Member Info for thelearner

Good question - "whats the long term outlook"
HAV - looks great - GGP will have 30% of hopefully tier 1 gold mine with fast track to production using mine at Telfer.
GGP will have 2 choices - sell the 30% share to NC or highest bidder - well NC can have 5% at fair market value, or GGP stays owning 25 or 30% of the mine taking the annual profit from the gold and copper. If GGP choose the latter path - they will need to contribute 25 or 30 per cent of the development costs, which should be low - and agree a toll mining deal with NC?

So in the near long term, selling HAV would do more for the SP - while keeping the % and mining over the life of the mine will give good income to keep growing the CPY and SP would increase with MCAP.

GGP is no only about HAV though - there is very good potential for other finds - Paterson and Tasmania. But again these need money to drill - so could be JV or money from selling HAV.

I don't have a crystal ball or any expertise. I think the SP short term could drop further, my position is if it drops to 3.5 I'll buy more. When it was 5.7 - sat on my hands - wish I had the courage to trade. My average is just under 2p, highest price I paid was 3.55.
I think next real thing that could have positive impact on SP is March drilling results from HAV (with PaddyG's intermediate updates from Sat images helping). My personal view is that if this is at 10p by year end I'll be more than happy. Anything else is a bonus. Then hopefully - with more discoveries - SP can keep increasing. That also assumes POG is stable - if it increases - better for us - if it decreases - not so good.

I could be way off, but everyone should do their own reading and have their own plan - some really great valuable info on this board.

GLA

1,000,000 sell posted not long after - some will be tempted to take the loss and move money into something they think has better recovery potential.

Good buying opportunity - including for BOD? Not for me - in too deep already - no more averaging down

I was reading the terms of the farm in agreement again - as was interested in which company would be applying for the permits.
Newcrest are the manager for everything during the JV period - so assume they will apply for all permitting - and keep GGP updated on all the plans. But who would release any RNS regarding permitting?
If they press ahead with the decline for exploration - will be very interesting.

I can see ChrisB’s point. Lower grade feed pushing up AISC at Telfer, heading to be uneconomic loss making mine in the not too distant future, depending on gold price and any savings they can make on operating costs.
This explains the huge push on with HAV. The JV could take up to 6 years. More likely will be done within 3 years. Looks like HAV can hugely extend Telfer life and make it more profitable.

If I was a Newcrest shareholder, I would be very happy we owned Acadia, AISC extremely low, and quite high at many others including Telfer, can see why HAV and any other discoveries in the vicinity of Telfer are very important to them. The Q&A should be more interesting.

I also made a fatal error in my comparison. I should not have looked at share price, should have looked at mcap. CNR mcap 20 mill so my comparison with ggp is none sense. Basic error.

Spymaster, accepted should not have used proven. Numis have used that estimated figure in their SP target. Hopefully will be much more, but nothing proven until ore is being processed.

My hands will remain numb - although my limited AIM investing experience has shown that if I had sold on spikes and bought back in low - I'd have much more shares and a much lower average - but there is always the risk you cannot get back in low.

I am invested in 2 AIM Gold Explorers. I look at CNR, quality directors inc Jim Mellon, Ross Beaty invested. Have about 2.5 moz proven in Nicaragua, think they can go to 5moz with more drilling (expensive). They hope to mine but need to raise 140 mill to build a mine. Share price tanked to around 20p when the recent political troubles flared - and it looks a long road ahead for them.

Compare them to GGP, in Australia, stable, 30% of proven 5mOz at Hav, so 1.5 mOz (likely to be much higher), also with loads of more promising sites to drill. So when I compare the two, hard to see why Haz could not reach 10p now, and possibly more?

I think this will be a long relatively slow increase in SP - Hav Proven Resource not likely to be known until end of year. I am quite happy to be in for the long term.

Also fully understand the traders who deal and make quick money.

think possibly some fed up waiting and taking the loss and moving to somewhere with potentially better rewards

Thanks Paddy - what is there not to like in that presentation?

Agree - if stage 3 of JV is now active, this may be mentioned but I do not expect anything earth shattering. Will continue tp speak positively about HAV.

They have previously said HAV resource estimate will not be avial until end 2020. This can only come quicker if the find the outer limits or increase rig count.
If they are considering JV on Scallywag, my own opinion is this is too early for GGP - but GH knows best and unlikely this would be announced in this report.

Meantime I am sitting tight - last purchased at 3.55, my average is 1.9. I will be sitting tight for a long time.
Very interesting all the sells and very hard to buy.

Like many I am well under here and have never sold a share - did contemplate selling a load at a loss and investing in GGP - but never - so that was potentially another mistake on my part - I am always never keen to sell at a loss - but I need to change my behaviour as an investor.

However - I look at GGP - and the apparent success story that may be happening there - gives me hope that this BOD may still be able to turn around SML.

Redmoor
https://iclg.com/practice-areas/international-arbitration-laws-and-regulations/usa

From how I read this - either there must have been a clause in the initial contract - you would think smart lawyers would have this in place as standard - or if this was not the case, the MC would have to agree to enter arbitration. They would only do this I suppose if the thought the company instigating the arbitration would then proceed to court, and if successful the court's view might be dim that arbitration had been refused?

NC have "first refusal" on all other GGP Paterson Licences - agree JV would make sens with NC. But this time, I would not expect us to have to give away such a large %, and GH would be in a much stronger negotiating position - hopefully the % could be agreed depending on the size of the find, scaling down the % as the proven oz in ground gets bigger.
GGP could offer a buy in at their terms - give NC first refusal and if they do not take it offer it to the market.

My shares are held in H&L Stock ISA - I have never ever once had voting rights?
So how could I vote anything down?

I made the profit (less charges) £1219

Excellent posts JerseyCrew. Will be even better in a couple of these if we make good finds near the surface.
I am firmly sitting on what I have - I have been extremely cautious about buying more once we were above 3.5p - I hope I regret this - my caution is due to previous poor experience on AIM. I don't think that will happen here.

https://www.wealthprotectionreport.co.uk/public/Tax-Treatment-of-Options-and-Warrants.cfm

UK taxation of options and warrants - not somewhere I am ever going to go - I simply use ISA's to protect from CGT when buying shares and funds.

We do have a small SIPP each, which will be subject to Income tax under the pension rules.

I also do not know anything about warrants - and am interested.
I do know about bonus share schemes in the UK - and know you are taxed on any discount to actual share price, even although you are restricted from selling the bonus shares for a few years - so have to find the money for the tax bill - so if warrants were treated like this by the taxman, be beneficial to exercise as soon as possible - if you were confident SP would continue to grow.

However - imagine a lot of the warrant holders may be in Oz - so tax rules will be different?

Thanks - that's more than a small punt for me!