Member Info for thelearner

Except very hard to rule out Scallywag as being viable on the limited drilling carried out.
Also why not go to PRE/BlackHills as planned - maybe want to back to some of the Scally targets with the money earmarked for PRE?

Since last night I have been mulling this over in my head.
The Juri JV is very good for NC - how I read it is $3m AU exploration spend for 25%, this takes their ownership to 51% and if they do not spend $3m in the required period - this is paid to GGP. They can then spend another $17m AU to take ownership to 75%.
It's a huge area - and the only thing that makes sense to me is the explanation by some of our excellent posters here about the cost of exploration, and GGP only paying 25% of these costs probably balances against the potential gains.
And GGP get to manage the exploration in 2021 and I would imagine the spend up to £3m - although not sure how much control over this NC have.

I was in the camp looking for a JV at better terms - but I have faith in GH/CB - so trust what they have done.
I also think others will not come to the table for JV while NC have first refusal.

By doing this deal GGP have also saved the PRE drilling money which can now be used for further drilling at Scally.
Also NC will be at end of JV stage 4 for HAV by end 2021 - they are not going to slow down, and then their first refusal option on Scally ends, and we would be able to negotiate more seriously with others.

Also our other licences are not part of the HAV deal that gives NC first refusal.
Just hoping Scally results are great - but I have always said regardless of first drills - more drilling will be required to prove it up - and to enable us to get a better JV deal.

GLA - really now waiting on the scallywag results. Still sitting on hands.

Bamps, maybe you have an excellent point there. Huge drilling costs required. At end of Juri JV, we will only be liable for 25% of costs. It costs a lot to become a miner. GH and CB have done great for GGP. We just have to keep trusting them.

Sandgrounded.
The JV required a spend of US 65mil and a FS to get to end of stage 4. We were supposed to see PFS at end of stage 3, and GGP must have agreed Stage 3 can be completed without this. NC could have stopped and waited and done FS to get to 70%, as they will have met the spend $ already. Not in the interests of any of the 2 partners to wait,
Cannot do PFS as HAV keeps getting bigger. Need to drill more and get the decline going, so NC have enabled GGP to meet their share of CAPEX with a loan to keep the project going, NC desperate to get to production with HAV ASAP to feed Telfer, also very good for GGP.

I do worry about scallywag given the terms struck for rest of our Paterson licences. Really hope I am wrong on this though.

Going to be a very interesting few days. GGP RNS must follow and I would also expect to see interviews at least with GGP. Not too huge a deal for NC?
It’s 20 million Australian, which is just under 15 million Us dollars

No GGP will manage the Juri Exploration venture until end 2021 when NC will have the right to be appointed as manager.

Would like to see much more detail - Haverion JV - looks good - loan repaid from either sale of 5% at FMV or from 80% share of profits from Hav production.

The Exploration tie in - potential to earn up to 75% with a spend of AS$20million - would need convincing this is a good deal? I could well be wrong - was hoping not to have to give away such a large % for so little?

I've been carefully reading and involved in what Legalwolf is saying.
I completely agree the GGP BOD did not "giveaway" anything when they negotiated the JV with NC. It was a good deal - there was no certainty about the scale of what the might find. I complexly agree that NC, even although they will greatly go over the required $65million spend before the end of PH4 of JV, have got bargain of the century.
70% of a Tier 1 mine (they already owned part of it Telfer), but GGP have also now got 30% of Tier 1 mine with tolling agreement.

However if Scallywag target initial results are good, I think any JV must be on better terms so the potential gains are shared more equally by both partners - I am sure this can be achieved, but think the "First Refusal" NC have, and this potentially making other major players not willing to enter negotiations may impact any potential JV terms - hopefully not.

Great posts today from many, especially about the potential value of the copper and other minerals.
I am not getting over excited about the next few weeks - but hope I am wrong!

Legalwolf/Tiggerman - was me that kind of started that one pointing out no other majors will seriously consider a JV with GGP - as NC have first refusal - and they also have Telfer.
Put's NC in strong position, but as you both have said NC/GGP have good working relationship.

Kind of makes me think if any of the real big boys want in on the Paterson action - they might look at both NC & GGP - maybe a mega merger or take over - but pure speculation. And very much all depends on results from drilling on our and other tenements in proximity to Telfer.

RIO also though have to develop Winu - so if there were other assets - scale helps with costs etc.

