Member Info for thelearner

Impecunious - I am in the same boat as you - I had freed up funds - selling other funds - and ploughed in a large amount of cash at around 33.5p.
I did however have another 4.5k left and this morning my fill order was filled at 21.27p - which makes me feel better.
However - that raised my average to just below 5.5p - so I am not complaining.
When I bought in to GGP in 2019 - my target price I dreamed of was 10p. I raised this to 20p when the results gkept getting better. Then I stopped setting targets. When I bought at 33.5 - my gamble was first Scally drills would be good - like many I was extremely naive.

I am convinced in Haverion we will have one of the biggest finds in the last few decades. Along with a world leading partner in block/panel caving at low AISC, with a mine desperate for feed ore 35km away.
Haverion is open in 3 directions - and last RNS said there are also new targets in the Hav licence JV blocks.

Scallywag - I am still optimistic we will find something - have twice posted the story of NCM finding Cadia Ridgeway Deep - and how with drilling they pieced together the pieces of the jigsaw - went deep and found another large ore body.

We also have the Juri JV, and Rudall and now a new tenement.

I am very happy to be invested here. Look back my posts - always said this was a long term investment - with the gains measured in months/years - not days/months. Patience required. GLA

6. 1996 - Based on the review of the drilling it was decided that NC371 should be deepened. NC371 was deepened to 858.4m in February 1996. The deepened hole intersected chalcopyrite-bearing, sheeted vein style mineralisation from 610-711m. This mineralisation compared very well visually with similar style mineralisation at Cadia Hill and was considered immediately to probably be a new discovery. However assays showed that the vein zone carried very little gold - but encouraged more drilling in the area.
7. Holes were immediately drilled 350m south (NC484), and 175m north (NC485) of NC371 but the vein zone was not intersected. In May 1996 NC488 was drilled 275m east of NC371 and intersected broad Cu anomalism. It was a logical decision to drill across the mineralised trend, and then back towards other known mineralisation before drilling to the west, which is where the deposit proved to be
8. The precise siting of the discovery hole (NC498), 175m west of NC371, was made using a structural interpretation of the results from existing holes, supported by the results of the interpretation of a heli-mag survey flown in autumn 1996.
9. By November 1996 the Ridgeway site was dry enough to allow access so hole NC498 was commenced. It intersected two zones of very high-grade, porphyry stockwork mineralisation — 145m from 598m at 4.30g/t Au and 1.20% Cu; and 84m from 821m at 7.40g/t Au and 1.27% Cu ? and the deposit was discovered.

The rest they say is history - not easy though is a great you tube video below with the history of drilling at Cadia – and shows the growing resource size along the bottom. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dB77ag0Dj1w

Yes in IMHO the next 4 drills from Scallywag will be reported - regardless if they are good or bad. We are an exploration company - and when spending raised capital on explo - shareholders deserve to know results.
I am also not too concerned if they are not good - but will be delighted if some are good - why - I posted this some time ago - and shows how hard exploring for gold/cu and precious metals can be - how NCM discovered Ridgeway Deep at Cadia

