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The good news re this stock is that the good news upcoming hasn't been priced in at all - thats my own opinion of course - and reduces the selling on the news likelihood

In this context, "hopeful" is not a sign of panic, but a mandatory legal and technical caveat for a company executing the final, make-or-break, de-risking test on a high-risk resource.

The underlying message is strong: "We have done all the preparation—rig retrieval, logging, water disposal—and are technically ready. We believe this is the right process to achieve the commercial rates, but we legally must wait for the data."

The tangible actions (buying the ESP, completing civils, starting wireline logging) speak louder than the cautious language in the comment section.

The reason Legal & General (L&G), a multi-billion pound asset manager, is making these relatively small purchases (around 785,000 shares) has to do with portfolio management, index tracking, and maximizing returns under the specific rules of a UK takeover bid.

Here is a breakdown of why they are buying:

1. Index Tracking and Fund Mandates (The Primary Reason)

L&G Asset Management is one of the world's largest managers of index funds (passive investing).

SolGold (SOLG) is a constituent of certain stock indices. For example, it is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is likely included in various FTSE indices that L&G's passive funds track.

The "Run-up" in Price: When a takeover bid is announced, the target company's share price (SolGold) almost always jumps up to or near the bid price (26p), and often exceeds it (as SolGold's price is currently around 31p) because the market expects a higher bid.

The Mandate to Track: If a fund's benchmark index has SolGold shares, L&G's fund managers are obligated to hold the correct proportional weight of that stock to minimize the "tracking error" between their fund's performance and the index's performance.

The small, consistent purchases are often their process for keeping their funds accurately weighted as they anticipate the final price of a potential deal. They are essentially managing their index exposure to capture the potential upside of a successful (and likely higher) offer.

2. Risk Arbitrage and Position Averaging

A second, more active reason is related to "risk arbitrage":

Guaranteed Floor: Since a bid is on the table, it creates a floor for the share price (the 26 pence offer). The market price (currently ~31p) reflects the expectation of a higher offer (e.g., 35p or 40p).

Averaging In: If L&G believes the eventual successful bid will be significantly higher than the price they bought at, they will make calculated purchases to increase their fund's overall profit from the deal.

They bought at ~30.5p. If the final offer is, for example, 35p, they will have locked in a 15% gain on that specific parcel of shares.

For a firm that manages billions, a 15% return on a £250,000 purchase is a guaranteed return that is simply part of their standard dealing strategy during a live takeover event.

3. Regulatory Obligation (The Reason for the Disclosure)

The reason you see these purchases publicly disclosed in the Form 8.3 filings is due to the UK Takeover Code.

When a company is officially in an "offer period," any party (like L&G) that holds 1% or more of the shares must disclose any dealing (buying or selling) by 3:30 p.m. on the business day following the trade.

This rule ensures transparency in the market and allows everyone to see which major investors are building or reducing their positions during the bid process.

It's natural to feel that way when expecting news that could be a significant catalyst, but 'no news this week is entirely in line with the company's stated timelines.'

The market is awaiting two key events, both of which were guided to happen 'in December':

1. Completion of the Raglan Acquisition: The last RNS (December 1st) stated that the Raglan acquisition documentation was "agreed in all material respects, with completion expected in December The seller still needed to finalize administrative elements outside the actual sale to maximize their tax relief. Since December has just begun (it's the end of the first week), the delay is not unexpected.

2. Blue Mountain Assay Results: The company stated these results are expected **"before mid-December."** This gives them another week or so before the market might start to grow impatient.

Key Takeaways on the Current Status

* No Negative Update: Crucially, there has been no RNS announcing a delay or issue with either the Raglan acquisition or the assay results. No news, in this context, simply means the administrative and laboratory processes are still running their course, as the company previously outlined.

* The Next Week is Critical: The next 5-10 trading days leading up to the middle of the month will be the key period. If the company fails to deliver one or both of these updates in the next week, that is when sentiment might start to waver.

* Production vs. Exploration: The market tends to be more patient with exploration results (like Lolworth), but is far less forgiving when there are delays to a near-term production story (Raglan/Blue Mountain) that involves generating cash flow.

In short, the company is still within its own stated timeline. The market may be holding its breath, but the 'major catalysts are still very much live' and due imminently.

My chips remain on the table just extended a couple of weeks. No worries mate.

Based on recent market analysis and the fundamental value of SolGold's assets, the chance that the takeover process will result in a complete withdrawal of bids is considered low.

While I cannot provide a certainty or guarantee, a detailed market analysis from a financial intelligence provider breaks down the potential outcomes, with "withdrawal" corresponding to a scenario where no firm offer materializes:

Standalone Development Path (Implied Withdrawal): 8% Probability

This scenario implies that both Jiangxi Copper and other interested parties (like BHP or Newmont) withdraw, forcing SolGold to pursue financing and development of its Cascabel project independently.

