Member Info for thelearner

I too hope the recovery continues - been here since early 2018 - and really went in far too deep. Hindsight tells me I had too much blind faith when we had problems with the MC and LC.
DJRyan did well to get out when he did. I remember buying at 1.0p and 0.9p thinking we had found the floor - I was completely wrong - and have resisted topping up at 0.5p although the temptation was strong.

I am happy with the RNS and what I see now. Arbitration - I am still expecting nothing - but see anything from this as a bonus. My main worry is the ability of the MC to settle any finding for us - but you never know.

I'll be happy in a year or two if I can break even here - my average is higher than DV's - I am at 1.4 - still holding, and hoping a couple of my goldies can make up for this one.

Going up quickly on very small volume of sales - kind of bemuses me at times does AIM. I had a fill order for £5K in for this morning - and limit was same as first few sales - but those sales were small. So never succeeded.
I was lucky enough to top up at 21, 17 and 20p during 2019, but been here since 2017, and SP is again moving closer to my average of 32p.

Very happy with RIO move and what has been happening recently - would just like to see some stronger buying volumes.
I'd be more than delighted if we ever reach some of the valuations mentioned today. I am still holding - GLA

schlemiel, I think "fair value" has to be agreed by both parties - it's a negotiation - and if it could not be agreed would have to go to arbitration or court. Unlikely they will not be able to agree. Businesses do deals all the time.
An option may be that GGP could get "fair value" by agreeing that for this 5% - NC cover all the 25% share of development costs that GGP would be liable for - lot of number crunching to be done first though.

The remaining 25% - NC have the option of first refusal - so if for example RIO or any other company are willing to pay a higher price - NC would have to match this. That's how I see it but could be wrong.

This is very interesting. If they were to purchase GGP share of HAV, GGP could insist on future royalty payments to GGP as part of the deal as the MRE increased in the blocks NC purchased. Would be down to good negotiation, and assumes GGP do not get fully bought out.

Looking at Cadia - past peak as NC targeted the highly mineralised areas first, and now the ore grades are dropping off - and looking at Telfer - ideally NC would be 3 years ahead of where they are now, so I am sure the major miners are now putting more focus on having future mines explored, evaluated and ready to be developed.
They seem happy to let junior exploration mining companies get on with this - and buy them or develop JV's as required.

So the exploration of other Paterson blocks in close proximity to Telfer will obviously be of great interest to NC. So GH at GGP will probably have some sort of strategy for the future of the company - and I hope it will not be to sell everything until we have done some exploration drilling in other areas which if showing good results will greatly increase the value of GGP. The downside if is if the results are not good, the value of GGP decreases.

The jewel that Newcrest own is Cadia, and hopefully for us GGP shareholders HAV may prove similar.
Newcrest’s 2007 annual report listed the pre-feasibility stage mineral resources of Cadia East Underground at 15.5 million ounces (Moz) of gold and 2.24 million tonnes (Mt) of copper.
After this evaluation and exploration drilling continued while development of the mine went through the approval process.
The Cadia East system is up to 600m-wide and extends to 1.9km below the surface.
Estimates for the Cadia East Underground project were revised in 2009 up to 2,347Mt, including 33.2Moz of gold and 6.59Mt of copper.
By 2009, the mineral resources of Cadia East increased by 5.2Moz of gold and 1.02Mt of copper. The ore reserves are 18.7Moz of gold and 31.6Mt of copper.
The exploration activities resulted in increase of about 2.4 million ounces of gold and 0.40Mt of copper reserves. The total mineral resources as of 2009 were 2,347Mt (including measured, indicated and inferred) graded at 0.44g/t Au and 0.28% copper.

We await next results with interest. When we get the MRE at year end, I do not believe this will show the full extent of the reserves, continued drilling will be required, HAV is still open to North and to further depth. One of the GGP charts also shows open to South.

https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Update-on-Newcrest-Drilling-at-Havieron-20190910.pdf

Articles about Cadia East
https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/cadia/

Interestingly Cadia has also peaked. Maybe another reason NC really want to develop HAV and revitalise Telfer
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/08/19/less-gold-in-the-pan-for-newcrest/

I am sitting holding. Hindsight would have been great to sell at 5.2 and buy back in now. Short term I have no idea where the SP will go. Long term happy with GGP prospects. My target is 10p minimum within a couple of years, maybe sooner.
Next week think I will take some new cash and place fill orders at 3.7. Probably won’t get any, but the will buy some cheap blue chips.

