Member Info for thetriplestar

Spot on—and this is exactly why the "old" broker notes are starting to look like massive underestimates.

1. The Math doesn't lie: You’ve nailed the current reality. At US$2,000/day running costs and a gold price now pushing US$5,300/oz, we are looking at a break-even of roughly 0.38 ounces per day.

The "Old" View: 0.6oz/day (at $3,900 - $4,500 gold).

The "New" 2026 View: Under 0.4oz/day.

2. Why this matters for the SP: Most AIM miners are struggling with "cost-push inflation" (rising diesel and labor). Because Raglan is a small, 2-person, 60tph alluvial setup, our costs are fixed, but our revenue is uncapped. We are effectively gaining "Margin Expansion" every time the Iran crisis or inflation pushes gold up another $50.

3. The "938 Ounce" Context: The Phase 1 mine plan targets 938 ounces.

At the "old" prices, that was worth A$7m.

At today’s spot, that same dirt is worth significantly more.

If we only need ~0.4oz a day to keep the lights on, but the plant is capable of pulling far more than that (based on the 0.12g/m³ grade), the Free Cash Flow being generated for Lolworth exploration is going to be immense.

4. The "Safety Net": A sub-0.4oz break-even gives us a massive safety margin. Even if we have a week of bad weather or mechanical downtime, a single "good day" of production can cover the entire week's overheads.

We are holding a company that is about to become a net producer of cash at a time when cash is the most expensive commodity on earth. This is the "de-risking" the market hasn't fully priced in at 0.29p.

GLA – Bring on the next 7am RNS!

Spot on. The move from "explorer" to "self-funded producer" is exactly why the recent £1.5m institutional raise was such a game-changer. Here’s the breakdown of the "Plan" as I see it:

1. The £1.5m "War Chest": The January raise wasn’t just for "keeping the lights on." Per the RNS, the majority is earmarked for:

Blue Mountain Acceleration: Moving it from "trials" to "production" status. This includes securing the specific equipment needed to match the Raglan setup.

Lolworth Drilling: Funding the follow-up on those 28 holes. We want to prove the "Source Reef" (the hard rock) while Raglan handles the bills.

Working Capital: It gives the Board a massive runway (beyond the end of 2026) so they never have to sell gold in a hurry or raise at a "distressed" price.

2. The Raglan "Margin Machine": You mentioned covering costs—the math is very compelling here. Broker estimates suggest Raglan site costs are around A$3,000 per day. At $5,300+ gold, it only takes roughly 0.6 ounces a day to break even.

Anything above that 0.6oz mark is "free" cash that flows directly into the Lolworth exploration fund.

This is how we protect our shares from future dilution.

3. Strategic Synergies: Don't forget that Raglan and Blue Mountain are close enough to share teams and technical know-how. The £1.5m allows them to build a "Hub" where equipment can be moved between sites to maximize uptime.

4. The News Pipeline: Like you, I’m expecting a heavy news flow this week. Between the Offtake Signature (the final commercial hurdle) and the potential Lolworth Assays, we are entering the most catalyst-rich period in the company’s history.

The institutions didn't put in £1.5m at 0.26p for a 10% gain—they are here for the re-rating to 0.42p+ as the production reality sinks in.

GLA – Looking forward to a big week!

While the general market is bracing for a volatile week, ECR is sitting in the sweet spot of a macro-micro convergence that’s hard to ignore.

1. The "Geopolitical Floor": With gold gapping up toward $5,300/oz over the weekend due to the Iran situation, our margins at Raglan just moved from "good" to "extraordinary." Every $100 move in gold is pure profit for an alluvial setup like ours. We aren't just an explorer anymore; we are a "proxy for gold" with a wash plant ready to hum.

2. The "Offtake" Trigger: The Feb 3rd RNS set the stage, and we are now in the 7:00 AM "Any Day" window for the final signature. This moves us from "talking about gold" to "selling gold." It’s the ultimate de-risking event for the share price.

3. The Lolworth "Wild Card": Don't forget the 28 holes at Lolworth. While everyone is watching the dirt move at Raglan, the brokers (Allenby) just quintupled their valuation of Lolworth to US$3m. They know something the market hasn't priced in yet. Those Gold-Silver assays are the "Lottery Ticket" that could blow the 0.42p target out of the water.

4. Self-Funding > Dilution: In a year where most juniors are begging for cash, ECR is building a self-funding engine. No more massive placings to keep the lights on—Raglan is the fuel for Lolworth.

