RE: Offer17 Dec 2025 20:12
A 35p bid would be a massive "war trumpet" in this battle, but it wouldn't necessarily knock Jinchuan (JCC) out for good. Instead, it would likely trigger a high-stakes auction that could push the price even higher.
Here is the strategic breakdown of what happens if a White Knight charges in with 35p:
1. It Shatters the "Lock-up"
The 40.7% of shareholders (including BHP, Newmont, and Nick Mather) have only provided "Non-Binding Letters of Intent" (LOIs).
The "Soft" Lock: Because these are non-binding, they are essentially "gentleman's agreements." Under the UK Takeover Code, if a "Superior Proposal" (usually defined as 10–15% higher) emerges, these shareholders have a fiduciary duty to their own investors to switch to the higher bid.
The 35p Trigger: A 35p bid is 25% higher than JCC’s 28p. This is more than enough to legally and ethically allow BHP and Newmont to tear up their letters to JCC and support the new Knight.
2. JCC’s "Right to Match" (The Counter-Attack)
JCC would not simply disappear. If a 35p bid arrives, JCC has two choices:
The Match: They can raise their own bid to 35p or 36p. As a state-backed entity with a 12.2% head start, they have "deep pockets."
The Retreat: They can walk away and take a "consolidation prize." Because they already own 12.2% of the company, if they sell their shares to the new Knight at 35p, they would make a massive profit on their original investment.
3. Why the Price "Plummeted" Today (The Reality Check)
The "plummet" to ~25p today, despite the 28p offer, is a sign of Market Exhaustion, not necessarily "bad news."
The RNS Flurry: Those 15+ RNS filings today were mostly "Opening Position Disclosures." They confirmed that the "Big Four" (BHP, Newmont, Maxit, Mather) are all currently pointing toward the 28p exit.
The Market’s Verdict: Traders are looking at that 40.7% block and thinking, "If the two biggest miners in the world (BHP/Newmont) are saying they'll take 28p, who am I to hope for 40p?"
The Selling: Speculators who bought in at 20p are "selling the news" and taking their profits now because they don't want to risk the deal collapsing or waiting until 2026 for the cash.
4. The "December 26" Ambush
A White Knight (like Gina Rinehart or Glencore) would be smartest to wait until the very last moment.
If they bid 35p today, JCC has a week to react.
If they launch an "Ambush RNS" on December 24th or 26th, they catch JCC during a holiday period when Beijing’s decision-makers might be slower to respond, creating maximum pressure.
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