GLA

The volume of shares available for trading will gradually decrease as more make their way into sticky hands - especially in II's start buying.
Then the SP will start to increase and as people top slice to meet their target price they will sell, and these shares will be available to trade, but again probably end up in sticky hands.
SP will rise slowly and steadily with some minor dips I think. Everyone has their own target - mine is 10p - but even if it hits there I am sure I will keep holding.

It's impossible to read all the posts - but I have suggested this - seems to be a typical time for block caving with Newcrest - they achieved this at Cadia

Cannot see it on scale. They have been talking about constructing a decline for the block caving structure, which will mean removal of significant materials with minerals, but most crucial thing is putting this in the correct place. Hence the requirement for more infill drilling and to know where the highest grades are.

From what I have read, there may be more than 1 decline and block cave mining structure required. Let’s hope so.

Normal timescale from end to feasibility study and go for mining to block cave mining start seems to be around 3 years.
I would imagine the decline would be going down to 1000 metres or deeper.

I would be interested in seeing more detail if anyone has it, I did post links earlier, especially once say the block cave has removed ore to the top mineralised zone, does the remaining 500 metres to surface have to collapse into the cave and be removed?

Bingo1975, sorry I don’t think you can simply use the NC across the board figures. Telfer AISC is around $1200, I think Cadia around $200 or $300. Depends on mine opex, grades being processed and volumes, ie how close to capacity is mine operating at. Telfer high AISC probably due to low grades in ore.

To get detailed cost, need to wait for feasibility study. For CAPEX there is no mine to build. OPEX (toll refining cost) could be low but will have to include shipping ore 45km to Telfer.
I also have noticed NC like other companies worried about climate change and carbon footprint. If HAV is huge (let’s hope so) rail might be the most cost effective and green option for this. Rail could also be used for any future discoveries. Great if we found a few tier 1 deposits on GGP licenses.

Bingo1975 the JV and other GGP website info https://greatlandgold.com/paterson/ clearly state the ore from HAV will be “toll processed” at Telfer. Toll processing usually means the operating costs of the mine used for processing are charge to the customers supplying the ore,

GGP would also be responsible for their Share of project CAPEX for the block caving infrastructure at HAV. Feasibility studies will have all costs.

GGP could offer to sell GGP to NC once MRE is known, or put their share on the market. Hopefully they will have lots of options.

https://greatlandgold.com/
Investor relations reports are very interesting and details of all holdings and projects on the site.

Could this hit 25p, yes it could, an no, it may not.
GGP have some very good exploration licences, with some encouraging very very early results, the exception being Haveiron, which looks possibly like a potential tier 1 gold discovery with plenty copper. GGP entered JV with Newcrest March 19, and for minimum 65 million US, Newcrest can earn 70% of HAV.

If HAV is mined, which is highly likely GGP can remain 30% owners, or could sell their share. They could fund exploration on other prospects, do more JV or someone could try and buy GGP.

Many possible outcomes with many possible share prices.

Good luck deciding, the reading is very interesting.

Not sure if he could? Newcrest JV gives them first refusal on GGP - but it's not clear if this would also mean on any JV on the Paterson licences.
I'd also not want to enter any other JV if we did not need too - Newcrest have 70% of HAV for $65million (minimum - they might spend more).
We'd be better starting test drilling Scally on our own, retaining 100% ownership. Then if GH feels he wants to do a JV, and has some good results- in a much stronger negotiating position, and could get JV for much lower %, or base the % on what is found (MRE).

I think many people need to have a much more patient approach - hold your shares and the rewards will come. ONly a buyout will bring a fast large return IMHO, but I think the return will be larger with patience - but it's a game of chance on what is under the ground - but the odds are in favour of GGP.

https://greatlandgold.com/paterson/
These are the highlights of the JV on the GGP website.
NC are responsible for all drilling costs during the JV and have full management control.
Once the feasibility studies are completed, I would expect GGP to be liable for their % share of Capital Expenditure, for construction of the block caving declines and infrastructure. Typical time to produce ore post feasibility study completion seems to be about 3 years.
The JV mentions a tolling agreement, I would imagine this will be negotiated, higher grades would I think have lower toll costs.

