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The Replacement Math: If the US or China wanted to find another 9.2% discovery today, they’d have to spend 5–10 years and hundreds of millions in exploration. Buying HE1 for even £300m (~3.2p) is still infinitely cheaper and faster than starting from scratch.

Yes the perfect storm is happening now

The Hormuz Crisis: Just yesterday (March 3), tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated. Qatar (30% of global supply) has had to route containers overland because LNG tankers are being blocked. When Qatar slows down, the world's semiconductor fabs go into panic mode.

The Russian Void: The Amur plant is still struggling with reliability and sanctions. The "cushion" the market expected for 2026 has vanished.

The AI/Quantum Explosion: 2026 is the year Quantum Computing moved to "Pilot Lines." These machines don't just use helium; they require ultra-high purity liquid helium to reach absolute zero.

As of early 2026, Helium One's register is one of the most uniquely retail-heavy on the AIM. Of the 9.32 billion shares in issue, the 'General Public' (retail investors) holds a massive 65.6%, while Institutions hold approximately 34.2%. The top 11 shareholders, including big-name platforms like Hargreaves Lansdown (19.2%) and Interactive Investor (14.3%), primarily act as nominees for thousands of individual private investors. With only 0.13% held by insiders, the power isn't in the boardroom—it's in the hands of the retail crowd. A bidder trying to hit a 90% threshold would have to convince millions of individual account holders to accept, many of whom are holding for the 'North Star' value, making a cheap hostile takeover a logistical nightmare.

Mr Blue - fair point, there is a lot to absorb so I’ll keep it brief: The Bid is 0.71p. The volume is parabolic. The US launched a $12bn Project Vault. China is building the TAZARA rail to the Rukwa. If that’s 'AI filler,' then the MMs must be running on the same algorithm, because they’re currently buying everything that isn't nailed down. Happy to stick to the numbers if the context is too much!

The market is likely front-running one of two things for tomorrow morning:

Colorado First Sales: If BNL (Blue Star) or HE1 releases an RNS confirming the first tube trailer has left the Pinon Canyon Plant for a "Spot Sale" at premium 2026 prices.

The "Preferred Bidder": Following the February 16 launch of the farm-out, the speed of this move suggests a "Heads of Terms" (HoT) might have been signed. The market is pricing in the end of the "dilution era."

When volume velocity hits 6.43M/min, it means the "Whales" are no longer nibbling; they are gulping every available share to clear the decks before an RNS

Probably the most interesting thing today isn’t the chat — it’s what the market makers are doing, particularly Peel Hunt.

When a firm bid moves from 0.59p to 0.65p in one session, that’s not retail punters nudging it up a tick at a time. MMs don’t chase sentiment — they adjust when they need to manage risk and inventory. A sharp upward move in the bid usually means stock has been taken out of their hands and they’re protecting what’s left.

Add to that ~300m shares traded. You don’t see that sort of volume purely on bulletin board enthusiasm. That kind of turnover normally points to structured accumulation or at least larger blocks changing hands.

That said, I’d be cautious about jumping straight to “RNS in 48 hours” or assuming someone has inside knowledge. MMs react to order flow — they don’t necessarily know what’s coming, they just manage exposure. But when a lead desk is firming the floor like that, it does suggest demand is outweighing supply in a meaningful way.

Whether that’s positioning ahead of farm-out news, sector tailwinds, or simply a technical squeeze — we’ll find out soon enough. For now, the tape is stronger than the thread.

Mr Crusty Pete:

The 300m volume and the move to 0.68p tell us one thing: the market isn't waiting for the Board to 'allude' to the solution—the Big Money has already figured it out.

Why haven't the BoD spoken up? Two words: Data Room.

NDA Lock-down: On Feb 16, the Board officially launched the Strategic Farm-out. The moment you open a Data Room for Tier-1 majors (like Linde, Exxon, or UAE-backed funds), you enter a 'Blackout Period.' If Lorna starts 'alluding' to engineering solutions on a webinar, she risks breaking NDAs or signaling her hand to the very partners she’s trying to squeeze for a better deal.

The Colorado 'Lead-in': The Board doesn't need to promise the solution is 'retrievable' because they are currently proving it in Colorado. The Pinon Canyon plant moving into integrated operations right now is the live 'proof of concept.' They are showing they can handle complex gas streams and deliver commercial tube trailers.

