Member Info for thelearner

Scallywag - my preference is no JV yet with NC until we get some holes in the ground. Again a JV takes the risk away from GGP in terms of drilling capital costs, but you have to give away a high % of what you probably find in the ground.

My preference is to put some drills in Scally purely funded by GGP and hope we get some good results. The quicker we can do this the better. Then we can decide whether to JV or not. If we do sell our 30% of Hav - we can fund all the drilling ourselves easily.

So as I have said all along - the SP increase has been great, and I think will continue - but not that quickly - hope I am wrong.
People who want a quick profit will take it and move on - it's just hard deciding when that point is.
I am prepared to wait, to get maximum value.
Another block caving article
https://www.mining-technology.com/mining-safety/world-day-for-safety-and-health-at-work-the-technologies-keeping-miners-safe

Have posted about this before.
The design of the block caving operation is crucial when developing a new mine. Some key things are required.
1. The shape and size of the Ore Body - we are some way off determining this - but not a bad sign - as it keeps growing.
2. The suitability of the ore body rock to caving - i.e. will it fragment and collapse - or will it need "assistance" to do this

Until we have the answer to point 1, it is not too difficult to know where the decline is going to be - but it cannot be in any area that you want to recover the gold and copper from.
This is a very good video on you tube about block caving.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=PFVUqy3a6WQ
Block caving mine design and construction takes time , 2 to 3 years until first production, and should not be rushed.
The CAPEX costs for Block or Panel caving are high, and require deep pockets - and mean a wait on return of capital. However operating costs are very low. Also many miners are now using automation, autonomous vehicles and conveyor systems and lift shafts to extract the ore to surface. I think NC may be planning this at Red Chris.

I think for NC - their number 1 desire and the haste they are showing is because they have a fully operational mine at Telfer which needs new feed ASAP.
If we do find some mineralised resource at shallower levels which could be conventionally mined, this would be a great option for the development of Haverion. There is now some talk of this being a possibility in the last result report? But not a certainty.

I think there is a high probability we have a T2 or T1 discovery at Haverion. NC are definitely going to mine this - and the concept study being produced by NC in 2nd half of 2020 will be fascinating and give us a fair idea.
GGP - if they decide to go mining - are fortunate in CAPEX terms that there is no CAPEX for a mine - this helps, but means a much longer term wait for returns, as 2 to 3 years for production, then initial 1 to 2 years to repay CAPEX costs before a real cash profit hits the books.
So the option to sell the 30% of Haverion to NC or anyone else will require a buyer with deep pockets, prepared to invest a large sum which will give good profits over a long number of years.

This is where buyers will be taking a long term view, and considering factors like gold supply and demand, and the long term prediction for the share price - any long term investment carries risk - i.e. gold price collapse. So if GGP sell the 30% - it will be well discounted on the value of the predicted recoverable Gold and Copper ore. They have to allow for production costs, costs of CAPEX and a margin for risk. GGP decides if it wants to take the quick return, or take the long term view and accept this same risk.

Thanks Spy, I agree with you there - treat everyone the same no matter their holding.
I've only been investing in AIM for just over a couple of years - came in with my eyes open, high risk and the chances of the high reward are not too good, you need to have loads of time to research and dare I say it trade. I don't have this time.
Have I been influenced by others? Yes - would not really be human if you were not.
SML - I think I got carried away with the board - and thought nothing could go wrong - and many of us ignored warnings from posters - but more importantly ignored other warning signs. Down a lot on that one - will I ever break even - I hope so.
CNR I was heavily influenced by Jim Mellon building a stake in company - and still convinced this will do well in the long term. I was down a long time but now showing a profit.
GGP - I did my research, this board was great for info, and because of the above 2 I was very cautious putting money in - but has turned out great - so far.

The above two, I had opportunities to take profit and never. CNR - I still worry about Nicaragua.
Here - I think I am completely derisked - and in for the long term. Looking for maximum value - not a quick profit.

