Member Info for thelearner

There can be no forecasts for Scallywag until some drills - and likely many drills go in the ground. Currently it's a very nice prospect with potential - and it's value currently is what someone is willing to pay for it - knowing they will have to spend a few million $ to see if it has any potential.
I certainly would not want it sold until we have put drills in the ground - risk for GGP is it comes up blank - but they think chances of that are very low.

1ghandi - yes I think you are correct. It's certainly worrying me.
Have worked hard all my life, still working but also have decent pension which inflation would destroy. Inflation is great way for governments to deal with debt. Have paid all my taxes - plenty of - but
Have a lot of oil shares - and healthy cash savings for my retirement which I also have concerns about, but tend not to worry about it - as worrying does no good. Have saved all my life for retirement, and to give something to the kids.

Wonder if I should buy a new big house and a sports car.
I have no problems though compared to many. Very fortunate but worked hard to be in this position.

Fira - not sure anyone would buy LC - you'd have to give it away. Best bet is to give away a chunk in a JV for the capital required to get it going. I think that's what they have been working on.

At 2p, way I feel now I'd be delighted and away. I'd be happy with my average which I think is 1.3. I did consider averaging down, but this share has had enough of my hard earned.
People could be off chasing rainbows. I have sort of now written off my investment here. I did consider selling at turn of year, and investing my 30% remaining of my investment in GGP or CNR - gold. Arbitration, and possibly a bit of false hope on LC stopped me - big mistake on my part.
I am still hopeful we can make some progress with LC - but no update on the permits we were waiting on, but Aus out of lockdown now - things might improve. I hope so.

GLA

Thanks Paddy - maybe the decline area - hope not - I hope they cannot find out where to put the exploration decline as everywhere they look they find more gold!

Interesting article from Rio chairman
https://www.australianmining.com.au/news/rio-tinto-eyes-ma-opportunities-amid-covid-19-uncertainties/

Unfortunately the oil drilling guys are having a very hard time of it again just now - easiest way to stop spending cash - stop drilling and postpone. Lot of good people where I live will be out of work again.
If drilling for gold has advanced as much as drilling for oil, then there will be a huge difference. Mind you - the drill rigs at Hav are tiny compared to an offshore oil drilling rig.

Think there are a few oily's (workers) on this board

This makes me very happy - we are heading much higher - but it will take time to get there - this board gets ahead of itself at times - I get happier every day with my investment here - but will never be quick enough for some! Incredible amount of posts - can never keep up.

Stebol

I think you are saying NC trying to buy GGP just now would open this up to other bidders and risk their JV terms?
I do not think it would - if anyone managed to buy GGP now - only thing that would change for NC would be the partner - they still spend their $45 million and end up 70% owners? The new owner would have to honour the JV terms.

I still think it's a long game in play - yes NC could try and buy GGP on the cheap, it will not happen imho. NC also need to ensure any purchase they make is acceptable to their board and shareholders - they will be willing to take some financial risk, but it would be much safer waiting until results of feasibilty study are know and they have a pretty good MRE (not the initial one) and know mine life and future profits. They have the right to buy 5% at"fair value" and I cannot see how you would arrive at that figure until you know how much gold and copper there is in the ground? They are going to own 70% for not a lot of money anway. Don't think they need to rush. If they want Scally - be safer keeping on good terms with GGP and doing another JV.

Interesting year ahead. Slow and steady increase in resource and SP hopefully.

Magic - I have been a white rum drinker all my life, you will know the one, with coke - but recently have taken a liking to the dark stuff. I particularity like the spiced version of my white rum, but also enjoy the other variances.

I am only half way through your presentation - the rocks I am used to contain the black stuff. I'm an engineer so find the geology strange. But I also went to see Professor Brian Box live show about the scale of universe and time - now that really blew my mind.

Point 2 - open at depth still excites me the most. But I have another question if anyone can answer?

"Exploration Decline" this is what the decline was called at Cadia, and this is what it is called in the May 2020 GGP slides. So if you are building an exploration decline - why would you build it in an area of the mine you know contains nothing?

This article is used as my reference - from which I have taken the below on page 51
https://www.redpathmining.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Block-Caving_Mining-Magazine-June-2012.pdf
"“A number of projects today first establish some form of exploration access (shaft or decline), which serves as a
platform to gain orebody knowledge,”
Mr Hanrahan tells MM. “The benefit of establishing this exploration access is that underground conditions can be experienced firsthand, particularly rock and stress conditions that assist in determining cavability and fragmentation. This early development is also of great benefit in determining development advance rates that can be used in project scheduling. An ultimate benefit is that the infrastructure can then be used to initiate a full project development programme or works.”"

So obviously very important where you put the decline?
I think Newcrest will be keen to complete stage 3 - which includes the pre-feasibility report. They already know Telfer processing plant capabilities and costs, and can give options for getting ore to Telfer, and the construction of the Exploration Decline will give vital information for the Feasibility Study - which must be completed to complete Stage 4, and which GGP must contribute their share of any cost above $20million - if it should exceed this.

I do not think the costs of the Expl Decline will be part of the Feasibility study - unless agreed by GGP?

This is not a short term hold to get the full value of this investment. Yes SP will fluctuate, and traders will make money, but I will be holding and hoping for in excess of 20 million Oz's - we can but hope.
Topped up again today. Averaging up - never thought I would do this.