https://smedg.org.au/discovery-of-the-cadia-ridgeway-gold-copper-porphyry-deposit-john-holliday-colinmcmillanian-tedder/
This is the brief story of the discovery of Cadia Ridgeway discovery - by NC mining - our Hav Partner. This is an Orebody starting under 500m of cover and 50-100 metres in diameter. Hopefully this illustrates how tough exploration is, how small in relation to the surrounding area the ore body is - so hard to find, and how rewarding exploration can be - but big finds like these are rare.
The geology at Cadia is different to Haverion area - but I'll leave that to the experts.
1. Exploration prompted by the recognition of magnetic feature. 1985 Homestake Australia drilled two RC percussion holes to downhole depths of 95m with very poor results.
2. 1991 Newcrest drilled seven further RC holes to depths of 42-90m to more comprehensively test the magnetic targets - results very poor.
3. 1992 - Cadia Hill was discovered - so step out drilling started - 200m step outs - holes 300-600m length. Cadia East discovered quickly. At Ridgeway - they seemed sure there should be mineralisation - but could not find it. Suggestion the IP survey could not see the ore body as it was too deep, but suggested something, possibly a disseminated pyrite halo above the ore
4. 1995 - The first of a total of nine holes (RGRC1) obtained the most significant result: 8m at 0.42g/t Au and 0.53% Cu from 182m, but there were 27 other narrow intercepts of +0.10g/t Au in the holes. The RGRC1 intersection is now known to be due to an extreme outer halo leakage vein above the Ridgeway deposit. Geologists then twigged the orebody might be deeper.
5. 1995 - a fence of wide-spaced core holes (NC’s 368-370) was drilled to 500+m downhole depth, across the NW-SE mineralisation trend at a position one kilometre to the east of Ridgeway. It was considered at the time that none of these holes had obtained significant intersections of mineralisation, but the presence of encouraging alteration, particularly hematite dusting of feldspars was noted.

Newcrest can buy 5% of Haverion at end of stage 4, feasibility study produced, and MRE much higher than now, and potentially still open, given other targets in the Haverion JV licence blocks.
We say currently assume GGP value based purely on HAV. So NC buying 1/6 of the MCAP at that time, assuming we have not found anything.
Or buy 1/6 of GGP now if it can be secured below 25p. Would be cheaper. Might not be easy though.

NC effectively bought 70% of HAV for $65 million US, maybe double it if they have overspent on drilling during JV. That is some ROI.

Buying a stake n GGP, you are also buying share of 100% owned assets. Could be huge finds. Could be nothing.
Juri JV will hopefully be even better for NC than Haverion. I hope so.

The worry is from July to October nobody else wanted to apply for the licence!

Fira - glad you are feeling better - yes strange the kids were affected more than you. Hope all are on the mend.

Hi Texlax - congrats on the new baby - wonderful. We are blessed with grandchildren - equally wonderful.

I think I saw you posting you are in Dubai. Was there a few times working about 7 years ago, and had previously been there in 84 - the change was incredible. I have strolled round the marina area - lovely place. Irish village - was there when tennis was on - again lovely.

I am n no way a mining expert.

Takeover thoughts. How attractive is 25 or 30% of Haverion to anyone is the question. I don't think other mining majors would be interested in this. NC also now have the right to own 75% of PRE & Black Hills. I think other majors would only get interested if it looked like we had another major find in one of our 100% owned areas, so Scallywag, or the newer licence area Rudall. Would confirm to many that GGP know what they are doing and did not just get lucky with Haverion.
The other projects probably not big enough to interest a major.

I have always thought a hedge fund or similar might be interested in GGP - but given the success of Haverion - think it would be quite difficult now for anyone to build a position on the cheap. I have always thought it would make sense for NC to build a share of GGP - they will have the right to buy 5% of Haverion at FMV - but that might be quite a large number if Haverion keeps growing. Might have been more cost effective to build a 15 - 20% stake in GGP when the shares were a lower price.

What really excites me is the news in GGP last drilling update RNS "New Targets: New targets outside of the immediate vicinity of the Havieron deposit, but within the Havieron Joint Venture area, have been identified with the potential to conduct drill testing of these targets in the future." I think NC focus will be to continue drilling to determine the PFS and FS outcomes - and they are in a huge hurry to feed Telfer - so Haverion exploration and development could continue well after the FS.
Bamps21 - always reminds us about the Cobalt - this does not seen to have been factored in to valuation - standard practice appears to focus on Au/Cu until real ore have been retrieved (once decline is built) and properly assessed.

Scallywag - I am still optimistic - even if the next 4 holes also do not find any potential ore body targets.

Short Term SP - I hope I am wrong, but not expecting any real movement North - any increase now will be steady I think based on Hav drilling results - unless we make a discovery with huge potential. We will be doing a fair bit of drilling.