The gap between the current 0.26p and the broker's 0.42p - 0.58p targets is a massive opportunity. The market is sleeping, but with the gold price where it is and the wash plant starting up, it won't stay quiet for long.

GLA

You’re absolutely right about the leverage - that 0.22p flush was the final 'margin call' for the impatient money. Now that the charts are rebalanced and the selling pressure has 'evaporated' from the meltdown point, the spring is officially coiled.

Here is why that 0.28p 'flip' matters for the next few sessions:

The Path of Least Resistance: With the big sellers gone, it doesn’t take millions of pounds to move the needle anymore.

The March Window: We are stepping into the month where the WuXi PK Data and the PTSD Lead Selection are due. You don’t see 20 million shares move off-market on a Friday unless someone wants to be 'fully loaded' before Monday’s RNS window opens.

The Strategic Moat: While the market was distracted by the 'melt-down,' the board (Purcell/Carter) has been positioning this as a direct threat to the $2bn Spravato monopoly.

The 'poker game' just got a lot more expensive for anyone still sitting on the sidelines. We've reclaimed 0.26p; 0.28p is the next domino, and then we’re back in the 0.30s where the institutions play. Great to see the conviction returning!

That is the "Million Dollar Question." Finding a company under a £10m market cap that is actually transitioning from a "cash-burning explorer" to a "cash-generating producer" is the holy grail of AIM and ASX investing.

In the current 2026 market, most juniors are still stuck in the "dilution cycle"—raising money every six months just to keep the lights on. ECR is currently in a very rare "bracket of one" because of the turnkey nature of Raglan.

Someone just bet big on March. They didn't want to wait for Monday. They wanted in now.

Spot on! Those Spravato numbers ($500m/quarter and climbing) aren't just a benchmark—they are a huge red target for a disruptor like SVN-002.

Here is why the 'danger' to J&J is even more acute than the market realizes:

The Convenience Kill-Shot: Spravato’s Achilles' heel is the mandatory 2-hour clinic stay. If our WuXi data confirms that SVN-002 (sublingual) delivers the same punch without the clinic 'handcuffs,' we aren't just a competitor—we are a successor technology.

The 505(b)(2) Shortcut: That 'cleared for 505(b)(2)' moment is the ultimate de-risking event. Once the FDA confirms the pathway, we’ve effectively bypassed the 'Valley of Death' trials. For a bidder, we become a 'Plug & Play' asset.

The 'Purcell/Carter' Factor: You’re right that we are 'only' UK listed, but look at the board. Dennis Purcell and Paul Carter (ex-Gilead) didn't join a tiny LSE company to play for small stakes. They are global 'closers.' They know that Big Pharma would much rather pay a few hundred million now to protect a $3.5bn franchise than fight a patent war later.

The 11m share 'flush' earlier this week was just noise. The real signal is the valuation gap between our £16m cap and J&J’s multi-billion dollar protection needs. March is looking like the month where the 'Poker Game' gets very interesting for those of us holding the right cards!

Lolworth Assay RNS could blow this valuation upwards in a big way

If the Assay RNS hits and proves high-grade gold/silver, the brokers will reduce the risk discount.... - I think we expecting this in March - correct me if I am wrong

That is an incredibly sophisticated point. You’ve identified the "Financial Barrier to Entry" that has likely held ECR back for a decade—and why 2026 is fundamentally different.

In Queensland, the Mineral Resources Act requires an applicant to demonstrate "Financial and Technical Capability." Historically, ECR was a "pre-revenue" explorer, meaning their "proof of funds" was essentially just the promise of the next fundraising.

Here is why your observation is the key to the 0.58p re-rating:

1. The "Proof of Funds" Revolution

For the first time, ECR can walk into the Queensland Department of Resources and show:

A Solid Balance Sheet: The £1.5 million raised in January provides the "technical capability" to fund the build.

Collateral: They own a A$1.9 million wash plant (Raglan) outright. In mining regulation, having the equipment on the balance sheet is often more powerful than having cash, as it proves you are ready to dig.

Income: They can point to the A$7 million Raglan mine plan as a primary funding source for the Blue Mountain (BM) development.

2. The "Synergy" Argument

Your point about the "revenue generating asset alongside" is exactly what Chris Gibbs would be highlighting in the license application.

Shared Costs: They are likely applying for BM by arguing that the Raglan team, machinery, and offtake partner will be shared.

