Member Info for thelearner

I do not think there is any chance of a JV on Scallywag - not yet.
NC got the bargain of the century with the JV for HAV - but this deal was also good for GGP as we would not be where we are now.
If we can drill a few holes with good results on our own at Scally - then we will be able to negotiate a much better JV at Scally - and could base the final % given up based on the MRE - need to look for better terms for GGP - IMHO. Also if NC want 100% of HAV - a JV at scally could increase the price and help the negotiations.

What is GGP's share of Haverion worth? It's simple - whatever Newcrest want to pay for it, or whatever somebody else wants to pay for it.
At the end of the JV - GGP as a partner in the project have to find the money to pay their share of the development costs.
NC has an option to buy 5% share at "fair market value" - so there will be some mechanism and negotiation for this - and this will provide GGP with some funds.
At this time - we may not even have an accurate MRE - as NC will decide to build the mine and keep evaluating the resource. GGP could negotiate some staging in the value of the 5% share based on the final MRE.
This will then also put a value on the remaining 25% share. GGP will then have to decide to sell, or stay as a partner taking the profits year by year as the mine operates. The other option is to created a new company with the 25% share, and float the shares on the open market - but this would need to be underwritten and could be costly.

Then GGP have all the other licence areas they own - and the value now is again what someone would be prepared to buy these out. GGP have the option to go drilling (that's what an exploration company does) - but this needs funds. Then if we find good discoveries - we will be quids in - if we find nothing - we have wasted our money - again that's gold exploration. JV spreads the risk - but you may have to give away a large chunk of the potential in a JV - aka Hav. But the JV with NC has brought value to GGP much quicker than would have been if they had been going alone.

In my opinion - we won't know the real value until at least the end of the year - the maiden MRE in the second half of this year may not be the final one - I am hoping not as I hope Hav keeps getting bigger as the drilling progresses.

GLA

Coming down to CEO of Newcrest and what he says - remember - even although NC during the JV period - are in charge of total management of Haverion (and will be once they own more than 50%) - GGP have a staff member on the JV management board and have access to all the drilling data. GH will be looking after the interests of GGP shareholders.

I was going to say about funds - invested heavily in Woodford - though this could not go wrong - well how wrong was I - been a disaster - and feel Mr Woodford has got off lightly - and still had the nerve to charge the investors when no longer managing. So I have a healthy spread now across many different fund managers.

Some really great posts on here today. I am pretty much a Novice investor too - I started investing purely in funds, thinking I am going to leave this to the professionals - and most have done well - but they too fluctuate a lot - and learning when to sell and buy back in is an art - and one I am not good at - but I take the long term view.

I then decided to have a few punts on aim - have made a few small profits - but then picked a firm I really believed in, was introduced to it by watching Jim Mellon raving about it and he was investing in it - junior gold explorer in Nicaragua - then Ross Beatty also invested.
One Friday afternoon - I was watching my investment, showing healthy profit - thought about selling some - never - then the Nic political crisis blew up and the share price crashed. I bought some more around the bottom - and now - even in this environment - I am now almost back at break even - and think I will still make a decent profit in this share. But will not be so hesitant to take a profit.

I then invested in another junior miner, no debt, and income stream covering all expenses, and bought - then the price started falling - and I kept buying - and even when warning signs appeared that the major client providing the bulk of the income may have problems - and that the cooper mine being developed in WA might be having some issues - I ignored these - and could have sold at a profit and have held - and now sitting on a pretty big loss - they own a tin mine in Cornwall - so have a good asset - but think this will be long hold to get my money back - I'd be happy to break even.

Then GGP. I am sitting on a healthy profit. My average is 2.4p. My target has always been 10p - based purely on HAV and GGP selling it to NC - if the results were as good as the potential showed. However I also believe we have huge potential on the other Paterson blocks.
HAV - we have not found the limits yet, at depth or in spread size, NC have won the lottery there with the JV agreement, and I think they will want to own 100% on HAV. The main reason for having partners is to spread risk, and this is better if you have a partner with a lot of financial muscle. GGP will have to find 30% of the development costs for the HAV mine - this could be by selling 5% to NC and then holding 25% and waiting for the mine profits to come in over the mine lifetime. GH and the board will decide, but it will depend on the offers from NC - or others.
I would then like GH to do some drill at Scallywag - and then - if we get good results - we could do another JV - but at much better terms than we did with HAV - with % based on discovered reserves.

I cannot tell you what my strategy will be for GGP yet - but I am prepared to hold - hoping for more good drilling results - I bought more last week at 5.2p, and I will be happy if I can double this.

GLA

I just took another 5K's worth - so typical it starts dropping back after I buy - LOL. In for the long haul and my average is good - so quite relaxed about this.

Kicking myself - very busy at work - put in a fill order yesterday morning at 4.3p - missed - was intending another 2 x £5K top ups in ISA. Should have went higher.
Not complaining - have 1.8 million at about 2.3 average. Not all in ISA though and good chunk in SIPP with tax liability.
Not sure we will see it fall below this level again - may hunt around for something else.

GLA

From what I have read, Newcrest seem to know what they are doing with regard to running the camp and the drilling operation. They seem to have good screening processes, will have upped things like cleaning and checks on staff, and if a Covid-19 symptomatic person appears - I would say they will have already plans to quarantine and then evac the person.