With my perfect timing, I topped up a fair bit the day before and on the morning of the Scallywag RNS - knew I was gambling on Scally RNS being good - which it was not - but disappointed with my timing - not concerned. My average has increased a bit, but only 20% of current SP.
GGP - even where we are at now - is way beyond my initial expectation from this share - and I think in the long term - there is much more to come.

Fira, DVH - I've had a little investment in there - done a little bit of research - not easy - but I like the look of it. Good to know if DVH is also there.

blacksheep - I so hope you are correct. Personally I loathe shorting and spread betting - but if it get's this going northwards I'll be happy

Turbo - LTA is a complete minefield. I am now in receipt of a DB pension, had a smallish LTA charge, but had an £18K DC pot left.
Was advised to take it out, pay 55% and have a holiday. I decided to invest it to try and pay the tax with growth. This was Aug 2020. Today it is at £195K, before GGP dipped it was £284K. So I made the tax bill!
My next chargeable event is when I take it out (income not really an option for me as in high band with DB pension) - or when I hit 75. I am going to let it ride - unfortunately it's not all in GGP. I am just going to pay the 55% when I take it out.

I did read that if you leave it behind when you go, and the recipient did not receive it for over 2 years (so in trust) - the LTA tax liability did not transfer. That would only be an option if I did not make it to 75, and hoping I will.
Balancing risk - I do have a small holding here - but I consider this to be a high risk investment, while even after the GGP drop - I consider this a low risk investment, with a good chance still of multibagging.

Who knows - I am in a very fortunate position compared to many, paying a lot of tax may seem not nice - but it does mean I am very fortunate.

I do not have access to Hot Copper - but I have posted several times that the cadia ridgeway deep development would look very similar to what NC would do at Haverion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp7bm24PDwc greta Cadia video to watch

6 minutes in - "our experience at cadia will give us a competitive advantage in developing other deep underground ore bodies in the future with low aisc. "

@condor
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2020-08/200814_Newcrest%20FY20%20Full%20Year%20Results%20-%20Presentation.pdf

page 5 - Cadia AISC - mine was there already, continued to explore and find more orebody's - so capex low to develop, and opex is very low for underground block caving - especially when mine processing plant is already in place - sound familiar?
2017 $241 per oz
2018 $171 per oz
2019 $132 per oz
2020 $160 per oz

Davie - I try to think simply. NC have the option to buy 5% of Hav at FMV. Big question is how will this be calculated?
Our 30% ownership of HAV is going to give the value of our MCAP - we will have to sell 17% of this to NC.
Looking at broker price for 12.5 moz, 66p per share. Lets say 60p value for Hav - 4.2 billion shares MCAP - this is £2.5 billion. 17% of this is £425 million - now I think this may be a pie in the sky figure.
NC have known more than anything what we have at HAV. 17% of our current MCAP is £165 million. I think NC would have been smart taking a stake in GGP early doors when the SP was lower.
Then anything else found in the rest of the GGP licences comes as a free bonus.

There are other examples where JV partners take a % ownership in the junior.
But this is just pie in the sky speculation. I agree a takeover or merger with NC and another major is more likely and GGP just a small part in that.

Davie
Our excellent contributor Spy said some time ago something like maybe the Canadians are coming - just one of Spy's cryptic comments.
Everyone can interpret this however they want - there is no fact behind it - I took the Canadians to be Barrick gold - but I may be way out. Hydrogen has only reported the II's who are accumulating shares, and simply pointed out that II's could be buying for someone taking a position.
There are other examples where majors have bought a small stake in a junior.
Nobody knows - pure speculation. Depends on the strategy that every major has. Would make sense to me - but then I am not CEO or strategist for any of the majors. Hav will likely be a Tier 1 discovery being mined within 4 years of discovery - very rare. Paterson at depth is underexplored - Telfer, not Haverion and Winu discoveries. makes sense there is a lot of interest.