I watched the interview on on of Applegarth’s links today. GH clearly speaks about the proceeds from HAV mining providing dividends for shareholders.
However, on the GGP website, it also states they are an exploration company with no intention of becoming a miner.

I am just glad I am invested in this great company with loads of potential, and really interesting times ahead, and I am learning a bit about gold mining.

GLA

The average AISC for Newcrest looks quite good, between 850 and 900 $/oz, but this is due to the very low AISC at Cadia. Other sites do not look nearly as good.
Once HAV MRE is known, and feasibility studies completed, hopefully with higher grades and toll mining at Telfer, AISC will hopefully be much lower, making HAV extremely important for Newcrest.

Newcrest also have very important projects at Red Chris in Canada, where they have yet to prove they can make this a very profitable operation, currently loss making?

Even with HAV, Newcrest will require a substantial Capital Investment, with a 3 year period likely before they start producing revenue.

Not sure how strong financially Newcrest would be in comparison to some other majors who may show interest in GGP assets. The higher the number of financially strong bidders, the better for GGP.

I am more used to black gold. Oil majors like to spread risk by having partners sharing risk when developing large projects. Mining seems different? Would RIO bid for GGP remaining 25% of HAV?

I saw this posted a wee while ago
"Newcrest are drilling like crazy and its costing the company nothing !" - Well the drilling and JV will cost a 70% share in GGP Havieron blocks - which looks like it will turn out to be bargain of the century.
They also have option for other 5% at fair market value and first refusal on rest of Paterson GGP Blocks.

Bonkers day today, I cannot normally watch all day - but can at the moment.
JV was also good deal for GGP and the shareholders, lets just keep hoping HAV turns out to be huge as it really gives GGP a very strong negotiating position going forward.

Old timer, I am happy with that as well. Day is not done yet. I am playing long game anyway and may regret it, but hey ho. I am happy with my position.
I think it is 3 years before any gold comes out of ground at HAV. I believe GGP will sell it before then, but not until we know what is there. The RNS that will be forthcoming over next 6 months will be interesting.

I have a fill order at 3.5. Be very happy if it’s filled. Be a good top up. May go lower, but my personal target price is 10p and that’s not far from 200% profit in the long term, hopefully by year end.

GLA

If you look at Cadia East deep underground mine - up to 1900 metres - feasibilty study was completed 2009, first production 2013 - with continued construction during this time and full production in 2017

https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/cadia/

Mercedesman - I am not a miner with no knowledge of mining, but if you look at my post at about 11.12 with the link to Block Caving mining - it does not happen quickly - but maybe NC could start with alternative methods which are quicker (open pit) but I thought HAV ore resource is from 400 metres downwards - so open pit not an option? I know Newcrest are world experts at BC mining - but would be good to get more info on timings required for construction

I think HAV will take longer to setup for mining - happy to be proved wrong - and we may not know true RME by end of 2020 if they keep drilling deeper and do not find the edge

But I still see all this as positive - and is for LTH - think 2020 will be slow progress maybe with some ups/downs to 10p, unless GH decides to sell HAV and use this to fund the other exploration prospects

Jambo

None of us will have seen the detailed JV agreement, I have only seen GGP slides, but I would say if feasibility study comes up with a decline to mine early and confirm drill results - then I think NC will qualify for their 70%. GGP probably have to agree - but mining could start before we know the final size of the resource.

This is one of GGP's Exploration principles "Where possible, retain 100% ownership of the project in order to provide flexibility to accelerate range of options for development and eventual monetisation (sale, joint venture, spin out via IPO)"

Depending the value of HAV, and the money required to fully drill the other prospects, maybe HAV sale or income from mining might be used to avoid JV on any of the other prospects.

https://www.geoengineer.org/news/block-caving-a-new-mining-method-arises is a good article on block caving - so there would be some construction and costs at HAV - not sure how long it takes to set up the block cave equipment? From what I have read this can take several years?
How deep can you block cave down to? Cannot find this anywhere.

Interesting times ahead.