They are also quite isolated in a barely populated area - which should help. No great threat to drilling programme I don't think.

I think this is a sound move by GH. I am involved in trying to keep operational sites running just now - it is extremely challenging and costly - and would not take much to shut us down. Postponement of drilling at Scally won't hurt us too much - short term measure. Logistics etc extremely difficult at the moment.

How close to the Northern edge of the licenced block are they getting now. Is it Artemis block to the North?

Also have seen in Costco and supermarkets - when there is no loo roll - the kitchen roll flies of the shelves - so yes this will cause blockages. The panic buying has been crazy. Freezers are sold out everywhere.
In Europe in the countries ahead of us in timing of the outbreak - shelves appear to be full in the shops.

Applegarth - sorry to hear about your wife - my mother had COPD in one lung (smoking we think when younger) and we lost her 4 weeks ago - and she would have been in grave danger from Coronoa anyway.

Ventilators - yes the UK is short - hopefully some of our top engineering firms are on the case - and even saw the following story today
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/medical-ventilator-could-be-manufactured-in-a-matter-of-days-39061534.html

I hope the UK Gov are looking at existing drugs being used for treatment of the worst cases - this would possibly also ease the strain on ventilators/NHS.
There are loads of experts working on vaccine - which would be the ultimate solution - for this virus anyway - but appears some time away.
Rapid development of self test kits would also be a great help - we really don't know true infection numbers - only have accurate death numbers and infected who are in hospital. One you have had an and recovered - should be immune and can stop isolation - but you need to be sure it was Covid-19. I had something in January which was exactly same symptoms - but my wife never caught it so think it was another cold/flu virus.
Testing kits with antibodies sounds great when we get them - I also read the anitbodies only stay in the system about 30 days after the infection is gone - don't know how true that is.

The world will learn a lot from this one - I hope - as there could easily be more of these in future.

OIlMonkey - good luck to you all out there - I worked in the North Sea for a lot of years and in a support role currently. It's easy to forget we need power and heating for hospitals - and homes and fuel for delivery lorries - so the energy coming from offshore and going to power stations and refineries is vital for our country at this time.

Been pretty busy and not reading all the posts here. But as usual great work from Paddy. For those who moved to cash early - well done - you are wise. I have been very busy and just left my portfolios - so like many more are hoping that the world in the long term can recover from this and we can get back to normal. I might buy some more GGP. I am lucky I can do this.

One thing is for sure - the world and every country has a lot of lessons to learn from this - because even when we get this one under control - there could easily be another.

https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/20200211-GGP-Presentation-February-2020.pdf page 7 on the slide show shows summary of JV stages

Cannot read all the posts - I topped up today with a fill order - was at 4.3 so could have got in lower but happy with that.

I have a fair bit of oil shares - but they will recover. Still not convinced it's only Saudi/Russia - the US Shale market will be suffering hugely - they have the highest B/E productions costs and most are heavy with debt, really heavy.

OT - yes I agree further steps will seek to stop especially the "highest risk" population from mixing, not sure how feasible it is to stop everyone mixing. Even in the parts of Italy in lockdown, trains are still running outwith the lockdown regions and flights are still operating - they are trying to contain the rapid spread within that region - as China did.

I think the good hygiene practices and self isolation of infected cases are best prevention.

Going travelling ourselves in the near future - to USA - so wondering how or if this could or will be affected.

Sorry link to Ital population demographics http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/italy-population/

OT1963 - I think I am possibly a couple of years older than you and Covid-19 concerns me, but I do wonder if we are getting too concerned too early. We are still in the very early days, and Italy seemed to miss the infections happening in the North and had a very poor "containment" stage.
This page gives a lot of info about the population of Italy, and my rough guess is 1/4 are over 60, which is really the highest risk group.

Italy total cases = 0.012% of the population.

I don't think we should become complacent, and strict measures will need to be taken to protect the "highest risk" population - in the UK and US and other countries - but the vast majority of people will survive this with no issue, and some will not even know they have had it - which probably makes the total number of cases higher.

More interesting figures on this WHO page. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Closed cases, the mortality rate is 6% which is higher than being reported, active cases 86% are rated Mild and 14% rated serious or critical.

The markets though do not always act rationally. I am very confident though in GGP, topped up Friday - usual for me missed the low! I will top again this week if the price dips again. Busy so have to place fill order - so always a gamble.

GLA with GGP and Covid-19 - read all the very good advice from the Gov and follow it - we can do no more.

Topped up 5k. Some more into sticky hands.

I agree GGP SP has performed well compared to the markets in last couple of weeks - which has disappointed me as was looking for a lower cost top up point, and I am not here to trade.
Just trying to decide whether to top up now.
My gut tells me the next set of results will continue to be very positive, as HAV is still open in several directions - so there is hope for a good increase in reserve size.

My main portfolios are down, but that is what happens - eventually they will recover - Covid-19, although not good will be temporary, just hope it does not take some good businesses out. Flybe was not in good shape, but the commercially viable routes will be taken by others and hopefully many jobs will be saved.
GGP and CNR are doing very well for me in my portfolio just now - hopefully they will both increase significantly this year.