It's getting harder to read the whole board though and follow the threads - and I am sure missing some great posts - been working long hours - makes it harder.

Hi Spy - genuinely interested - how could someone use the amount i hold against me - I have shared the amount of my holdings in individual companies on a few boards in here?

What about an Aston Martin with a ceramic car wrap of Paddy's map? :-)

The great news just keeps on coming from Haverion. Much more mineralisation discovered and still open at Depth and to the NW. Fantastic.
Concept study in 2nd half of 2020 to detail bulk and underground mining options. Superb news.

Not concerned at all and would not cause me to sell up and go but each to their own.
We have a world class partner. I agree with Welsh Falcon and Jerryspaniel.
We can be an explorer and have shares in long term very profitable mines. I hope mines becomes plural.

First Refusal - not too concerning for me - GGP still have full control - do not need to sell anything - and first refusal means NC have the right to match any other offers from competitors. So could get very interesting. Off to read RNS

When I first invested in GGP - April 2019, my target price was 10p.
As the results and news got better at Haverion - my target changed to 20p. However - I feel there could be much more good news to come. When you listen to interviews from GH and Newcrest, it is all so positive, and if Hamman are correct "unique Tier 1 resource" - then I think my target is still low - even for Haverion.

It's hard to put a figure on a complete buyout of GGP. Those looking for a quick return, this is the best option, my own personal view is that GH/CB would not recommend this - purely due to the potential and their confidence in the other licensed blocks. But how could I be disappointed with 25p - would be 9 bagger for me, although I'd be disappointed to be sold before the final MRE and feasibility study is concluded.

To get the full value will take at least 2 years I think, possibly longer, but if GGP put some holes in Scally this year, and they have really good results - a complete buy out could be on the cards at the end of the year for well North of 25p.

Hydrogen - very interesting - did not know that. But what happens if the company grows and leaves the AIM Index - is the IHT benefit still in place?

Marmaris - that depends on the value of the SIPP - and how much you contribute per year

Annual allowance - think it is £40K, Lifetime Allowance £1 million - above that tax rate is 55% if you take it out as not income

Was too busy at work yesterday to look at the board. Have read back a lot of pages.

Why would NC stop exploration? For a very low spend in completing the JV, they get to own 70% of HAV. Even if another company bought GGP, the terms of the JV would still leave NC in the driving seat.
Also would be paying the rigs and crews for doing nothing. NC have already stated their priority is finding where to build the exploration decline?

What could change their plans? Finding loads at shallow depth which means not such a priority for deep caving in the short term, and getting decent feed to Telfer quicker? Unlikely IMHO.

Sad if Spy has been banned.
I continue to hold. GLA.

I have never looked too much at the gold market, but like anything else surely the main driver for price will be supply and demand, and the demand would include investment and safe haven demand?
Interesting chart
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-supply-and-demand-statistics
The supply side seems to be just greater than demand, some gold is recycled but the amount of mined gold seems pretty steady for the last 10 years.
The demand side is also interesting, biggest demand and pretty steady is jewellery, investment demand varies quite a bit, and even although the gold price is increasing, still has not reached highs of 20111/2012 according to that chart.

So the miners - yes would like to increase production and discover more to grow their companies and profits - but also must ensure a glut of big discoveries would not increase supply to their detriment. This is what causes the huge swings in oil prices - supply and demand.

So even if we find another huge find in the other tenements - there might not be the same rush as there is from Nrewcrest with Haverion, this is to keep feeding Telfer.

https://www.gold.org/about-gold/gold-supply/gold-mining/how-much-gold
all the gold in the world would fit in a cube less than 22m across - not really very big. This article says it's virtually indestructible, and lots does get recycled.
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/historical-mine-production
Interesting map and world production figures - Australia second to China.