Wondergoals and Tester - excellent posts.
Does anyone know how much work/money/time it would take, to prove this up to 5Moz - from Wondergoals Post

- potential expansion of resource from 2.3m oz to district-wide 5m oz
- CNR currently valued at around 1/3 of peers

I will be continuing to hold here - delighted with all the recent news after a pretty gloomy time.

TSX - I bought some shares in a junior gold explorer through HL on TSX - not expecting any issues - the company then did a 10:1 reconciliation, and at the same time changed it's UK broker or intermediary - the shares were then frozen for me to trade, until HL got all the block held shares changed to individual share certs with a new broker - I was frozen out of trading for month's - did not matter too much as the price dropped by about 75%, and then when I could trade, only phone trading. The good side is they have now recovered to where I am just above break even. I was tempted to punt them and put my money here or GGP, both of which I think are pretty derisked, but do not know how long it will take to get the funds.

So I am now very nervous about trading across borders - especially in very small companies.

was not so log ago as 2012 for me to be blue - I remember on Friday afternoon thinking about taking some profits, just before the Nicaraguan troubles started. I averaged down while the price was near 20p, and my average is now 34p - so back in blue again and holding.
Quite hopeful and it's great seeing the good information coming out.

RNS referred to by TimerTrader - thank you never knew that - very nice for Pacific - I'd seen other RNS but not that one.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/GGP/13306300.html

Paddy - I think what Ipad meant was not as generous to the JV partner, i.e. GGP would not have to give up so large a % to get a JV. I agree with Ipad here.

Pure speculation - as costs will become clear until completion of pre-feasibility and feasibility reports. Cadia East Underground development cost 2010 - £1billion. 10 years later - will have increased, and we have to move the ore 45 km to the mine. Say HAV project costs £1.5billion. 25% share would be £375 million.
Telfer can process 700,000 oz's gold per year - it has in the past. Let's say $1500 per oz, less $350 per oz AISC, that's £644 million per annum, 25% of that is £161 million - 3 years to pay back the project costs.
If it was a 15 moz mine, that's 21.5 years production at 700,000 ozs per year - and those figures are without the copper - which is also significant.

So the completion of the feasibility study will be very exciting for us. Those figures above are pure guesses based on Cadia East figures.

We have really great guys in charge of GGP. They are looking to maximise shareholder value, and we have a fantastic asset at HAV - with potentially others to find in Paterson.

Cadia East Underground Mine - developed by Newcrest - this article is my source https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/cadia/ but I find some bits a bit misleading.
It states Newcrest 2007 annual report pre-feasibility study showed projected reserves of 15.5 moz gold, and 2.24 million tonnes copper.
It then states the pre-feasibility study was completed in the middle of 2009, the feasibility study was completed at end 2009, and construction started in 2010 - with first production Jan 13 and full production in 2017.
The mineralisation is 600m wide and 1.9 km deep. In 2009 reserves were updated to 33.2 moz gold, and 6.59 million tonnes of copper.

It would appear that during pre-feasibilty and feasibilty studies, underground access was established by via an exploration decline - sound familiar - article says $100million AUS was approved on 2004 to construct the decline.

Total cost of the Cadia east project $1.9 billion AUS, initial AISC $100 per oz, life of mine AISC $250 per oz.

Now I am definitely not a miner - but would welcome comments from others who know more about mining - Cadia East Underground and Haverion seem to have plenty in common? Newcrest have done all this already. I am not surprised at how excited they are by this.

Sharkface - I do not post too much on here, but if you check my history - you will see I do a lot of research, and have always stated I am here for the long term, not for a quick in/out profit - I believe the rewards will come later - always have thought this - but the potential time line is hard to work out. I have already multi bagged - even with my last top up at 7.8p, my average is still 2.4. I will not sell until I think we are at the point we have most value - and if GH decides to keep the 30% and pay dividends, will probably still hold - Scally and the other prospects also excite me.

Stebol - I think NC will want stage 3 completed long before July next year, and with the processing facility already at Telfer - I do not think the Pre-Feasibilty study will take that long - they are in a hurry and at end of stage 3 - become the majority shareholders.
The feasibilty study will take much longer - but that is stage 4.
I always think looking at Cadia is interesting - hard finding a timeline. Haverion we do not have to build a processing plant - so it's just how to mine, and how to get the ore to Telfer.

https://www.fluor.com/projects/cadia-east-gold-copper-mine-epc Article from the main contractor for Cadia East who did the feasibility study. I have not yet found who did the PFS - or a decent timeline - will continue looking when I have more time.

Schlemiel - you know I agree NC have got bargain of the century - $65million US for HAV.

However GGP bought the licences for 100% ownership of HAV for $25,000 AUS + issuance of 65.5 million shares at 0.1p, which is £65.5K - pretty good deal?
https://greatlandgold.com/acquisition-of-havieron-project/

Sharkface - good post. Questions
1. Stage 3 completion - could this be completed before July - requires the minimum spend, which I suspect will be long before July, and the completion of the pre-feasibility study. Again - could be done, based on current result analysis of minimum MRE, and should give estimates of project costs (rough)
2. GGP fundraising for stage 4. GGP only stage 4 costs, are their share (40%) of feasibility study costs above $20 million US. Typical feasibility study costs are 0.5 to 1.5% of project cost - and important not to rush it. This means project costs >$1.33 billion US before GGP start incurring costs.
3. Feasibility study - good chance this will require continued drilling - so that could push up feasibility study costs - but these should be estimated in pre-feasibilty study.

If GGP need to fun raise for stage 4 - do not think this will be an issue.