Commerciality is a Bidding War: The Board isn't looking to convince us it’s commercial; they are letting the 9.2% Helium grade do the talking. At that concentration, 'commerciality' is an engineering certainty for a major. Their silence is the sound of them letting two superpowers (West vs. East) look at the 16,400 bpd flow rates and outbid each other for the right to 'fix' it.

The volume today suggests the 'Whales' are positioning themselves before the Board breaks that silence with a definitive 'Partner Secured' RNS. At 0.68p, we are finally seeing the market reject the 'penny stock' label and start valuing this as a Strategic Global Asset.

As to your second comment Mr Crusty Pete:

The 'art of the possible' is actually very well-established in the wider energy industry. A Farm-out partner won't see the Karoo water as a mystery; they’ll see it as a Zonal Isolation task.

Here are the three main options the BoD and a partner will be looking at for the next well:

1. Dual Completion (The 'Two-Lane Highway'):

This is the most likely 'commercial' fix. Instead of one pipe, the well is fitted with two separate tubing strings and specialized packers. One string draws from the high-grade Basement (9.2% He), while the other manages the Karoo water separately. This prevents 'commingling' downhole and lets you produce pure gas from the Basement without the water ever touching it.

2. Squeeze Cementing & Expandable Liners:

If ITW-1 failed because of a 'leaky straw' effect, the next well will use Expandable Liner technology. These are metal sleeves that are physically expanded against the rock to create a permanent, gas-tight seal across the Karoo. Combined with 'Squeeze Cementing' (forcing high-pressure cement into the gaps), this creates a 'Steel Wall' that shuts the Karoo water out completely.

3. Structural Juxtaposition (The 'Geology Fix'):

The Board mentioned they are targeting areas where the Basement is 'juxtaposed' against the fault. This means they are looking for a spot where the fault itself has shifted the rocks so that a 'non-porous' layer (like a thick clay or tight siltstone) sits directly against the Basement fracture zone. If they hit this 'Natural Seal,' the water problem is solved by the earth itself before they even start pumping.

The Reality: HE1 didn't have the budget or the rig-spec to do a complex Dual Completion on ITW-1. A partner like Linde or Sinopec does this every day. They aren't scared of water; they are attracted to the 9.2% Helium. For them, the 'art of the possible' is simply a matter of bringing the right equipment to the site.

Mr Crusty Pete:

You’ve hit on the core of the 'Basement Play' strategy.

The Feb 16 RNS explicitly mentioned that the Board is already identifying targets where the Basement is juxtaposed against faults. Your point about 'natural isolation' is the holy grail here: if they can drill into a structural trap where the Basement is sealed off from the Karoo aquifer by the fault plane itself, the GWR should naturally skyrocket.

However, there are two reasons why 'Engineering' still matters:

The 'Straw' Problem: Even if the reservoir is naturally isolated, you still have to drill through the Karoo to get to the Basement. In ITW-1, the 'seepage' wasn't just in the rocks; it was likely a mechanical failure to get a perfect cement seal in a high-pressure, high-temperature (90°C) environment. That is an engineering hurdle, regardless of the geology.

The Precision Trap: Targeting a 'juxtaposed' fault zone requires surgical drilling precision. If you miss by 10 meters, you’re back in the mixing zone.

The Bottom Line: The fact that 'natural isolation' exists is exactly why a Major Partner will want in. They see the same 9.2% potential and the same natural fault traps you’ve described. They aren't coming in to 'explore'; they are coming in with the Tier-1 drilling rigs and cementing technology to ensure that when they hit that isolated Basement, they actually keep it isolated all the way to the surface.

Geologically, you’re spot on. But to turn that geology into cash, we need the industrial muscle that only a Farm-out brings.

Mr Blue:

You’re conflating drilling fluid physics with resource value.

While your math on the liquid-to-gas ratio (0.0033%) is mathematically correct for what came up the pipe in ITW-1, it completely misses the point of how a commercial helium plant works. We aren't selling 'helium-water'; we are extracting gas from a carrier fluid.

The Facts:

1. The 'Prize' is Concentration: In the helium industry, 5.4% (average) and 9.2% (peak) are astronomical grades. Whether that gas is carried by 1 barrel of water or 10,000, the value is in the purity of the gas once separated at the surface.

2. The GWR is an Engineering Fix: The Board openly admitted the 0.06 GWR was due to 'Karoo dilution'—meaning the wellbore was essentially a leaky straw drawing in shallow water. A farm-in partner doesn't look at a leaky well and walk away; they look at the 90°C Basement fluids and the instant re-pressurization and see a high-pressure reservoir that needs a better 'seal.'