But as I tired to show yesterday - area is huge - and exploration and finding ore-body's is quite difficult (Cadia Ridgeway Deep mine was example I showed). Haverion was unusual - found by GGP without a lot of drilling - so either CB got very lucky, or he is very good at deciding where to put the drill. Hoping it's the latter.

sorry wrong link posted
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ruo0YrLGAwA

I have a copy of the NC Ltd Stage 1 mining Proposal for Haverion. I got it from Minex here https://minedex.dmirs.wa.gov.au/Web/sites/details/d1ce4a05-7740-4262-82fe-fb0b31cd310b under Environmental Registration report number 89453. I copied it to my laptop.

It shows on page 167 the best view of the boxcut and the exploration decline I have seen - going to the very top of the ore body at a depth of 430m. I posted a pic on twitter in a reply to one of paddy's comments.

I have heard many say we will start production when the exploration decline is completed - but I am struggling to see how, and looking for enlightenment.
I have heard Paddy speak about a stoping operation to target the sulphide zones with the highest grades, but I think this would still need some underground mining structure built - but much less than the block caving structures needed?

This video on YouTube shows Sub Level Stoping - is this the likely method for first production of the high grade sulphide zones?
https://minedex.dmirs.wa.gov.au/Web/sites/details/d1ce4a05-7740-4262-82fe-fb0b31cd310b

Is this what we will be looking at?
Once on top of the ore body - will there be some straight down deeper diamond drilling from the 420m level - to see how deep the ore body actually goes?

I saw at Cadia this is how they started mining the ridgeway section while still going deeper building the infrastructure for the block caving operation.

Shared this before but many may not have seen it - drilling and development history at Cadia - District scale discoveries for NC mining. Possibly we could end up with this in the Paterson - but nothing is certain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dB77ag0Dj1w

Also shared this before but not the one I am looking for - but Cadia Underground Operations (and above ground)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWHH25Qfq2E

8. The precise siting of the discovery hole (NC498), 175m west of NC371, was made using a structural interpretation of the results from existing holes, supported by the results of the interpretation of a heli-mag survey flown in autumn 1996.
9. By November 1996 the Ridgeway site was dry enough to allow access so hole NC498 was commenced. It intersected two zones of very high-grade, porphyry stockwork mineralisation — 145m from 598m at 4.30g/t Au and 1.20% Cu; and 84m from 821m at 7.40g/t Au and 1.27% Cu ? and the deposit was discovered.

The rest they say is history - not easy though?

https://smedg.org.au/discovery-of-the-cadia-ridgeway-gold-copper-porphyry-deposit-john-holliday-colinmcmillanian-tedder/
This is the brief story of the discovery of Cadia Ridgeway discovery - by NC mining - our Hav Partner. This is an Orebody starting under 500m of cover and 50-100 metres in diameter. Hopefully this illustrates how tough exploration is, how small in relation to the surrounding area the ore body is - so hard to find, and how rewarding exploraion can be - but big finds like these are rare.
The geology at Cadia is different to Haverion area - but I'll leave that to the experts.
1. Exploration prompted by the recognition of magnetic feature. 1985 Homestake Australia drilled two RC percussion holes to downhole depths of 95m with very poor results.
2. 1991 Newcrest drilled seven further RC holes to depths of 42-90m to more comprehensively test the magnetic targets - results very poor.
3. 1992 - Cadia Hill was discovered - so step out drilling started - 200m step outs - holes 300-600m length. Cadia East discovered quickly. At Ridgeway - they seemed sure there should be mineralisation - but could not find it. Suggestion the IP survey could not see the ore body as it was too deep, but suggested something, possibly a disseminated pyrite halo above the ore
4. 1995 - The first of a total of nine holes (RGRC1) obtained the most significant result: 8m at 0.42g/t Au and 0.53% Cu from 182m, but there were 27 other narrow intercepts of +0.10g/t Au in the holes. The RGRC1 intersection is now known to be due to an extreme outer halo leakage vein above the Ridgeway deposit. Geologits then twigged the orebody might be deeper.
5. 1995 - a fence of wide-spaced core holes (NC’s 368-370) was drilled to 500+m downhole depth, across the NW-SE mineralisation trend at a position one kilometre to the east of Ridgeway. It was considered at the time that none of these holes had obtained significant intersections of mineralisation, but the presence of encouraging alteration, particularly hematite dusting of feldspars was noted.
6. 1996 - Based on the review of the drilling it was decided that NC371 should be deepened. NC371 was deepened to 858.4m in February 1996. The deepened hole intersected chalcopyrite-bearing, sheeted vein style mineralisation from 610-711m. This mineralisation compared very well visually with similar style mineralisation at Cadia Hill and was considered immediately to probably be a new discovery. However assays showed that the vein zone carried very little gold - but encouraged more drilling in the area.
7. Holes were immediately drilled 350m south (NC484), and 175m north (NC485) of NC371 but the vein zone was not intersected. In May 1996 NC488 was drilled 275m east of NC371 and intersected broad Cu anomalism. It was a logical decision to drill across the mineralised trend, and then back towards other known mineralisation before drilling to the west, which is where the deposit pro