Interesting views on other stocks.
I opened our first stocks and shares ISA's in 2010. I already had a healthy portfolio of a single oil stock.
I largely invested in funds, letting fund managers do the job for me, and most have done OK, except for the Woodford funds which were heavily sold by HL and into which I invested heavily.

My first AIM stock was CNR in Sept 17 - after seeing it being tipped by Jim Mellon. Have added and held ever since, waiting for us to start mining in Ecuador. I am currently in profit, not much, but was down for a long period, but very hopeful for the future, of at least a double bag and maybe more.

My next AIM stock was SML, March 2018, Australian copper miner and junior explorer, with a very attractive Tin Resource in Cornwall, and income from Magnetite sales in New Mexico. I was really sold in this one, bought in very heavily and 50% down. But again I have some hope for the future, but could go wrong.

At the same time bought a junior Canadian mining explorer - Northern Superior, on the recommendation of a colleague. Been well down in this one, and about 30% down, but still have a little hope. Sprott is invested here.

Then April 19 started buying GGP. Loving this journey. My average is 2.7 so already a multi bagger for me with much more to come I feel.

Those are my big investments, I also have smaller ones in RKH - disaster - have held when I should have sold, BCN, again should have sold, and AGL which I am hopeful for. Have held a few others including SXX where I have taken a profit and gone.

What have I learned, AIM is a dangerous place and easy to lose a load of cash. I was more encouraged to try here when Woodford all went wrong. I am often tempted by some of the other shares I see tipped here, and have a look but always research before buying.
I can see how money can be made trading on AIM, but I simply do not have the time to be watching and dealing all the time and don't use stop losses or sell orders.
However - it's more interesting than 2% in the bank if you are lucky, and over the long term I am doing OK.

Not sure if NC will make a bid. The interesting play would be if Rio came in and made a bid for all of GGP.
Could any bidder could make an offer of a special category of share, where a dividend or another share allocation is made in the future based on the MRE's of the other GGP prospects - that sort of derisks a complete takeover for both parties?

Also if RIO bid for whole of GGP - NC only have first refusal on the Hav blocks I think - up until the end of the JV.

Just now huge risk for any cpy buying GGP that the other blocks do not have major doscoveries
Just now huge risk for us GGP shareholders that we sell the other blocks cheaply and then they make more huge finds
Like many I am just watching and holding. I topped up on CNR last week - mistake - should have put it here - hindsight - wonderful.

We just have to place our faith in GH. I am full of hope. If Paddy's prediction of the double horseshoe comes to fruition - will be amazing.

RedJordy
Have been interested in Sprott for a while. I am invested in. Canadian junior explorer, after a friend ad colleague raved about the company, and Sprott was invested.

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/782-tsx-venture/sup/59052-eric-sprott-announces-holdings-in-northern-superior-resources.html

However, been waiting a while for the expected price spike, did the opposite actually despite promising drilling results. Also could not trade shares on HL for about 9 months after firm changed uk share handling agent. Not good in a volatile share. Was down 80%. Down maybe 30% now. Still holding and hoping.

The forecast for magentite is strong - let's hope the market grows in the USA. SML have already said the market and sales had not been impacted by Covid-19.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/magnetite-nanoparticles-market-size-worth-87-4-million-by-2025-grand-view-research-inc-300933617.html

Lets hope Cobre can keep covering costs and producing revenue until we can get LC producing revenue.

Agreed - result of arbitration could not have been better. Just a pity the Major Clint seems to be in the hands of the receiver. We just need to hope that there are some assets with value to be disposed of. Eventually all the long suffering shareholders will know the full story.

The ask is shown on here as 9.40p, but 10p on google - so assuming google is correct? On HL is is showing 9.35 sell 9.50 buy?

Hope you are wrong about mid 30's munchbox - I just took another £5k - if Jim Mellon is putting another large chunk of cash in he is very confident about the future.
I hope some of this money will be put to use drilling and proving more resource.
Must admit - I was tempted to top slice at 64p - hindsight is wonderful.