3. The 16,400 bpd 'Win': The reason the flow rate matters is because it proves permeability. It shows the fault system is 'alive' and can move massive amounts of fluid. If you can move that much water, you can move massive volumes of gas once you optimize the well completion to shut off the Karoo.

A major partner like Linde or Air Products isn't buying a finished factory; they are buying the 9.2% concentration (the 'Gold') and bringing their own engineering (the 'Pan') to separate it more efficiently.

If the helium wasn't there, the GWR wouldn't matter. But since the helium is there in world-class concentrations, the GWR is just an engineering hurdle for the next well.

This is where the “Geographical Interest" comes in.

• The West (US/EU): Needs the helium for the Project Vault strategic reserve.

• The East (China): Wants to control the supply chain through the TAZARA rail and their new Dar es Salaam port.

• The "Bidding War": If both sides want the 9.2% grade, the "Farm-out terms" become a competition. One side might offer to fund five wells instead of two, or offer a higher "Premium" to the share price to win the deal.

In a typical Farm-out, the Big Player pays for the next 1–3 wells in exchange for a % of the project.

• The "Free Ride": Helium One shareholders get the benefit of that second well (and the corrected GWR) without having to put up another penny in dilution.

• The Valuation Jump: The moment the Farm-out is signed, the market stops valuing HE1 as a "risky explorer" and starts valuing it as a "Partnered Developer." That is the moment we see the gap-up toward 1p and beyond.

If the well had been a total failure, there would be no Farm-out. But because they hit 9.2% Helium and 16,400 bpd flow rates, they’ve proven the "Prize" is world-class.

The "Water Problem" is a Discount, not a Deal-Breaker: A major player like Linde or Sinopec will look at the Karoo water and say, "We can fix that with better engineering, but we can't 'fix' a lack of helium. Since the helium is there, we're in."

Forget the Karoo water for a second—look at the map.

In the last 30 days, the global race for critical minerals has gone nuclear. While we wait for an RNS, two massive forces are converging on Tanzania, and Helium One’s 480km² Mining License is right in the crosshairs.

The Western Move: 'Project Vault' & FORGE

On February 2, the US launched 'Project Vault'—a $12 billion strategic reserve designed to 'de-China' the supply chain. Helium is a Tier-1 priority. The US cannot build AI chips or quantum computers without it. They need a non-adversarial, high-grade source. 9.2% concentration is the 'Golden Ledger' they’ve been praying for.

The Eastern Move: China’s 'Port & Rail' Stranglehold

Yesterday (March 3), China confirmed its $1.4 billion refurb of the TAZARA railway, linking the resource-rich interior directly to the Dar es Salaam port they just expanded. China isn't just 'interested' in Tanzanian gas; they are building the plumbing to take it. They know that whoever controls the Rukwa helium controls the future of high-tech manufacturing.

The Bidding War Scenario:

• The West needs to stop China from monopolizing the next generation of energy.

• China needs to secure its own supply to stay ahead in the tech war.

• HE1 is the only independent player with a proven, massive-scale discovery ready for a partner.

Why 1p is a Joke:

A 1p takeover values this entire 9.2% discovery at just £93m. In a world where the US is spending $12bn on a reserve and China is spending $1.4bn on a railway, £93m is pocket change.

Nishant Dighe knows this. The Board knows this. The superpowers know this. We aren't just looking for a 'Farm-out'; we are looking at a Geopolitical Auction.

Hold your position… GLA

The silence since Feb 16 is the "Quiet before the Bidding." With the US Project Vault and Chinese Port projects both hitting the news this month, Helium One has become a "pawn" that is suddenly worth more than the "kings" on the board.

I’m not saying it has nothing to do with it — of course macro helium pricing and supply disruption are supportive for the whole sector. If 30% of global supply is constrained and pricing is firming, that’s a tailwind for any credible helium story.

What I am saying is that on AIM, single-day moves are rarely driven purely by macro pricing headlines. Liquidity, positioning, spreads tightening, and anticipation of company-specific catalysts usually play just as big a role. It’s probably a mix — sector backdrop + stock-specific dynamics — rather than one single trigger.

What happened to £5 TREK?

The 9.3 billion shares are a heavy weight, but 9.2% Helium is an irresistible magnet. The market is finally starting to realise that the "Water Problem" is just a drilling fix for a partner with deep pockets. Hang in there Mr Punter and Mr Patrick - this is a very interesting project with great data to analyse - complex situation here.

Yeah, looks like the market’s a bit locked in right now — frustrating for short-term moves, but often a sign something bigger is brewing. GL!