley’d and thunder’d;

Storm’d at with chatter and news,

Boldly they rode and watched,

Into the jaws of risk,

Toward the White Knight’s call

Rode the six hundred.

Hark! A White Knight rides at last,

From the shadows they appear;

A bid to lift the weary hearts,

And bring the price up clear.

Cheers from the holders rise,

Hope shines in anxious eyes,

Boldly they ride and watch,

The White Knight leads the charge,

Rode the six hundred.

Someone bought £1m worth of stocks here - in one trade - who was that?

Well we can always have hope for a White Knight here - lets see - all I know is that it could happen - if not, then yeah 28p.

exciting times - privately I am hoping for a powerful White Knight to come galloping in on a massive white horse blazing with Light!

I still think the price action and the silence point to something more going on here. If JCC had everything neatly wrapped up, we’d likely have seen a firm move by now. Instead, the share price is holding just below the offer level and everyone seems to be waiting. To me, that suggests JCC knows there could be another party circling and they don’t want to show their hand too early. It feels like a classic game of patience — keep options open, watch who blinks first. That’s why I wouldn’t rule out a White Knight yet; Cascabel is too big and too strategic for this to be a one-horse race....

What I find particularly interesting is the way the Letters of Intent are being used here. On the surface, BHP and Newmont signing up at 28p looks supportive and cooperative, almost like they’re firmly backing the current deal. But LOIs are rarely as simple as they appear. Most include a fiduciary out, which means if a higher offer comes along, they’re perfectly entitled to step away and accept a better price. In that sense, the LOIs feel less like a full commitment and more like a strategic holding position — staying close to the process, keeping visibility, and remaining free to act if a white knight emerges. It’s very much a “stay in the room and keep options open” move, and that alone makes the next couple of weeks worth watching closely.

Would have to be a knock out blow to dislodge those commitments at 28p should a white knight come to the party in 2026

So if JCC confirm 28p on 26th and majority shareholders confirm agreement we could still get a white knight in the new year?

Today is a day for steady nerves. The paperwork flurry is almost over, and we are now in the final 5 trading days of this entire saga.

Stackhigh - M&A bankers work Saturdays too

If a White Knight wants to kill the JCC deal, they will likely wait until JCC has done all the hard work, then swoop in with a 32p-35p "Knockout Bid" just before Christmas. But you guys are right they could come in later after 26th JCC bid or at same time - interesting times here. I’m confident that we have 28p in the bag at minimum