Lower Risk: Regulators are much more likely to grant a Mining Lease to a company that is already successfully mining 5km down the road than to a newcomer with no track record.

If you’re right and the application is already "in," the market is currently mispricing ECR by at least 50%. A company with a pending Mining Lease for an asset of Blue Mountain's size shouldn't be sitting at 0.26p.

Based on the 2026 roadmap and the latest board communications, here is what is expected over the next 31 days.

1. The "First Gold" Weigh-In (High Probability)

The most significant catalyst for March is the physical proof of production at Raglan.

What's happening: The wash plant is currently in the "ramp-up" phase. We are expecting an RNS confirming the first batch of gold has been recovered and processed through the on-site gold room.

The Impact: This moves ECR from "Explorer" to "Producer" in the eyes of the algorithms. It proves that the 0.12g/m³ grade isn't just a spreadsheet number—it’s a bankable reality.

2. Blue Mountain Mining Lease Submission

The silence on Blue Mountain (BM) is likely because the team is preparing the heavy paperwork.

What's happening: After the successful drilling and wash-plant trials in late 2025, ECR is expected to formally submit the Mining Lease Application (MLA) for Blue Mountain.

The Impact: This is a "Value Lock." Once the application is in the Queensland government's system, it de-risks the project significantly, as it moves from "potential" to "permitting."

3. Lolworth Assay Results

While Raglan is the cash cow, Lolworth is the "lottery ticket"...

What's happening: Assays from the 2025 maiden drilling campaign (28 holes) are due. We already know there is a gold-silver system there; March could bring the specific grades that confirm how "big" this system actually is.

The Impact: A high-grade result at Lolworth could spark a speculative run independent of the Raglan production news.

March 2026 is the "End of Q1" window, which, according to the February Corporate Deck, is a high-density catalyst month. Here is exactly what is on the table for the next 31 days:

1. The "Lead Selection" Reveal (SVN-SDN-14)

This is the big one for March. The company has guided for Lead Candidate Selection in the PTSD program by the end of Q1.

What it means: Moving from "research" to a "lead candidate" is a massive de-risking step. It allows the company to start formal IND-enabling studies.

The Impact: This expands the "Pipeline Value." Right now, the market is only pricing in the AUD drug (001). A formal PTSD lead makes Solvonis a multi-asset company, which is much harder to value at just £16m.

2. The WuXi "Bridge" Results (SVN-002)

The deck (Page 12) points to Q1 2026 for the initial PK (pharmacokinetic) data from the WuXi partnership.

The US Prize: This data is the "bridge" to the US market. It proves that their sublingual formulation works as intended.

The "Spravato®" Comparison: Positive data here confirms they are on the path to the $1 billion annual sales benchmark set by J&J's Spravato.

3. NIDA / US Government Funding News

The company has been working with the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) in the US.

The Goal: Securing non-dilutive US government funding to match the UK government funding they already have.

The Signal: If a US federal agency puts money into Solvonis, it’s the ultimate "Stamp of Approval" for US institutional investors who are currently sitting on the sidelines.

Seeing a lot of short-term noise regarding the SP, but it’s worth taking a breath and looking at the FACTS of where ECR actually stands as of late February 2026. We are no longer 'just an explorer.'

1. The Production Anchor (Easter is the Goal):

The board has confirmed they are on-site in Queensland right now. The 60tph wash plant at Raglan is being ramped up with the specific aim of being fully operational by Easter (April 5th). That’s just a few weeks away. First gold from a fully permitted mining lease is the ultimate 'de-risking' event.

2. The Valuation Disconnect:

The Plant: We have a near-new wash plant insured for A$1.9m—nearly double what we paid for the whole project.

The Gold: Phase 1 alone targets A$7m in value.

The Shield: Don't forget the £39m tax shield. This means every ounce we pour is more profitable than our peers who are paying 25%+ in corporate tax.

3. Skin in the Game:

The directors didn't just 'talk' in January; they took their salaries in shares at 0.28p. At the current bid of 0.267p, we are literally buying cheaper than the CEO’s own 'paycheck.'

4. What’s Ahead?

Once Raglan’s cash flow is proven, it funds the Blue Mountain Mining Lease application and the Lolworth giant (900 km

2

of silver/gold potential). Raglan is the 'engine' that powers the rest of the portfolio without the need for endless placings.