Paterson has an exciting few years ahead of it. Also Australia - very stable env - miners happy to go and build mines there.

Strudel and others - excellent posts

For those who may not be around in 20 years to enjoy the profits, or really just need to take their profits for others reasons in the more near term, many people are willing to pay premium share price for a share which will pay long term solid dividends. And Haverion gets bigger every time we get drilling results.

Lets all just hope that the results from Scallywag are very promising - even then, I don't think I am considering taking profits for a couple of years as think as they drill more of the prospects SP could increase further. If we keep 25% of Hav - also when ore starts being processed SP will like this.

But also possibility GGP could be bought out - or receive buy out offers before then. I too think NC are in prime position compared to others, because they have Telfer. However - as long as NC have first refusal on any JV or any deal on the Paterson licences, would this stop any other major seriously getting into JV discussions, as NC can take it away from them very easily?

I have seen Tymers posting on the GGP board for a long time and think he is a sensible poster - I enjoy his posts.

I sold out of KEFI yesterday and bought more here - not a huge amount - my average here is now 10p. My stake here nothing like my GGP stake. My average there is 3.5p - and IMO huge potential still - but nothing is certain - and bit more from Haverion I think - and the other potential is from the other licences - but will need a shed load more drilling to find out value - assuming there is something there from initial drills. Have not sold a GGP share yet - and maybe I should be taking Tymers advice!

I chose to buy here instead of GGP - but recently bought GGP at 22.5. Think CNR is about to come good as well - which was my first mining investment.

PAT - will have a look at that. Thanks. GLA

At the end of 2019 - my 2020 end oy year target was 10p. Then in Q3 I increased it to 20p. Then I have not set another one.

I like Hydrogen's predications. I don't usually make predictions.
But I will predict if we get a maiden MRE in Dec/Jan - it will double in the following 12-18 months.

I looked at many mine developments - Cadia especially and see how the MRE kept increasing every time they went drilling in the area.

I hope we get the promised concept study with the MRE - but fear we will not - as every time NC puts the drill in the ground - keep finding more. I really want to see how they are going to mine this beast.
I just hope the GGP drill at Scallywag has had the same success. If it has the prediction below of 40p might arrive quicker.

Haverion - will we find more at depth - like many have said - may have to wait until the decline is well on it's way before they explore the deep.
Will there be something reported in the SE - been fascinated by Paddy's latest series of tweets.

Today I dipped out of Kefi - should have taken profits earlier but broke even. Put it in OMI - was torn though between here, there and CNR - I have no doubt here would have been the most derisked - but was not a huge amount.

Did not buy so many as you - your holding is huge - but sold my KEFI today at break even and bought more here - will increase my average but happy here.

I think it would depend on what inside knowledge they have - but I am no expert.
They are currently in a JV and managing the Haverion JV - all above board and agreed with GGP - they are declaring results every 6 weeks - not hiding anything from the market - and yes may have some more info on Haverion not yet released - so need to be careful.
Lets assume they have not been supplied with any market sensitive information from GGP' exploration drilling at other Paterson targets - if they have been shown this - then yes - absolutely they have market sensitive information, so buying GGP shares on the open market in this scenario would probably infringe rules.

Otherwise, if not holding any inside information, if they bought on open market - they would have to show their hand when they owned 3%.

They could do a deal with GGP to buy 10% if GGP issued new shares - I'd not expect this to be at a discount to current share price unless there was something for GGP shareholders to gain from.
Buying 10% of GGP would get them 3% additional ownership of HAV.

What NC will have that others do not have is projections on future profits from their current thinking on investment required to get ore to telfer, and their best guess of how much they can get out of the ground - based on current info, then there is the potential of what else GGP have in their acreage.

I think it could be a very shrewd move. NC also know the state of their company finances and how they would finance such a move.

Interesting times ahead. Appreciate the posts from those who know the gold market well and am reassured the downward dip will just be a small temporary dip. And it's not only gold in the ground - there is the copper and a bit more of other precious metals.

Munchbox/Condor_Forever - I was in CNR long before GGP. But GGP has been outstanding for me.