Juri is lower risk than our other 100% owned projects - as we have $20mill explo spend before we need any money to continue - and hopefully - we will know if it is worth continuing after spending up to $20m. NC could stop in second year if initial drills were not good - but we have control for first year.

Like many - I want as high a SP as possible - not for me but to help my kids. But I know I am going to need to be patient, and although I think SP will grow due to Hav - the growth will not be rapid, I think if only due to HAV if we got to 40p by end 2021 we would have done well.
Finding another ore body IMHO has the potential to increase SP more. But even with Hav - after we found it - took a year so see the SP start to grow .
If you find a sign of an ore body - takes time and money and drilling to prove what is there.

Good luck everyone.

TMT - thanks for clearing up the info about warrants and options.
I am very new to mining - been invested in mining companies for almost 4 years - starting at CNR, then SML then here since April 2019. SML knocked my investing confidence, which stopped me investing more here - and yes I regret that but been lucky here. Have bought all the way up - including at 33.5 just before the Scally RNS. But still lucky - my average is around 5.5.
I really believe in Haverion, and our partner NC, I think it will surpass our expectations in term of size, but will be 2-3 years from now before we see ore production, and potential revenue for the company. We will also need more money for our share of Hav than the $50million loan, as this will not cover the underground mining infrastructure, or road to Telfer.
I believe the sale of 5% of HAV to NC at FMV will more than cover these costs and the loan repayment (I hope anyway).

PRE and Blackhills, GGP are managing the exploration for the first year, funded by NC up to $20mill AUS, and if we find something yes we give up 75% to NC, but I have certainly learned exploring a big area - and having to go deep needs a fair bit of cash. So first couple of years of Juri JV, we don't need any funding.

So if we are to explore our other 100% owned projects - which is GGP's core function - we currently have some money in the bank, but we will need more.
This is hopefully where the new CEO and his past experience will prove invaluable. He has already been part of the team that grew Northstar from a small company to a multi billion company.
The options for raising funds for explo (from 2022 I would say)
Warrants
Income from share options awarded to GGP employees - and I have no issue with directors who want to take options as part of package as it brings benefits IMHO.
Bank loan - highly unlikely - banks are not keen to loan money to exploration companies - the risk it too high - but GGP are slightly different due to 25 or 30% ownership of Haverion.
Raise by share placement - and if your MCAP and SP is higher - you need to place less sahres to get the required cash amount - so timing, SP and MCAP is critical - and Haverion growing will help this, as would any other find elsewhere.
Joint Venture with large partner - NC have first option on any Scallywag JV until PH4 is completed.

I trust CB to decide where to put the drill. GGP and CB were very lucky with Hav to put the drill immediately into the ore body - it's not always that easy. Many junior explorers have run out of cash close to a discovery found later by others (in mining and oil & gas).
I think Shaun Day will be a good choice as CEO given the breath of previous experience in many fields, including finance, acquisitions and mergers in the mining sector.

I still believe in Scallywag - but it could take time. Hence I am holding and have added and not sold any.
Haverion for me is derisked - our other projects are not. Juri is lower risk th