The high confidence that a takeover will proceed at a higher price is demonstrated by the higher probabilities assigned to the following scenarios:

Revised Higher Bid Scenario: 65% Probability (A higher offer from JCC)

White Knight Intervention: 25% Probability (A competing, premium bid from a Western major like BHP or Newmont)

Key Factors Reducing the Chance of Withdrawal

The primary reasons the market is anticipating a higher bid, rather than a withdrawal, are:

Strong Shareholder Commitment: JCC is already the largest shareholder with a 12.18% stake, followed closely by strategic rivals BHP (10.36%) and Newcrest International (10.3%). Their existing positions reflect a strong, strategic interest in the Cascabel asset.

Asset Value and Market Conditions: SolGold's flagship Cascabel project is considered a Tier 1 copper-gold asset. The rejected 26 pence offer significantly undervalued the project, which has an after-tax Net Present Value (NPV) of US$3.2 Billion based on old pricing. This value is reinforced by:

Current long-run consensus prices of US$4.50/lb for copper and US$3,000/oz for gold (which have not yet been integrated into the project's valuation).

The newly defined open-pittable resource at Tandayama, which is expected to improve the ability to finance and start the Cascabel development.

The Deadline: Under UK takeover rules, JCC must formally announce a firm intention to make an offer or declare that it is walking away by December 26, 2025. This deadline forces a decision and accelerates the process toward a resolution.

The takeover is no longer a simple bilateral negotiation, but a complex, time-compressed strategic battle for one of the world's most valuable undeveloped copper assets.

HP and Newmont's Position: Given their existing 10%+ stakes, they are now under enormous pressure to either make a competing bid or watch a major strategic asset fall into the hands of a competitor (JCC).

The Cascabel project is quantified as a "Top 10 undeveloped copper-gold deposit globally" with an estimated 11.8 million tonnes of copper resource—equivalent to over three years of China's current consumption. This scarcity makes it a non-negotiable strategic target.

Regarding the Raglan Wash Plant:

"Can the wash plant be temporarily reconfigured to produce a limited-edition 'ECR Gold Flake Cereal' for shareholders? We'd love to literally eat our gains!"

Regarding the Lolworth Silver Discovery:

"With the new silver grades, should the company start thinking about selling 'Lolworth Silver Bullion' for the fine dining industry, specifically for very fancy cutlery and the high-end tooth implant industry?"

Regarding the Team:

"For the operations team, which is moving 'very, very quickly,' are they rewarded with gold nuggets for hitting targets, or do they just get high-fives and a slice of vegemite toast?"

Regarding the A$75M Tax Loss Strategy:

"If we use all the tax losses, does the company get a celebratory tax-free party, and if so, can shareholders get an invite?"

Regarding the Potential Scale-Up:

"When they scale up to 24/7 operations, what is the plan for keeping the night shift energised? Do they use Queensland coffee, Bundaberg Rum, or is there a special gold-infused energy drink?"

YTD 101%

1 Year 85%

I really hope they are considering this option to spin out and repeat - fantastic idea!

And when this saga is over, what is the next big one to get in to?

Cant resist to hold on for more to come! :-)

That seems to indicate they are holding on to their stocks not cashing in for pay.

These revenues will re rate this stock in a major way

The announcement provides strong arguments to justify the rejection of the 26p bid, highlighting the immense value of the Cascabel project:

PFS Value: An independent Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) in February 2024 demonstrated an after-tax Net Present Value (NPV) of US$3.2 Billion (at an 8% discount rate), based on conservative consensus metal prices of US$1,750/oz gold and US$3.85/lb copper. This NPV was calculated using only 18% of the resource mined over the first 28 years.

Undervaluation Argument: The project has not been reassessed at current higher consensus prices (US$4.50/lb copper and US$3,000/oz gold). DGR's Chairman notes that prevailing gold prices are in excess of US$4,000/oz.

Tandayama Upside: SolGold recently announced the definition of potentially open pittable copper-gold resources at the Tandayama deposit, 3km north of Alpala. DGR expects the inclusion of Tandayama will further increase the NPV and IRR of Cascabel.

Regional Potential: SolGold holds 18 other world-class copper gold porphyry system targets over 89 granted concessions in Ecuador, which DGR believes present the opportunity for additional significant discoveries.

Plenty of buying then to offset the selling? I always wonder why people who do the funding are so desperate to offload immediately. Why would they bother the hassle for such small gain. Anyway - anyone know the vols over time to account for the 325m shares since the funding RNS?

The combination of the Raglan acquisition providing a rapid path to revenue, the low estimated operating costs, the high leverage from the A$75 million tax losses, and the confirmed exploration upside at Lolworth has certainly provided a lot of good news for us current shareholders.

The market's focus now shifts entirely to execution >> the closing of the Raglan deal and the confirmation of the gold grades in the upcoming assay results.

Wow that’s incredible. That would make it a self funded business. Would cover drilling plans etc - fingers crossed - only a 5 million market cap at the moment.