GGP have 30% of 10 mOz - personally I think that is going to be more at Haverion. The initial MRE won't be 10m - but there will be upgrades to the MRE by the time feasibility study is completed at end of 2021. I thin GGP 30% will be min 5Moz - but I could be wrong.
Haverion - capital required - Telfer mine is there already - with huge spare capacity and toll deal is already in place - so route to production is pretty quick.
Partnered with one of the worlds leading underground miners - in a stable political env. GGP liable for 30% of the capital costs - with a path to sell 5% at Fair Market value which may cover the capital costs.
GGP - have many other licences in the same area - just need to find another 1 like Haverion. May find more - may find none!

I completely understand why you think GGP will do well to bag from current SP - I think they can based on Haverion alone - that's my opinion, but if any of the other targets come good - could certainly multibag. I bag every time GGP increases by 3.5p - so very happy. I think it will be a few years and a lot of drilling to get max value from GGP.

I'd also be delighted if Cnr could be a 10 bagger. I have topped up here and GGP lately, but been topping up at GGP latterly. My average here is 32.5 - not bad when I was buying at 67p a good while ago.
I'd be very happy here with toll mining deal - if it gave us more cash to go drilling and prove up more reserves while building the mine. Cnr also have a lot of very attractive acreage to explore.

SAS - I already was above LTA. I had a small DC Sipp - which I invested in GGP and SML. My aim was to grow it to pay the 55% tax charge when I took it out for a holiday. It's now 900% higher.
I am over the moon with this - and have now decided to try and keep growing this - although don't expect to repeat the success of GGP - I'll sell GGP when I think the time is right.

Fantastic result for you getting to LTA - hope you are not close to one of the chargeable events on your SIPP. Let GGP keep growing it.

Govt is going to come looking for those with wealth to start paying back the national debt. Hence why I'd rather use my funds to make the kids mortgage free than pay the tax - I don't mind paying my taxes - and have been fortunate to have to pay a lot - but I'd like to manage the distribution of my GGP profits instead of the tax man.

GLA

I am never good at exiting an investment - so do not listen to me!

I started buying GGP at 1.5p. I had a target and exit planned for 10p, end of 2020. When 10p came, I still thought the upside was huge, so changed my target to 20p, got there and still saw huge upside - so held. Even when we hit 26p - I was still seeing upside, and still am.
I stopped buying around 13p - which was a mistake and have since topped up at 19.5 and 22.5.

I now have no exit strategy. I am just watching and waiting.
Next big potential change will be the Scally drilling results. If these are exceptional, I'd not be surprised if GGP are not approached for takeover by one of the majors. At the very least I think we will be able to get JV at much better terms that we had with Haverion.

Next big potential news for me (apart from the normal drilling updates which keep seeing the Haverion resource grow) would be the promised concept study from Newcrest - which it would make sense to arrive along with the MRE.

Like everyone, I'd like the SP to grow as much as possible as soon as possible, but realise max value could take years - unless we are bought out. I really would like to take some profit next year - but and loathe to sell when I still see huge upside.

Top slicing - have never done it - too busy working - but well done to those who have, and who have either bought back lower to increase holding, or done something nice with their profits. My profit is not really for me - for the family is my aim - would love my kids to be mortgage free in nice homes. GGP will maybe just deliver this to us.

https://www.apa.com.au/our-services/gas-transmission/west-coast-grid/telfer-gas-pipeline/

there you go Bamps - I had read before that a gas pipeline was installed to Telfer and a not too complicated diagram

https://www.apa.com.au/globalassets/documents/info/schematic/tgp-diagram.pdf

Ggp takeover target?
Nobody is listed as owning more than 3% of shares, which they would have to declare https://greatlandgold.com/company/

Ggp need to issue 147 million shares to Pacific Trends Resources on rescission to mine. That must be close.

Question for anyone wanting to buy GGP is how much would it cost them, what is the potential upside and what is the risk of not getting to the projected upside?
There are still huge unknowns, what will be the true value of Haverion and the 30%, won’t know for at least a year. We will know shortly preliminary drilling results on other targets, would help potential buyers, but as we have seen at Haverion, needs much more drilling to get an accurate picture.

An offer could be made by Newcrest, would it be approved by GGP board?
NC could make an offer as mentioned previously to buy a stake in GGP, say 20 to 30% for a fixed sum, to give us funds to drill more on other targets. Could even JV and drill at shared costs with NC managing.

I also think something going on behind scenes. Only time will tell.

Hawkspear - you are #87 http://******************/rampchecker/rampcheckbytidm.php?search=GGP
I then checked for CNR where I occasionally post - I am #26 on there
I then checked for SML where I occasionally post - but site has crapped out