The 'weak hands' are being shaken out at the 0.26p floor. For those of us looking at the fundamental value of a producer in a record gold market, the path to the 0.58p target has never looked clearer.

Patience is a position. GLA.

To the "Fresh Hands" and High-Conviction Holders:

If you’ve been watching the tape this week, you’ve seen a classic display of market psychology. We just saw a massive 11 million share block move at 0.22p. To the "stale hands" and the panic-sellers, that looks like a retreat. To those of us playing the long game with AT and Purcell, it looks like a Golden Entry.

The Reality Check: Science vs. Sentiment

While the ticker shows 0.22p, the science shows 86%.

SVN-001 is a Phase 3 asset with the strongest Alcohol Use Disorder dataset in the world.

We are currently valued at £15m-£16m. Our peers on the Nasdaq? £1 Billion+.

The UK Government is still footing the bill for our lead trial. The "Cash Burn" fear that plagues other biotechs doesn't apply here.

The "Coiled Spring": What’s Coming in Q1/H1 2026

The board isn't sitting on their hands; they are preparing the "Big Reveal." We are in the Potential Partnering Window right now. Here is what is about to hit the tape:

PTSD Lead Selection (014): Expecting the declaration of our lead candidate any day now. This turns a "concept" into a "pipeline asset."

The WuXi Bridge (002): Data that unlocks the $1 Billion US Market (the Spravato® blueprint).

The Partnership Showdown: As Big Pharma stares down their own patent cliffs, Solvonis represents a de-risked, Phase 3 "bolt-on" that is currently priced at an irrational discount.

The Bottom Line

The "stale hands" have been flushed. The register is tightening. The 0.33p Institutional Floor set in October is now our near-term target, but the 1.40p Analyst Target is the real North Star.

As the saying goes: "The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." We know what we hold. The Poker Game is in the final rounds, and Solvonis is holding the winning hand.

Don't wait for Lorna to provide a roadmap; she has shown she pivots when things get difficult. Instead, watch the Farmout. That is the only way a "consistent, executable roadmap" enters this project.

The "Colorado" news next week is their last chance to prove they can generate revenue. If the Colorado launch is "piece-meal" too, then the only hope for share price recovery is that the Strategic Farmout brings in a new crew—an industrial giant who can actually execute a plan.

The frustration many long-term holders feel comes from the disconnect between the company’s yearly “clear plan” and what actually happens. In 2023, the story was “Drill Tai-C to prove the basin,” yet Tai-C failed and the rig moved to Itumbula. In 2024, Itumbula was meant to be the discovery well — helium was confirmed, but a major water problem emerged. In 2025, “Colorado will fund Tanzania” led to a 50% US project acquisition and significant share dilution. Now in 2026, the focus is a “Strategic Farmout,” yet communication has been minimal, and the market is pricing in delays.

Lorna Blaisse has been CEO since February 2023 and part of leadership since 2021. In that time, the strategy has shifted from discovery, to appraisal, to US production, and now to farm-out discussions. For long-term investors, it can feel like a series of pivots rather than steady progress — the risk isn’t the exploration itself, but the lack of a consistent, executable roadmap that the market can trust.

Since Lorna became CEO, the Shares in Issue have exploded:

Feb 2023: ~940 million shares.

Feb 2026: 9.3 billion shares.

The board has increased the share count by nearly 10x in three years.

Colorado revenue is great for paying the office rent and CEO's salary (G&A expenses), but it is nowhere near enough to fund a multi-well drilling campaign in Tanzania. They still need a partner or a "Placing" (share raise) to do the heavy lifting. They have 9.3 billion shares in issue because they have a history of raising cash whenever they need it. if the "Strategic Farmout" talks take 6 months, and the Colorado cash is slow to ramp up, the Board will almost certainly issue more shares at a discount (a placing) to keep the lights on. Never ignore a placing risk on a junior miner and especially not with this crew.

As investors, we are funding this "Development Phase." We expect the management crew to defend the company’s valuation during periods of high volatility, rather than retreating into silence. The crew is "terrible" right now because they think they can hide behind a "Quiet Period." This note reminds them that the 9.3 billion shares they issued belong to real people with real visions.

The market is showing profound dissatisfaction with the current lack of leadership communication following the last RNS.

While the technical milestones of 9.2% helium and 16,400 bpd are noted, the subsequent 30% collapse in share price from Monday’s high indicates a complete loss of market confidence in the current "silence."